The Betfair Insider Ratings: Geelong, Wednesday 19th October 2016

Posted: October 19, 2016 at 12:21 pm

Betfair Insider

Race comments, confidence and ratings across the entire card at Geelong.

Geelong Markets R1 – 9

R1 B&B Aluminium BM64 | 1400m | 12:30pm

Ruthven was a strong on pace winner on debut, giving him a rating that sits on top of the opposition here. Of even more appeal is that being from the Maher stable he’s likely to still have plenty of scope for improvement.

Race Confidence: Good

Runner Name Rating
8. Ruthven $2.50
6. Royal Applause $5.50
3. Violent Snow $7.50
4. Kollama Bay $11.00
2. Sir Nemo $14.00
9. Startacular $21.00
1. Magwitch $26.00
7. Wild Cavalier $31.00
5. Rose Of Texas $101.00
10. Sleepless Nights $31011.00

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R2 IGA Liquor BM78 | 2400m | 1:00pm

A race that looks more competitive than the current market suggests. Morning Mix has most appeal at the prices, far from disgraced when second at Sandown last start and is still lightly raced with scope to improve. The Hickmott stable has a superb record this season with their 2000m+ horses.

Race Confidence: Average

Runner Name Rating
1. Morning Mix $2.90
3. Lips Areios $3.40
6. Hierarchal $7.50
7. Super Haze $7.50
5. Margin Trader $21.00
9. Dreaded $26.00
2. Barwon $51.00
4. Nigelissima $101.00
10. Arite Guru $301.00

Best Profile

R3 Geelong Australia BM 78 | 1500m | 1:35pm

Pay Up Bro was just fair over 2000m last start, but had two good figures in his runs prior over 1400m that would win this and drops back to 1500m, which gives him a chance to repeat them.

Race Confidence: Average

Runner Name Rating
1. Pay Up Bro $3.40
3. Eljetem $8.50
11. Movie $9.00
5. Dance Of Life $10.00
9. Amber Cavalier $10.00
6. Gallic Chieftain $13.00
8. Volontiers $18.00
10. Eye The World $18.00
7. Kapset $26.00
4. Wheatsheaf Flyer $33.00
2. Saturday Sorcerer $41.00

Best Profile

R4 No Fuss Event Hire BM70 | 1700m | 2:10pm

Polar Vortex drops significantly in grade here on recent runs and brings two ratings that are comfortably clear of the opposition here. 1700m looks suitable and he should settle just off midfield.

Race Confidence: Good

Runner Name Rating
6. Polar Vortex $2.30
8. Ill Fly Away $5.00
3. Alrouz $14.00
1. Extra Choice $21.00
4. Making Mayhem $21.00
5. Ten Goals $21.00
11. Riverina Bella $26.00
12. Indexes $26.00
2. Get The Picture $31.00
7. Seul Spirit $51.00
9. Walled City $51.00
10. Warrior Of Justice $51.00

Best Profile

R5 Shojun Dual Choice BM84 | 1200m | 2:45pm

Demonstrate was very good winning on the Pakenham Synthetic last start and while that’s always a query back to turf, he has previously shown similar talent racing in stakes class races, which provides some confidence that he can repeat. He looks very hard to beat here.

Race Confidence: Average

Runner Name Rating
7. Demonstrate $2.00
12. Lord Von Costa $4.60
13. Villopoto $13.00
9. Nordic Empire $21.00
14. Dodging Bullets $21.00
1. Magnus Reign $26.00
10. Baron Archer $41.00
3. Mandla $51.00
6. Cauthen $51.00
16. Jersey Whistler $51.00
4. Solsay $61.00
5. Inspector $67.00

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R6 Emsley Lodge Geelong Classic | 2200m | 3:20pm

Pretty Punk looks an emerging staying filly of promise. She was outstanding over the 1800m at Morphettville last start, running very fast sustained sectionals to come from the back and beat another promising distance 3YO in Silvera. That form looks to stack up especially well in this race and the step up in distance looks ideal for her. Great value in the market.

Race Confidence: Good

Runner Name Rating
2. Pretty Punk $3.30
1. Theanswermyfreind $4.60
4. Nemrud $6.50
5. Tumultuos $10.00
3. Back To The Bowler $14.00
7. All Out Of Love $31.00
12. Hollywood Mo $31.00
6. Captain Duffy $41.00
9. Zoffman $51.00
16. Pablos Express $51.00
10. Dornier $101.00
14. Evelyn $101.00
11. Mr Aloof $201.00
17. Jamieson $201.00
13. Stately Boy $301.00
18. Kalalo $501.00

Best Profile

R7 Geelong Cup | 2400m | 4:00pm

A very difficult race to assess with half the field overseas runners have their first start in Australia. Lucques is the best of the locals who was just okay behind Almandin last start but has a number of prior very solid ratings. He may lack the class to overcome Oceanographer and Kinema who look weighted to win.

Race Confidence: Low

Runner Name Rating
9. Oceanographer $4.00
4. Kinema $4.20
2. Grey Lion $6.00
5. Qewy $6.00
7. Lucques $7.00
6. Swacadelic $34.00
10. All I Survey $41.00
11. Wells $51.00

Best Profile

R8 Rosemont Stud Stakes | 1200m | 4:40pm

A very difficult race with a stack of potential winners here.

Race Confidence: Low

Runner Name Rating
4. A Lotta Love $9.00
8. Andrassy $10.00
12. Painted Firetail $10.00
3. Forgeress $11.00
7. Mossin Around $11.00
9. Rockolicious $12.00
14. Lake Como $13.00
15. Zara Bay $15.00
11. Not A Happy Camper $18.00
2. Exclusive Lass $21.00
10. Jalan Jalan $21.00
19. Swiss Kiss $31.00
13. All About Rhythm $51.00
5. Anaphora $81.00

R9 Roderick Insurance Brokers BM70 | 1200m | 5:20pm

A competitive race with a bit of uncertainty, so market leads could prove valuable. Miles of Krishan is lightly raced, coming off a last start win and has a number of ratings that make her hard to beat against this field. Chippenham is first up and double figure odds, but does have multiple ratings that put him right in the finish of this race. If there’s some market support for him then he’s a definite value runner.

Race Confidence: Average

Runner Name Rating
15. Miles Of Krishan $5.50
10. Du Sumpent $6.50
1. Harbour Grey $7.50
9. Chippenham $7.50
5. Canelo $13.00
17. Castelo $13.00
2. Black Vanquish $16.00
16. Magna Rossa $16.00
18. Buckler $21.00
3. Kiss Me Ketut $31.00
13. Gold Heist $34.00
20. Big Buddie $61.00
11. Sparsholt $67.00

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