The Betfair Insider: Randwick, Saturday 20th August 2016

Posted: August 19, 2016 at 11:42 am

Current Track Rating: Soft

Rail: +3m

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 19th – Max 24°C – only 10% chance of rain.

Saturday 20th – Max 17°C – 60% chance of rain, 0-2mm.

 

R6 Show County Quality 1200m Group 3 3YO +

Speed Map

Show County Quality

Race Profile

  • 3 of the past 5 winners have been 1st up
  • 2 of the past 5 winners last raced in the George Ryder Handicap
  • 4 of the past 5 winners have drawn barrier 6-8
  • 5 of the past 5 winners carried 56kg or less

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

(Good) – Randwick

Decision Time – BR 2 54kg SP $31 – 8th up, 7 days, 4th BM90 1200m Rosehill

(Heavy) – Randwick

Terravista – BR 6 56kg SP $2.30 – 1st up, 21 weeks, 11th George Ryder Stakes Group 1 1500m Rosehill

(Good) – Warwick Farm

Rebel Dane – BR 7 54.5KG SP $2.50 – 1st up, 20 weeks, 10th George Ryder Stakes Group 1 1500m Rosehill

(Good) – Warwick Farm

Moment Of Change – BR 8 54KG SP $1.75 – 1st up, 20 weeks, 1st 3Y Handicap 1400m Caulfield

(Heavy) – Warwick Farm

Skytrain – BR 6 53KG SP $7.50 – 4th up, 4 weeks, 2nd At Sea Handicap 1200m Warwick Farm

Major Players 

3. Vashka: The talented Vashka returns to the race track for the first time since October last year. He managed to a close up third in this race last year carrying just the 54kg. On Saturday he’ll jump up to 58.5kg after winning two Group races last time in. I think he’s come back a better horse looking at his trials but he looks well found.

5. Le Romain: The Group 1 Randwick Guineas (1600m) winner resumes here after two impressive trials and a 17-week spell.  He’s got a fantastic record at the track including a win over 1000m and while his form looks better over longer it looks as though he has come on again after a break. The only thing against him is the profile favouring those horses getting a bit of weight relief but in what looks a weak edition of the race I suspect him to be right in the finish.

6. Boss Lane: A terrific little horse who puts in his best performances at Randwick (17 starts for 5 wins). He’s trialled up well twice this prep and raced in career best form last time in. He meets Vashka better off at the weights on their encounter in the 2015 renewal of this race and profiles perfectly well after a strong run behind English in the Challenge Stakes

7. Tycoon Tara: She won the Missile Stakes first up for the Snowden’s on a bog track. While she’ll race in the right spot I have to think that her heavy track victory last start is hardly a guide for Saturday’s race and looks to be ‘over valued’ by the market despite her talents.

8. Mount Nebo: Gets his preferred conditions on Saturday with Randwick’s ‘heavy 10’ surface brining him unstuck on a number of occasions. On Saturday he’ll get a lovely weight drop (4.5kgs) and his preferred track condition (sting out) and looks a good bet on the minimum.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Boss Lane – 2 units at $7 or more.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Mount Nebo – 2 units at $76 or more.

R7 Warwick Stakes 1400m Group 2 WFA 3YO +

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 4 of the past 5 winners have been second up
  • 4 of the past 5 winners have a SP of $5.50 or less
  • 1 of the past 5 winners has been a mare

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

NB: 2014 – 2015 Randwick 2013 – Earlier Warwick Farm

(Good) – Randwick

Royal Descent – BR 3 57kg SP $5.50 – 1st up 14 weeks, 3rd Queen Elizabeth G1 2000m Randwick

(Heavy) – Randwick

Tiger Tees – BR 7 59 kg SP $5.50 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 1st Auries Star G3 1200m Flemington

(Good) – Warwick Farm

Veyron – BR 2 59kg SP $21 – 6 wk Freshen, 2nd up, 5th 19k Handicap 1400m Ruakaka NZ

(Good) – Warwick Farm

Pinwheel – BR 11 59kg SP $4.40 – 2nd up, 1st Missile Stakes G3 1200m Warwick Farm

(Heavy) – Warwick Farm

Pinwheel – BR 10 59kg SP $2.70 – 2nd up, 3rd Missile Stakes G3 1200m Warwick Farm

Major Players 

2. Hartnell: Raced well fresh this time last year over a mile first up in the Chelmsford. He looks best suited to a mile so expect him to be more forward here. Will lead and give a big kick at the top of the straight but needs Winx pocketed to win. Looks hard to beat in a fortnight’s time in the Chelmsford if Winx isn’t there….

