The Betfair Insider: Rosehill, Saturday 10th September 2016 – Golden Rose and Theo Marks Stakes

Posted: September 8, 2016

Current Track Rating: Soft 6

Rail: +2m

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 9th – Max 25°C – 70% chance of rain (0-3mm)

Saturday 10th – Max 21°C – 60% chance of rain (3-8mm)

 

R6 Golden Rose 1400m G1 3YO SW

Speed Map

golden-rose

Map Notes: I expect Thronum to cross and lead, El Divino to sit off him or one pair back and make his run 500m out and Nikitas might kick up to post Astern three wide for the stable mate Omei Sword. If this scenario plays out expect off speed runners Omei Sword and Divine Prophet to be most advantaged.

Race Profile

  • 4 of the past 5 winners have come through The Run To The Rose
  • 3 of the past 5 winners have won their lead up start
  • 3 of the past 5 winners have won from wider than barrier 10
  • 1 of the past 5 winners have been SP favs
  • 1 of the past 5 winners has come through the Up & Coming

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

1st – Exosphere – SP $3.10 fav 56.5kg BR 1 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st Run To The Rose G2 1200m

2nd – Speak Fondly SP $4.40 54.5kg BR 3 – 3rd up, 1 week 1st Furious Stakes G2 1200m

3rd – Sebring Sun SP $26 56.5kg BR 6 – 4th up, 3 weeks 3rd Up & Coming G3 1300m

1st – Hallowed Crown – SP $6.50 56.5kg BR 14 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st Run To The Rose G3 1200m Rosehill

2nd – Scissor Kick – SP $13 56.5kg BR 12 – 4th up, 3 weeks 1st Up & Coming G3 1300m Randwick

3rd – Shooting To Win – SP $17 56.5kg BR 11 – 3rd up, 1 week 2nd Ming Dynasty G3 1400m Randwick

1st – Zoustar – SP $7.50 56.5kg BR 16 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 4th Run To The Rose G3 1200m Rosehill

2nd – Dissident – SP $9 56.5kg BR 14 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 2nd Run To The Rose G3 1200m Rosehill

3rd – Bull Point – SP $31 56.5kg BR 12 – 6th up, 2 weeks 3Y BM 75 1400m Rosehill

Epaulette – SP $13 56.5kg BR 13 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 3rd Run To The Rose G3 1200m Rosehill

Manawanui – SP $7.00 56.5 kg BR 3 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 1st Up & Coming G3 1200 Warwick Farm

Major Players 

1. Astern: Is the profile standout after an impressive win in the Run To The Rose. The biggest worry is Barrier 12 and if he’ll run a strong 1400m. I suspect he can but I’m very wary he’ll be posted three wide and be left a sitting shot for Omei Sword & Divine Prophet. He’s only defeat came in the Golden Slipper where he had most likely trained off. He’s the obvious pick but now it comes down to tactics.

2. El Divino: Will be up and on the speed from barrier four and expect Hugh Bowman to make it a war of attrition late to test Astern’s ability to run the 1400m journey out strongly. He boxed on gamely first up in the Run To The Rose and he wasn’t fancied at all in betting. I’ll be very wary of the market movements as the wraps on this colt have always been big since he dead-heated in the Kindergarten Stakes with Astern as a 2yo. If anyone can improve him 4 lengths, it’s Gai Waterhouse.

3. Divine Prophet: Has plenty of raw ability and his last start win was freakish. He’ll no doubt take improvement off that run and the stable have kept out Star Turn which leads me to think this runner has his measure up in distance. His figures were slightly below Omei Sword who beat the fillies albeit over 1200m rather than the 1300m of the Up & Coming. He’ll be strong at the end of 1400m and if something goes wrong for Astern from the wide gate, he’s the colt with the most upside and may get to a big price In-Play.

7. Impending: I expected him to run through the line stronger first up in the Run To The Rose given he sat in behind El Divino who did all the work early. The inside was slightly inferior so inclined to forgive him slightly. He’ll get a soft run in transit and is bred to run out 1400m strongly so he wouldn’t completely shock.

12. Yankee Rose: Unimpressive in her trials leading into this and the profile is dead against horses first up and fillies especially. She almost broke the slipper profile apart as a 2yo so there’s no doubt she’s a star. This looks a bridge to far given she’s had a few setbacks since the autumn. Looks under the odds between $8.5-$11 in early betting.

13. Omei Sword: Hype filly who posted a high rating winning the Silver Shadow first up. She’ll get a charmed run in transit from barrier three for Joao Moreira and I’m always on high alert when Chris Waller enters a horse for a race that’s so far against the profile. He did it with Winx in last year’s Cox Plate and we all know what happened there.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Divine Prophet – 3 units at $5 or more.

Laying on Betfair LAY (PLACE) Yankee Rose – 10 units up to $5

R7 Theo Marks Stakes 1300m Group 2 3YO+ Handicap

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 2 of the past 5 winners have been 1st up
  • 4 of the past 5 winners have been males
  • 5 of the past 5 winners have carried 56kg or less
  • The race can be a good guide to finding the Epsom winner

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Winx – BR 11 54.5KG SP $3.40 – 1st up, 13 weeks + 1 trial, 1st QLD Oaks Group 1 2200m Doomben

Cluster – BR 4 53KG SP $3 – 4th up, 2 weeks, 2nd BM85 1200m Rosehill

Riva De Lago – BR 7 55KG SP $13 – 2nd up, 3 weeks, 8th Show County Quality Group 3 1200m Warwick Farm

Ambidexter – BR 7 56KG SP $7 – 1st up, 17 weeks +1 trial, 2nd Frank Packer Plate Group 3 2000m Randwick

Master Of Design – BR 8 52KG SP $21 – 3rd up, 4 weeks, 9th Starlight Stakes Listed 1100m Rosehill

Major Players 

4. Tycoon Tara: She won the Missile first up on a heavy track and backed that up in the Show County on a dry surface three weeks ago at Randwick. She’s a mare in form and Rosehill should suit her despite never racing at the track. This in form mare should get a nice run with Shinn engaged and I can see her trading very short at the 200m on the exchange.

5. Counterattack: The first of the 4YO’s, Counterattack is a horse that Chris Waller has always taken his time with. He ran well against some of the best 3YO’s including close up placings behind the likes of Japonisme and Southern Legend. He’s trialled well off a Queensland preparation and has the blinkers on for the first time for a first up assignment. His record at 1300m is rock solid and is the value runner.

7. Mackintosh: After dominating the 3YO staying racing during the Queensland Carnival, Mackintosh returns in the deep end against open age at Group 2 level. He’s trialling really well suggesting he hasn’t taken a step backwards but I believe he’ll need the run as there are better credentialed horses over the 1300m.

8. Old North: He comes through the traditionally strong Frank Packer Plate form which follows the same path as the 2012 winner Ambidexter. He always struck me as a progressive 3YO and will get his chance with just the 53kg on Saturday to show us he is in for a big spring. While he looks at his best over 2000m I can see him pulling out a huge run first up.

9. Southern Legend: He was fantastic first up in a 1000m BM85 at Randwick running scintillating time. He drops a massive 7kg from that run but makes the awkward step up to 1300m. The 21 days between runs is ideal and has won at 1200m on this track. He rates highly but looks well found at $3.00 or less in early markets.

10. Snoopy: He’s run well at both his Sydney starts this time in and some luck from the gate he can be right in the finish here. He perhaps lacks a ‘knockout blow’ from a sectional times point of view, hence why I can’t come into him confidently.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Counterattack – 3 units at $4.40 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Old North – 2 unit at $8 or more

 

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

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