Group 1 Qualifiers Betting Strategy
The Meadows: Saturday 22nd October
Race 2- Hume Heat 1
#7 Fanta Bale
One of the most professional chasers in the country with impeccable box manners. She usually goes straight to the front and is likely to find the early lead here. Although I thought her time of 34.78 was only solid over this trip last week, it was her first try over the distance and she should improve considerably.
#3 Jaimandy Hatty
This chaser has huge ability, but makes some mistakes in his races and it’s obviously frustrating for his followers. He drops back in distance here after his last four runs have been over 700 metres. He has been hitting the line strongly in these races but with less opportunity to wind up against these rivals, I expect him to leave his run to be too late here.
BACK (WIN) Fanta Bale for 3 units at > $2.10
LAY (WIN) Jaimandy Hatty for 2 units at < $8.50
Race 3- Hume Cup Heat 2
#3 Bruce Tycoon
He has been in fantastic form of late. He beat a star studded field at Geelong last start over an unsuitable distance in fast time. In his past four starts, he has won twice and in his two losses he had excuses. He had no luck from a wide draw at Sandown Park and in a heat of the Adelaide Cup at Angle Park he was ‘nailed’ on the line by the best greyhound in South Australia who runs in the Top Gun later in the card. He has a blistering 34.37 personal best here and is well placed.
She doesn’t seem to be going as well as what she was earlier in the year. She has lost some of her early zip at box rise and this is causing her to find stacks of trouble and be spat out the back of the field. The box draw isn’t as bad as it may appear with Margins and Paraphernalia being risky away but there are still plenty of risks associated with her for mine.
BACK (WIN) Bruce Tycoon for 3 units at > $3.10
LAY (WIN) Cardiology for 3 units at < $7.00
Race 4- Hume Cup Heat 3
#5 Brad Hill Billy BACK (1 unit at > $4.40)
Very tough race. This chaser just doesn’t seem to bring his best form to Victoria. In fact, he yet to win from seven starts in Victorian. However, I’m happy to give him one last chance here. In his recent start over this trip he was severely hampered at box rise and was lucky he didn’t take a tumble. When making ground he also received a big check down the back straight. I am hoping he misses the start and finds the rail and can ‘storm’ home up the inside to salute late.
#2 Nymeria LAY (1 unit at < $3.00)
She’s likely to find the front easily and take a power of beating. However, she has been raced sparingly of late and this is only her third start in seven weeks. She is up against some classy types in a high pressure race and she may run out of gas late and get swamped.
BACK (WIN) Brad Hill Billy for 1 unit at > $4.40
LAY (WIN) Nymeria for 1 unit at < $3.00
Race 5 – Hume Cup Heat 4
#3 Buck Forty
This chaser has freakish ability and this distance range looks perfect for him. His last two starts have been over the sprint trip where he has got too far back early and charged home. He ran a sizzling 34.14 seconds, over 595m at Sandown Park last month and he should be able to find the rail early here and finish strongly against his rivals.
#4 Snakebite Bale
He seems to continually be over-bet by punters. He has only won one of his past eight starts yet he has averaged a starting price of $3.60. He has a tricky draw here where he cannot afford to make any early mistakes. I wasn’t that impressed with his run here last week where he had a vacant box underneath him and he was in a very winnable position at the winning post the first time around but didn’t get the job done.
BACK (WIN) Buck Forty for 4 units at > $1.95
LAY (WIN) Snakebite Bale for 3 units at < $6.50
Race 9 – Hume Cup Heat 5
#4 Kuta’s Lad
A strong type that can be very hard to catch but I think he can surprise here at very big odds. This looks his ideal distance range and he can be right in the finish fresh from a short break. If he can replicate his 34.30 PB over 595m at Sandown Park, he will take beating.
He has really caught my eye in recent starts where he has been hitting the line really well. He stormed home late over the sprint distance last week to just miss and he has won his only start over this trip. If he can survive the first turn without finding any trouble he should show great mid race acceleration and be right in the finish.
BACK (WIN) Kuta’s Lad for 2 units at > $10
BACK (WIN) Reichenbach for 2 units at > $11
Race 10 – Hume Cup Heat 6
#6 Dublin Bull
He looks well drawn out wide. He likes to use plenty of the track early in his races and he should be able to find a forward position here. He shouldn’t receive much pressure from the greyhounds either side of him and I expect him to run a cheeky race at odds.
BACK (PLACE) Dublin Bull for 1 unit at > $3.00