The Betfair Insider: Randwick, Saturday 3rd September 2016

Current Track Rating: Soft 6

Rail: +6m

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 2nd – Max 19°C. Only 95% chance of rain (30-40mm)

Saturday 3rd – Max 21°C. 80% chance of rain (6-15mm)

 

R8 Tramway Stakes 1400m Group 2 3YO + SW&P

Speed Map

Tramway Stakes

Race Profile

  • 3 of the past 5 winners have been 1st up
  • 5 of the past 5 winners have drawn barrier 5 and wider
  • 4 of the past 5 winners had an SP of $9 or greater
  • The Warwick Stakes & Show County have produced one winner each of the past 5 years

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Hooked – BR 14 57KG SP $9 – 1st up, 15 weeks + 2 trials, 11th Hollindale Group 2 1800m Gold Coast

Lucia Valentina – BR 5 56KG SP $9 – 1st up, 14 weeks + 2 trials, 3rd ATC Oaks Group 1 2400m Randwick

Malavio – BR 14 57.5KG SP $17 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 4th Show County Group 3 1200m Warwick Farm

Tagus – BR 5 54KG SP $41 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 7th Warwick Stakes Group 2 1400m Warwick Farm

Sincero – BR 5 58KG SP $5 – 1st up, 10 weeks + 1 trial, 1st Stradbroke Handicap Group 1 1400m Eagle Farm

Major Players 

1. Le Romain: A nice return by Le Romain in the Show County only being run down in the last 75 metres or so by eventual winner Tycoon Tara. Stepping up to 1400m should suit and has a real liking for the track (4 starts, 2 wins, 2 placing’s). I think he’s one run away from his top and will be against him with the top weight here.

2. Happy Clapper: Resumes after a great campaign running placing’s in the Group 1 Doncaster and the Queen Elizabeth. The wet track and the inside draw could make things difficult for him in what looks a sprint home. Expect him to run on well but he’s probably one to wait for until second or third up.

5. Sadler’s Lake: A fantastic return in the Spring Preview, Sadler’s Lake saves his best for wet tracks and has a great record early in his preparation. Hugh Bowman takes over from Tommy Berry which is a great switch. I expect him to settle much closer here and his first up run will have him primed for this.

9. Dibayani: Returned with a pleasing run up the straight at Flemington giving Sooboog 5kg in the Aurie’s Star. Going back to the Apollo earlier this year he ran a creditable fourth to Winx after doing way too much work out wide and then backed that up with a second to the mighty Mare in the Chipping Norton. He drops 5kg from WFA into this and has the right profile to win this race.

11. Heavens Above: Quality mare but taking on a decent field but looks short enough at this stage.

Betting Strategy

Taking on a number of well credentialed runners here with Saddlers Lake and Dibayani profiling well at the conditions of this race.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Saddlers Lake – 2.5 units at $7 or more.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Dibayani – 3 units at $6 or more.

R9 Concorde Stakes 1000m Group 3 3YO + SW&P

Speed Map

Concorde Stakes

Race Profile

  • 3 of the past 5 winners were been 1st up
  • 4 of the past 5 winners had an SP of $9+
  • 5 of the past 5 winners have jumped from barrier 5 or wider
  • The Show County & Warwick Stakes have provided one winner each over the past 5 years

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Shiraz – BR 8 58KG SP $4.40 – 4th up, 4 weeks, 1st Aurie’s Star Group 3 1200m Flemington

Wouldn’t It Be Nice – BR 5 56KG SP $13 – 8th up, 2 weeks, 4th BM80 1000m Randwick

Decision Time – BR 14 57.5KG SP $17 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 4th Show County Group 3 1200m Warwick Farm

Tiger Tees – BR 6 58KG SP $5 – 1st up, 11 weeks + 1 trial, 8th Stradbroke Handicap Group 1 1600m Stradbroke Handicap

Decision Time – BR 3 58KG SP $4.80 – 1st up, 24 weeks + 2 trials, 1st Fireball Listed 1100m Warwick Farm

Major Players 

1. Japonisme: First up last campaign he was run down by Terravista and Chautauqua in the dying stages of the Group 1 Lightning at Flemington. Next start he dropped back to handicap conditions in the Newmarket and while brave, was beaten into fifth by The Quarterback. He’ll line up with 60kg’s for the first time in his career and despite mapping well I’m against him with this impost.

2. Kinglike: His first full preparation for Gerald Ryan after a quality seven run career beginning with Peter Moody. His first up performance at this course and distance was second placing to English in the Group 2 Challenge Stakes. That’s the best guide to the quality of this horse. He followed it up two runs later moving up to 1200m when going down in a blanket finish when fourth to Japonisme in the Group 2 Arrowfield at Randwick. Like Japonisme, he’s not well suited at the weights but his fresh record is impressive.

3. Wouldn’t It Be Nice: The winner of the 2014 edition of this race. He looks to get conditions in his favour once again despite being an outsider ($21 available). He will get fence runs and there is good speed drawn around him giving him last shot. I think he was unlucky not to win the Group 2 Missile after strangely being restrained off speed on a day when on pace runs were favoured. Knockout.

5. Federal: He tries 1000m for the first time and from the barrier he will ease back to last. He isn’t poorly weighted after putting in equal best of day figures last time first up from a long spell. At 1200m I would be very keen.

6. Boss Lane: He comes from the Show County Quality which has been a good lead up race for this over the years. Surprisingly, he runs some of his bets races back at the 1000m distance and enjoys the sting out. He was a great run in the Challenge Stakes (English / Kinglike) back in March and should he get some luck from the draw, he has the numbers on the board to take this race out at nice odds.

7. Craftiness: Returns off a 24 week break here and has had a nice quiet trial in preparation. He ran second in this race last year and although he raced well was not able to get a win during the 2015-16 season. Drawn well, gun jockey – a good chance.

10. Hidden Pearl: On speed runner from Queensland who’s come back from a spell and won impressively on two occasions. The 6YO Mare has run good time for Queensland standards and is well in at the weights, dropping 5kg’s from her last start. While the facts and figures look good for her the profile tells us this is a big ask, especially taking on better performed runners on a different track for the first time.

11. Felines: The Benchmark 85 at Randwick two weeks ago was a strong race with Southern Legend and Haptic boasting strong credentials. Felines carried 60kg on that occasion and drops 6kg for this run. The race was won in scintillating time and if she can reproduce that run she will be winning here based on ratings. She goes best on relatively dry tracks so it’s a big weather watch for her. Perfectly placed.

Betting Strategy

I’ll be opposing those at the top of the weights and focusing on two runners who are extremely well placed and love the course and distance.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Boss Lane – 3 units at $7 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Felines – 3 unit at $10 or more

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

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