The Betfair Insider: Rosehill, Saturday 24th September 2016

Current Track Rating: Good 4

Rail: +5m

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 23rd – 30% chance of rain 0-0.4mm

Saturday 24th – 22°C – 10% chance of rain 0mm

 

R5 Stan Fox Stakes 1500m Group 2 Set Weights 3YO

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 5 of past 5 winners raced in the Golden Rose
  • 4 of past 5 winners started $4 or less
  • 3 of past 5 winners were third up

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Good 3 +4m

1st – Press Statement – SP $1.30 56.5kg BR 2 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 5th Golden Rose Group 1 1400m Rosehill

Good 3 Rail +3m

1st – Shooting To Win – SP $4 56.5kg BR 3 – 4th up, 2 weeks, 3rd Golden Rose Group 1 1400m Rosehill

Good 3 Rail +3m

1st – Eurozone – SP $3.30 56.5kg BR 6 – 6th up, 2 weeks, 6th Golden Rose Group 1 1400m Rosehill

Kabayan – SP $2.80 54kg BR 4 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 5th Golden Rose Group 1 1400m Rosehill

Manawanui – SP $1.12 56.5kg BR 2 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 1st Golden Rose Group 1 1400m Rosehill

Major Players 

1. Impending: He finished ahead of the rest of his rivals in the Golden Rose with a 2.5L third to Astern and Omei Sword.  He had a good run in transit in that race so I don’t see any major ‘upside’ barring the fact that he will be wearing blinkers for the first time.

2. Divine Prophet: Unlike Impending, all things did not go to plan for Divine Prophet in ‘the Rose’. He was shuffled back through the field early and missed his chance to get on the back of eventual winner Astern. Despite that he still finished the race off strongly. The big data driven punters will not like the jockey change (T Berry to C Reith) so I wouldn’t be alarmed if he is ‘soft’ on the exchange late in betting.

3. Good Standing: He was the best of the ‘on pace’ brigade in the Golden Rose (indicating he’ll appreciate the further 100m) and the smaller field should really suit him down to the ground. Once again, we are presented with a ‘negative’ jockey change with Glyn Schofield replaced by Rory Hutchings however; you can be assured Rory will be keen to put his name in lights with a winnable Group 2 within his sights.

 

Betting Strategy

A six-horse field indicates a tricky affair. Impending, Good Standing and Divine Profit (in that order) do look standouts and the market agrees, although not in that order. Of the three Divine Prophet looks the worst value.

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Divine Prophet – 5 units at $2.50 or less

R6 Gloaming Stakes 1800m Group 3 Set Weights 3YO

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 5 of past 5 winners have been third up or further into their prep
  • 4 of past 5 winners have SP’d $4 or less
  • 3 of past 5 winners have come via Benchmark or Maiden races
  • 5 of past 5 winners have drawn barrier 6 or closer

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Good 4 +4m

1st – Vanbrugh – SP $2.80 56.5kg BR 5 – 6th up, 3 weeks, 1st BM70 1600m Warwick Farm

Good 3 Rail +3m

1st – Sweynesse – SP $2.40 56.5kg BR 6 – 3rd up, 1.5 weeks, 1st Spring Stakes Group 3 1600m Newcastle

Good 3 Rail +3m

1st – Complacent – SP $9 56.5kg BR 1 – 4th up, 2.5 weeks, 1st SW MDN 1400m Hawkesbury

It’s A Dundeel – SP $4 56.5kg BR 1 – 3rd up, 2.5 weeks, 1st BM70 1580m Canterbury

Strike The Stars – SP $2 56.5kg BR 5 – 6th up, 2 weeks, 3rd Chelmsford Stakes Group 2 1600m Warwick Farm

Major Players 

1. Prized Icon: He took out the Fernhill / Champagne Stakes double during the autumn and resumes this time in with a quality 2.7L 4th to Devine Prophet in the Up & Coming Stakes. Next start the stable entered him in the Chelmsford Stakes where he over raced badly and ended up running last beaten 9.2L. He’s since been sent to the trials where the blinkers came off and the stable will be happy with the way he relaxed and finished off his race. Shinn replaces O’Hara which is a positive.

2. Swear: A nice return by the lightly raced Hawkes galloper when taking out the Ming Dynasty when sitting on just a below average tempo. He needs to make the jump from 1400m to 1800m here second up which goes against the profile of horses needing to be third up into their prep.

