The Betfair Insider’s Group 1 Qualifiers Betting Strategy: Hobart, Thursday 15th December – Hobart Thousand Heats

Posted: December 13, 2016

Group 1 Qualifiers Back and Lay Prospects

Hobart: Thursday 15th December

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Race 3 – 2016 Hobart Thousand Heat 1

#5 Zambora Brockie

He has found a great heat here and I am not too concerned by the squeeze draw. Is likely to lead and all eyes may be on the clock. Even if he was to miss the start the open spaces and long straight should suit him to a tee. I’m confident here.

#7 Count Baroque

He has been racing in good form of late and has been in the money in his past four starts. In addition, in 6 starts from Box 7 he has never missed a placing. Recently raced against some of the state’s best chasers and I’m confident he’ll find his way into the top three.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair  BACK (WIN) Zambora Brockie 12 units at >$1.20

Back on Betfair  BACK (PLACE) Count Baroque 2 units at >$1.90

 

Race 4 – 2016 Hobart Thousand Heat 2

#6 Blazin’ Bomber

Has been clocking up some frequent flyer points of late racing all over the country but this chaser is as professional as they come. Didn’t have much luck early in the Group 1 Brisbane Cup last start and the box draw here again could be better. However, a class runner and who can pick his way through the field nicely.Will be benefited by the long straight and will be storming home late.

#7 Keune

She has been raced far too sparingly for mine and has not won a race since April. This kennel has to be highly respected however there are some in form chasers in this field and I believe they will be too slick. This is only her third start since October 6th and I am expecting a late fade out.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair  BACK (WIN) Blazin’ Bomber 3 units at >$2.90

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Keune 3 units at <$5.50

 

Race 5 – 2016 Hobart Thousand Heat 3

#2 American Monster

If all thing’s go well he is one of the fastest dogs in country. Can be hard to catch and can make mistakes but if he finds the rail by the home turn he will be thundering home along the paint. I am happy to be with him here against these rivals.

#7 Casio Lad

Has a nice winning strike rate but I question if this will be case of too much too soon for this chaser. I am happy to risk him in the top flight here and this draw is no help. Three of seven career wins have come from Box One and there is plenty of early pace from Katey Roman and Strait Ate and they may keep him posted very wide here.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair  BACK (WIN) American Monster 3 units at >$2.20

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Casio Lad 2 units at <$5.00

 

Race 6 – 2016 Hobart Thousand Heat 4

#7 Dark Casio

This classy chaser has been handling the rise in grade beautifully. Continues to step up to the mark and in four runs from wide draws is yet to taste defeat. This is his toughest test to date but I am still expecting him to be right in the thick of it.

Betting Strategy

 

Back on Betfair  BACK (PLACE) Dark Casio 2 units at >$1.80

 

Race 7 – 2016 Hobart Thousand Heat 5

#7 Tecoma Emily

With some very classy chasers underneath her including Unlawful Entry, Vancouver Star and Maja Mahi Mahi I just can’t see her crossing these rivals cleanly and failing to do so will result in being posted wide. She has only won one race from this draw which is another tick against her and I am keen to take her on.

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY (PLACE) Tecoma Emily 3 units at <$2.50

 

Race 8 – 2016 Hobart Thousand Heat 6

#7 Wynburn Archer 

This chaser has caught my eye in his last two starts where he hasn’t had the greatest luck. Was only one length off El Grand Amigo who is currently the boom pup of Tasmania. This particular heat isn’t overly strong and he should get a nice cart into the race from Perfect Metre.

#8 Still The One

I find this chaser very tough to follow. It is hard to predict which version of this chaser will show up. Tends to either win or run last as evidenced by his past four starts. Has only won once from this draw and with the new surroundings of this circuit, I am happy to go against him.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair  BACK (WIN) Wynburn Archer 2 units at >$4.00

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Still The One 1 unit at <$4.50

 

Race 9 – 2016 Hobart Thousand Heat 7

#2 Zipping Bruiser

Has been risky early in recent runs and even though he has saluted in these runs at Warrnambool and Bendigo I believe he was a little lucky. Has a poor record from inside draws with only two of his nine career wins coming from the inside four boxes. There is a stack of talent in this race and I am predicting he will make too many mistakes.

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Zipping Bruiser 4 units at <$5.50

 

Race 10- 2016 Hobart Thousand Heat 8

#1 Black Bear Lee

This chaser has been one of New South Wales’ most consistent performers and he is a Box One bandit. Has had four wins from this draw in six starts. Dropping back in distance is a slight query but he is strong as an ox and he should be able to power to the finish line along the paint once on the rail. Adding to my confidence is Bearville Azza usually steps right out of the boxes which should give him plenty of early room.

#7 Hurunui Hamish

Tends to make plenty of mistakes in his races and  is very hard to predict. Can be risky at box rise and I can see him getting way too far back here and although he may run home nicely down the outside of the track it should be far too late and the leaders will be off and gone.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair  BACK (WIN) Black Bear Lee 3 units at >$2.40

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Hurunui Hamish 2 units at <$6.00

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