The Betfair Insider: Randwick, Saturday 1st October 2016

Posted: September 29, 2016 at 9:37 am

Current Track Rating: Good 4

Rail: +3m

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 30th – Max 18. Possible shower, windy. 30% chance of rain (0-1mm)

Saturday 1st – Max 22. Partly cloudy. 5% chance of rain (0mm).

 

R6 Flight Stakes G1 1600m 3YO Fillies

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 4 of past 5 winners last raced in the Tea Rose
  • 5 of past 5 winners finished 1st or 2nd at their previous start
  • 4 of past 5 winners have been the SP favourite
  • 4 of past 5 winners jumped from barriers 3-6

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Rail True, Good 3

Speak Fondly – SP $2.30 56kg BR 5 – 4th up, 3 wks 2nd Golden Rose G1 1400m Rosehill

Rail True, Good 3

First Seal – SP $2.30 56kg BR 4 – 4th up, 3 wks 1st Tea Rose G2 1400m Randwick

Rail +3m, Good 3

Guelph – SP $1.45 56kg BR 6 – 3rd up, 2 wks 1st Tea Rose G2 1400m Randwick

Norzita  – SP 5.50 56kg BR 3 – 6th up, 2 wks 2nd Tea Rose G2 1500m Randwick

Streama – SP $2.80 56kg BR 9 – 4th up, 2 wks 1st Tea Rose G2 1500m Rosehill

Major Players 

1. Yankee Rose: This years Sires Produce winner continued her unorthodox racing pattern of attacking a feature Group 1 race first up. Despite ‘chatter’ that she had ‘spelled’ poorly and had trialled plainly, she managed to jump to the front in the Golden Rose and really toughed out a descent 3.5L third to Astern. I’d imagine that run will bring her on in leaps and bounds which makes her extremely hard to beat on Saturday.

2. Omei Sword  (SCRATCHED): She ran second in the Golden Rose which fits the pattern of finishing either first or second at your previous start to win this race. The step up to 1600m is of some concern but she did run right through the line.

5. Sezanne: She relaxed nicely in the Tea Rose and I was really impressed by the way she hit the line. Whilst the Tea Rose is historically the best formline for the Flight Stakes I’ll bypass it this year as Omei Sword appears to be the benchmark of the new season 3YO fillies.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Yankee Rose – 5 units at $3 or greater.

R7 Epsom Handicap G1 1600m 

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 4 of past 5 winners 4yos
  • 3 of past 5 winners SP favourites
  • 4 of past 5 winners 3rd up or deeper into preparation
  • 4 of past 5 winners drawn barrier 10 or wider
  • 4 of past 5 winners have carried 53kg or less

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Rail True, Good 3

1st – Winx – SP $3.10 fav 57kg BR 12 – 2nd up, 3 wks 1st Theo Marks G2 1300m Rosehill

2nd – Ecuador – SP $26 56kg BR 6 – 3rd up, 2 wks 4th Cameron Handicap G3 1500m Newcastle

3rd – Sons of John – SP $18 56kg BR 14 – 3rd up, 3 wks 2nd Theo Marks G2 1300m Rosehill

Rail True, Good 3

1st – He’s Your Man – SP $5.50 fav 52.5kg BR 10 – 5th up, 3 wks 1st Kingston Town G3 2000m Rosehill

2nd – Royal Descent – SP $6.50 55.5kg BR 11 – 4th up, 2 weeks 2nd George Main G1 1600m Randwick

3rd – Hooked – SP $17 52kg BR 14 – 4th up, 3 weeks 1st Cameron Handicap G3 1500m Newcastle

Rail +3m, Good 3

1st – Boban – SP $6 53kg BR 10 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st Ritchie G3 1400m Randwick

2nd – Streama – SP $4.60 fav 54.5kg BR 11 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st George Main G1 1600m Randwick

3rd – Toydini – SP $6.00 54kg BR 13 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 1st Cameron Handicap G3 1500m Newcastle

Fat Al – SP $4.60 fav 52kg BR 6 – 3rd up, 1 week 3rd Shannon G2 1500m Rosehill

Secret Admirer – SP $9 52.5kg BR 16 – 4th up, 1 week 4th Shannon G2 1500m Rosehill

Major Players 

1. Palentino: Winner of the Group 1 Makybe Diva, he presents fourth up with the three weeks between runs. He produced a devastating burst last start, eventually putting one length on the Group 1 winner Black Hart Bart. He ticks the box as being a 4YO however has been left as the top weight which history says is a big disadvantage in this race.

2. Hauraki: Has returned in career best form after a litter of minor placings in his previous two campaigns. First up he was unwanted by the market on a wet Randwick track but was able to put away the field with consummate ease in the Group 2 Tramway Stakes. Next start he backed that run up with arguably a better run when taking on Winx all the way, eventually beaten 1.3L in the Group 1 George Main also at Randwick. He’s come back better this time in and although history says he’s disadvantaged at the weights he actually drops 3kg into this.

4. Happy Clapper: Runner up in the Group 1 Doncaster Handicap in 2015, he jumps 5kg from his second placing to Winx where he ran a scintillating rating of 117. The Webster’s have him ready to peak third up but has drawn a poor gate for him in one. He looks a top three chance for mine.

