The Betfair Insider’s Group 1 Qualifiers Betting Strategy: Albion Park, Thursday 1st December – Brisbane Cup Heats

Posted: December 1, 2016

Group 1 Qualifiers Back and Lay Prospects

 Albion Park: Thursday 1st December

 

Race 4- Sky Racing Brisbane Cup Heat 1

#1 Thirty Talks 

 He has looked airborne in his past two runs at Ipswich including winning the Ipswich Cup easily. The thing that caught my eye was he was beginning better as he has been known to miss the start over this particular circuit. He looks very well drawn here as Major Jackpot usually begins speedily and runs four or five off the fence, in theory he should run a nice cover for Thirty Talks to rail through on the first turn and explode away.

#4 Simply Magic 

This is a big step up in class for this chaser but he is generally a reliable beginner. I am hoping he doesn’t get pushed off the track on the first turn but if he can get around the first bend cleanly I believe he could run a cheeky race at huge odds. It is hard to find much value elsewhere in this event.

Betting Strategy

Back on BetfairBACK (WIN) Thirty Talks for 6 units at > $1.50

Back on BetfairBACK (PLACE) Simply Magic for 1 unit at > $4.40

 

Race 5- Sky Racing Brisbane Cup Heat 2

 #2 Zabdon Ferrari 

I tried to come up with reasons why this chaser couldn’t win and if he had a wide draw I would consider taking him on, but he has drawn perfectly. In fact, this is his best performed box. He just ticks too many boxes here to go against him. He should find the rail early and find a forward position (he may not lead) but I expect him to power home late along the fence and win. His brilliant 29.33 run at Sandown Park last month is surely too fast for this field.

#6 Cyndie’s Magic

She received a big hit at box rise last start in the Ipswich Cup which halted her early momentum. She was just getting going again at the home turn when she was checked again. Her last 50 metres of the race was good and she hit the line hard. She returns to her favourite track where she has been in the money in 30 of her 42 starts. She will cause heart palpitations early but watch her fly home late.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on BetfairBACK (WIN) Zabdon Ferrari for 3 units at > $1.60

Back on BetfairBACK (PLACE) Cyndie’s Magic for 2 units at < $2.10

 

Race 6 – Sky Racing Brisbane Cup Heat 3

 #2 Jury 

For such an inexperienced pup I thought he was really good in his most recent run in the Ipswich Cup. He was against some star chasers and he more than held his own, in fact he was going past Zabdon Ferrari on the finish line so this could be another tick for the form line if Zabdon Ferrari salutes in the previous race. He is versatile enough to lead early or come from behind. I am not saying Blazin’ Bomber can’t win either, there is just no value about him from the wide draw. Alpha Hermes could spear off on the first turn which is another plus for Jury’s chances.

#1 Fabulous Bill

He has made some mistakes in recent runs and surprisingly didn’t look comfortable when the lids opened in the Ipswich Cup and he went right out of the boxes. I don’t expect him to do that at this track as he does his best racing here, I just think there are other dogs going better than him at the minute and he has not won here in his past four.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on BetfairBACK (WIN) Jury Back for 4 units at >$4.00

Laying on BetfairLAY (WIN) Fabulous Bill for 3 units at <$5.00

 

Race 7- Sky Racing Brisbane Cup Heat 4

#5 Tripum  

The squeeze draw here should ensure that he is at a backable price. He comes back to Queensland from a luckless run in the Melbourne Cup. He was airborne in his three previous runs including winning the Lismore Cup and two slick wins at Sandown Park in a Melbourne Cup Prelude and Cup Heat the following start. That form reads well for this and I am hoping he can lead all the way here.

#3 Big Easy Red

This classy stayer looks to have found a nice heat here. He should be able to drop to the rail early and keep pushing through along the paint. He should be able to pick off most of these chasers in the run and run into the placings. He will be thundering home late.

Betting Strategy

Back on BetfairBACK (WIN) Tripum for 3 units at > $1.80

Back on BetfairBACK (PLACE) Big Easy Red for 2 units at < $1.80

 

Race 8- Sky Racing Brisbane Cup Heat 5

 #3 Outside Pass

 Impossible to go past this star chaser. She finds a very weak heat here. There isn’t much pace around her so she avoid any early pressure and have time to balance up by the first turn and explode away from these rivals. She won a heat of the Melbourne Cup last month in a sizzling 29.13 and even if she makes mistakes early she can still finish like a freight train right over the top of these rivals.

#4 Elusive Desire

He has only had one run since he fell at Lismore on the 25th of October. In his last start here on 17th November he finished fourth over this trip starting in red figures. That is not the ideal preparation for a Cup series such as this and the squeeze draw is no help. He may be lacking confidence at the moment and I am happy to pounce on this and lay him on the place exchange.

Betting Strategy

Back on BetfairBACK (WIN) Outside Pass for 10 units at > $1.50

Laying on BetfairLAY (PLACE) Elusive Desire for 3 units at < $2.50