4. Rebel Dane: Was a touch disappointing in the Missile Stakes failing to pick up Tycoon Tara on the heavy 10 surface. The profile days he’s the horse to beat but champions smash apart race profiles. No knock at 1400m and rates clear second pick for mine.

5. Vanbrugh: Loved his trials and looks best suited at 1600m the Epsom looks to be his target race. He’ll be more forward then he was in the Hobartville and is suited by a small field. Can run a place at big odds.

6. Winx: Champion mare that’s fresh of a successful surgery. Her trials have been fine and typical of Chris Waller. If she’s 100% they won’t beat here and only bad luck will have her beaten. Bowman only needs to keep her traffic free which he will.

7. Lucia Valentina: Can pull out a run fresh but expect her to be cuddled buried last on the fence. Prefer to be with her 3rd up our deeper into her preparation and expect her to drift heavily from $6.00 in early markets.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Winx – 10 units at $1.40 or more

R8 Toy Show Quality 1300m Group 3 3YO + F & M

Speed Map

Toy Quality Stakes

Race Profile

  • 3 of the past 5 winners have been 1st up
  • 1 of the past 5 winners have been on a 7-day backup
  • 5 of the past 5 winners have drawn barrier 6-9
  • 1 of the past 5 winners carried greater than 56kg

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

(Good)

Amicus – BR 6 57.5KG SP $6 – 1st up, 19 weeks, 13th Queen Of The Turf Group 1 1600m Rosehill

(Heavy)

My Sabeel – BR 7 54KG SP $9.50 – 8th up, 1 week, F & M BM 75 1400m Rosehill

(Good) – Warwick Farm

Hidden Kisses – BR 9 54KG SP $7 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 1st F & M BM 85 1200m Randwick

(Good) – Warwick Farm

Dystopia – BR 9 55.5KG SP $4.40 – 1st up, 16 weeks, 10th Hawkesbury Crown LR 1300m Hawkesbury

(Heavy) – Warwick Farm

Red Tracer – BR 9 56KG SP $1.90 – 1st up, 17 weeks, 1st James Carr LR 1400m Randwick

Major Players 

1. Heavens Above: Tim Martin has a lovely Mare in Heavens Above who won twice at Randwick last preparation and finished no worse off than third in her last seven starts. She resumes with no trial this time which is a question mark but I think she’ll sprint well fresh regardless. Hugh Bowman takes the ride and will nurse her through with 59kg. The class mare of the field but gives at least 4.5kg to all runners.

3. Pearls: Is a progressive Mare from the Godolphin yard. She needs a bit of sting out which she should get on Saturday. Her best run to date was in the Group 2 Tea Rose at Randwick on a soft track and was able to place in the Group 3 P J Bell last time in, also on a slow track. She’s trialled well and looks a tad stronger. A good chance.

4. Elle Lou: She’s absolutely flying this time in winning 3 of her last 6 starts. She drops at least 4kg from her past 6 races and this race looks an absolute target race for a stable who knows how to place their horses better than most. She looks to have a few lengths up her sleeves on the majority of the field.

5. Pioneering: Well found in the market considering she has been winning races at Rosehill & Canterbury and in much slower ratings races than Elle Lou from the same stable. Happy to oppose on Saturday.

6. Dixie Blossoms: A really promising galloper from the Quinton yard and has been trialling the absolute house down. She has had only had one preparation to date and all 5 career starts have been in mid-week meetings. I expect her to put in a bold performance on Saturday as she looks to have come back bigger and better than ever but I just can’t get her ahead of Elle Lou at this stage of their careers.

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Pioneering – 10 units at $7 or less.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Elle Lou – 6 units at $4 or more.

 

 

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

Related Articles