3. High Mist: Was baulked at the 200m when a fast finishing and unlucky second to Swear in the Ming Dynasty. He went to the midweeks which has been a positive move and took out a lowly BM67 at Warwick Farm 10 days ago. He’s primed to run well third up here but is Bowman to Schofield.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Prized Icon – 4 units at $3 or more

R7 Golden Pendant 1400m Group 2 3YO+ F&M

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 2 of past 5 winners came via the Sheraco Stakes
  • 4 of past 5 winners SP’d between $9 – $51
  • 2 of past 5 winners have been first up
  • More Joyous (2012) was the last favourite to win the race at SP $1.05

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Good 4 +4m

1st – Peeping – SP $16 55kg BR 3 – 3rd up, 2 weeks + trial, 9th Sheraco Stakes Group 3 1200m Rosehill

Good 3 Rail +3m

1st – Arabian Gold – SP $9 57kg BR 2 – 1st up, 13 weeks + 2 trials, 2nd Queensland Oaks 2400m Group 1 Eagle

Good 3 Rail +3m

1st – Sharnee Rose – SP $51 55kg BR 7 – 3rd up, 1.5 weeks, 10th Tibbie Stakes Group 3 1400m Newcastle

More Joyous – SP $1.05 59kg BR 2 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 1st Sheraco Stakes Group 3 1200m Rosehill

1st Screen – SP $17 56.5kg BR 2 – 1st up, 19 weeks, 7th Dark Jewell Listed 1400m Scone

Major Players 

1. First Seal: She returns from a 20 week break with two trials under her belt, one of which was an important 1200m trial. She won first up in the Group 2 Millie Fox (1200m) last time defeating the likes of Telepathic and I’ve Got The Looks – None of the horses in that race have gone on to win a race since. This time she returns first up at 1400m which is something she has never done before.

2. Tycoon Tara: Racing in career best form. Her lasts two starts have generated ratings of 112 and 114 respectively which is between 1-2 length clear of First Seal’s first up run last time in. She drops back to mare’s grade and a relatively soft lead.

3. Zanbagh: She races particularly well first up and has been given a really nice foundation with two trials. She rushed home with fast sectionals in a 1350m Open Handicap win at Rosehill first up in November 2015 and backed that up last time with a strong first up run when 2nd to Solicit in the Group 2 Guy Walter. She looks well placed but will have to come from the rear wide on the track when the inside section will be favoured.

4. Pearls: She was very game in her return run when winning the Group 3 Toy Show over the luckless Dixie Blossoms. Last start in the Sheraco she had no luck at all when trapped wide so that can be forgiven.

5. Heavens Above: She was sound in the Toy Show first up and enjoyed the drop back to 1200m + weight relief second up when taking out the Sheraco Stakes. She’s a mare in form and should run very well.

10. Dixie Blossoms: She’s put in two great runs this time in. Placed second to Pearls in the Toy Show then she was completely blocked for a run in the Sheraco when she looked as though she would launch down the outside. There only looks a fair tempo on Saturday but she’ll be relishing the distance and will finish hard.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Tycoon Tara – 2 units at $8 or more

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) First Seal – 3 units at $4 or less

R8 Shannon Stakes 1500m Group 2 3YO+ Handicap

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 5 of past 5 winners of this race have come from 5 different lead up races
  • 4 of past 5 winners have carried 56kg or less
  • 4 of past 5 winners have SP’d $7.50 or greater

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Good 4 +4m

1st – Vashka – SP $7.50 53kg BR 8 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 7th Theo Marks Group 2 1300m Rosehill

Good 3 Rail +3m

1st – Rock Sturdy – SP $3.70 56kg BR 1 – 6th up, 1 week, 2nd Bill Ritchie Hcp Group 3 1400m Randwick

Good 3 Rail +3m

1st – Rain Drum – SP $20 53.5kg BR 1 – 1st up, 64 weeks + 2 trials, 1st BM85 2000m Rosehill

Rolling Pin – SP $15 57kg BR 8 – 5th up, 1.5 weeks, 1st Cameron Handicap Group 2 1500m Newcastle

King Lionheart – SP $8 52kg BR 9 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 1st BM80 1500m Rosehill

Major Players 

4. Hi World: Is back in grade from his previous few campaigns after contesting a number of Group 1 races. However, I just haven’t seen enough in his last two preparations to say that he is going better than the field he meets on Saturday and I feel he’s under the odds at $3.30-3.40 on the exchange.

5. Old North: Was too bad to be true first up in the Theo Marks and I’d expect a much better showing on Saturday. Having said that I couldn’t come into him until I see a much better performance.

6. Moral Victory: Was put into a BM85 three wide approaching the turn and went on with the race with jockey Claire Nutman engaged. Jason Collet replaces Nutman and the horse drops back 4kg in weight. He appears a horse in fine form despite his SP last start and going back he has solid enough runs to his name 1.9L to Happy Clapper, 1.7L to Great Esteem. Appears good value once more.

7. Caped Crusader: Comes from the BM85 taken out by Moral Victory. He’ll improve second up and drops 6.5kg from that run. He hasn’t carried less than 56kg in his career so appeals with 3kg below that here. On ratings he should put in a career best performance and can control the race.

9. Unequivocal: Finished off well first up in the key lead up race won by Moral Victory. She has a good history of finishing races off well and I imagine once again she’ll be hitting the line strongly.

 

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Hi World – 4 units at $4 or less

 

 

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

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