Group 1 Qualifiers Betting Strategy
Angle Park, Adelaide: Thursday September 29
Race 2 – Adelaide Cup Heat 1
#2 Invictus Rapid
He’s one of the most consistent chasers in the country and he looks well drawn close to the paint here. His last five starts have been over an unsuitable distances and had no luck whatsoever in a very competitive Group 2 Shepparton Cup field last start where he was pushed wide throughout. Back to the 515m journey suits here and he should get forward early.
She started poison odds her last start from a tricky draw and even though she received a bump in the back straight I thought she should have finished closer and didn’t really show much burn over the last 200 metres. With some classy dogs in this field, compounded with the squeeze draw, I am happy to take her on.
BACK (WIN) Invictus Rapid for 3 units at > $2.80
LAY (WIN) Fabregal for 2 units at < $7.00
Race 4 – Adelaide Cup Heat 3
He has been ‘pinging the lids’ in recent starts and has also been running strong 500 metre races of late. This circuit should suit him and I really like his box draw, right in line with the lure early and I am hoping he will be “off and gone” down the back straight. I am obviously worried about Aqua Cheetah but think the first split could prove the difference.
#7 Crisis Bale
He caught my eye in winning over this trip last start in solid time. Although this is a big step up in class, I believe he is racing in good form and looks very well drawn out wide. He is capable of running into the placings late at big odds.
BACK (WIN) Jesaulenko for 2 units at > $2.80
BACK (PLACE) Crisis Bale for 1 units at > $3.20
Race 5 – Adelaide Cup Heat 4
#7 Ritza Lenny
I thought he was drawn to perfection in the Group 1 Megastar at Dapto but he again missed the start and found himself up against it early. The leaders in the race bumped on the first turn and he found himself close enough if good enough but he disappointed me and I thought he should have finished closer. This is his first start here and is yet to win from this draw in three starts. This should present a good lay opportunity.
#8 Caustic Bale
I have always preferred backing this chaser from inside draws and I just can’t seem him avoiding any trouble on the first turn here. His only win from this draw over this trip was in a Grade 5 heat back in May this year. This is a tough heat and there is value elsewhere here.
LAY (WIN) Ritza Lenny for 2 units at < $4.00
LAY (WIN) Caustic Bale for 2 units at < $5.50
Race 6 – Adelaide Cup Heat 5
#7 Marlow Brown
He has been airborne in recent starts against some quality chasers and he has beaten them on his merits. He received a pretty hefty bump on the first turn here last week but he continued to ‘run through a brick wall’ and he ran some sizzling sectionals and was entitled to tire late. I am hoping he can continue on his winning way.
#1 Dundee Osprey
There is no doubt on paper he is the best dog in the race but I have never felt comfortable with him from inside draws. I have never trusted him at box rise and he can be hit or miss. In addition, Aeroplane Bob will be crashing towards the rail and may get in his way early. He doesn’t get going in his races until he gets to the outside of dogs and it may be too late here.
BACK (WIN) Marlow Brown for 2 units at > $4.00
LAY (WIN) Dundee Osprey for 1 unit at < $2.65
Race 7 – Adelaide Cup Heat 6
#4 Weekend Binge
He ran a sizzling 29.46 in a heat of the South Australian Derby and then followed it up with a supremely gutsy win in the Derby Final. He received some hefty bumps throughout and still pulled out plenty to score a pulsating win. He is one of those dogs where the closer he is drawn to the rail the better and that is the case here compared to last week. He is a dog to follow over the Spring Carnival.
#8 Blazin’ Bomber
He doesn’t have the early zip of the chasers around him but he is one of the most professional chasers in the country. He is capable of railing underneath dogs or going wide around them, if required he can also weave through a field beautifully. I expect him to close with a powerful finishing burst here and fill the placings.
BACK (WIN) Weekend Binge for 4 units at > $2.10
BACK (PLACE) Blazin’ Bomber for 2 units at > $1.50
Race 8 – Adelaide Cup Heat 7
#1 Bruce Tycoon
I just loved the way he was victorious in his last start at Sandown Park. He had a very unfavorable draw and still showed a great will to win along with great track sense. He returns to his favourite draw here where he has won six races and placed five times from 13 starts from the cherry. He should find a forward position here and prove too good.
#5 Sausage Sizzle
She may be the forgotten chaser of the field and could get out to silly odds. She is a little hit or miss at box rise but the squeeze draws don’t seem to concern her and I am happy to have a small interest on her. Watch for her late if she can get some early luck.
BACK (WIN) Bruce Tycoon for 2 units at > $4.00
BACK (WIN) Sausage Sizzle for 1 unit at > $10