8. Mackintosh: Winner of the Group 2 Theo Marks. He presents here second up which appears one run short and doesn’t receive the same weight drop as many others.

9. McCreery: Chris Waller has put this gelding on a similar path to that of He’s Your Man with victory in the 2000m Kingston Town. He trounced his rivals on that occasion and was eased down over the last 100m making the margin extremely flattering to his rivals. I’m expecting a solid tempo on Saturday and that will suit McCreery down to the ground.

11. Vanbrugh: He drops 7.5kgs (down to 51kg) from his two WFA runs this time in. He needs to find 3.5L on Hauraki from the George Main but he was four weeks between runs that day so arguments are that he can. His 3YO form looks a tad hollow but benchmarking him against Palentino he’s remarkably well weighted and fits the profile as the winner.

13. Fabrizio: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott have snuck this lightly raced 5YO gelding into the field. He ran an absolute ripping race at this course and distance trouncing his rivals and doing so 1.5 seconds quicker than Winx on the same day! The 7.5kg weight drop from that run will be a relief and although now well found (around $9) is a really progressive horse who could take out a winnable Epsom.

 

Betting Strategy

As always an intriguing edition of the Epsom however it does look a couple of lengths weaker than previous years.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Hauraki – 3 units at $4.50 or more.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) McCreery – 2 units at $8 or more.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Vanbrugh – 1 unit at $17 or more.

R8 The Metropolitan G1 Handicap 2400m

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 5 of past 5 winners 4th up or deeper in their preparation
  • 2 of past 5 winners have been SP FAV
  • 1 of past 5 winners have been last start winners (2012 Glencadam Gold)
  • 4 of past 5 winners have been 2 weeks between runs

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Rail True, Good 3

1st – Magic Hurricane – SP $3.10 fav 57.5kg BR 1 – 6th up, 2 wks 2nd Hill Stakes G2 2000m Randwick

2nd – Beaten Up – SP $10 58kg BR 2 – 4th up, 2 weeks 4th Hill Stakes G2 2000m Randwick

3rd – Havana Cooler – SP $10 55.5kg BR 10 – 4th up, 3 weeks 6th Kingston Town Classic G3 2000m Rosehill

Rail True, Good 3 (DQ – 1st Junoob)

1st – Opinion – SP $12 56kg BR 14 – 4th up, (1 x Trial) 3 weeks 10th Kingston Town G3 2000m Rosehill

2nd – Araldo – SP $31 55.5kg BR 16 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 6th Naturalism G3 2000m Caulfield

3rd – Kingdoms – SP $7.5 55.5kg BR 5 – 5th up, (1x Trial) 3 wks 2nd Kingston Town G3 2000m Rosehill

Rail +3m, Good 3

1st – Seville – SP $10 55.5kg BR 8 – 4th up, 2 weeks 9th Naturalism G3 2000m Caulfield

2nd – Julienas – SP $6 55kg BR 12 – 5th up, 1 weeks 1st C Stephen G3 2400m Randwick

3rd – Sneak A Peak – SP $19 54.5kg BR 10 – 4th up, 2 weeks 3rd Hill Stakes G2 2000m Randwick

Glencadam Gold – SP 2.80 fav 53kg BR 4 –  4th up, 2 wks 1st N’castle Cup G3 2300m Newcastle

The Verminator – SP $21 52kg BR 16 – 11th up, 2 wks 5th N’castle Cup G3 2300m Newcastle

Major Players 

1. Who Shot The Barman: Chris Waller’s veteran stayer. He’s fourth up and has had all four runs at Randwick this time in. His closing final 200m to Hartnell in the Hill Stakes was quick, 11.75 to be exact and he was strongest on the line. Placed second in the BMW so you know he’ll run the distance.

4. Magic Hurricane: Last years winner of the of the Metropolitan, Magic Hurricane wasn’t quiet as impressive in this years Hill Stakes as he was last time. He raced a touch keen and you don’t want to be backing a horse over 2400m who isn’t in a relaxed frame of mind.

5. Sir John Hawkwood: His first run for the John Thompson yard was very promising when going first up into the 2000m Kingston Town Stakes and running a gallant second to McCreery. He carried an addition 4.5kg on McCreery who looks a great chance in the Epsom. This horse likes his runs spaced and the new stable could add the additional length or two to his form, which puts him right in this as a major player.

7. Sacred Master: The last start Newcastle Cup winner is progressing nicely in Australia. He’ll be fifth up on Saturday and has won at 2400m in the past. He’s hard to line up but must rate a big chance on 53kg.

12. Antonia Giuseppe: He’s won four in a row, including a 2.8L canning of a BM78 field at Rosehill last start. Whilst he has been impressive defeating much weaker fields, he’s been doing it over much shorter distances and is yet to face a true staying test. For those reason’s I’ll be against him on Saturday.

 

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Antonio Giuseppe – to win 10 units at $6 or less

 

 

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

I am text block. Click edit button to change this text. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Ut elit tellus, luctus nec ullamcorper mattis, pulvinar dapibus leo.

Related Articles