The Betfair Insider: Randwick, Saturday 17th September 2016

Posted: September 15, 2016

Current Track Rating: Soft 5

Rail: True

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 16th – Max 21°C. 50% chance of rain (0-3mm)

Saturday 17th – Max 22°C. 5% chance of rain (0-1mm)

 

R6 George Main (Colgate Optic White) Stakes 1600m Group 1 WFA 3YO +

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 4 of the past 5 winners have been SP favs
  • 1 of the past 5 winners were Mares
  • 4 of the past 5 winners finished 1st or 2nd at their latest start
  • 4 of the past 5 winners have drawn barrier 6 or less
  • The past 2 winners have come via the Chelmsford Stakes

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Rail True, Soft 7

1st – Kermadec – SP $2.35 fav 58.5kg BR 4 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 2nd Chelmsford Stakes G2 1600m Randwick

Rail +8m, Good 4

1st – Sacred Falls – SP $4.00 fav 59kg BR 1 –  3rd up, 2 weeks 4th Chelmsford G2 1600m Randwick

Rail True, Good 4

1st – Streama – SP $8.50 57kg BR 6 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 2nd Warwick Stakes G2 1400m Warwick Farm

Rail True, Good 4

1st – Shoot Out – SP $4.00 fav 59kg BR 4 – 1st up (3 x T), 17 weeks 2nd Doncaster G1 1600m Randwick

Sincero – SP $2.15 fav 58.5kg BR 8 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st Tramway G3 1400m Warwick Farm

Major Players 

1. Tosen Stardom: With even luck would have won the Feehan Stakes first up at Moonee Valley 2 weeks ago. He’s ran two fantastic races in Sydney including a 1.3L second to Contributer in the Gr 1 Ranvet and a luckless 5.5L fifth to Criterion in the Queen Elizabeth. Great form for this and would be favourite in most prior editions of the George Main.

2. Hauraki: A brilliant first up winner in the Tramway. He won posting scintillating sectionals and the firmer track should suit him down to the ground. I have a question mark on whether he can repeat that run second up but appears to be back in fine form.

6. Le Romain: He’s put together two solid runs now and will enjoy the rise to 1600m. He appears to lack that killer sectional to hold off Winx but has fitness on his side.

8. Winx: Australia’s star mare was gift wrapped the Warwick Stakes with the field going out near 32 lengths below the expected average allowing the mare to come home in 32.68 seconds. Her best sees her a comfortable 3 or 4 lengths ahead of this field and she is well and truly found by the market.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (PLACE) Tosen Stardom – 5 units

R5 Hill Stakes 2000m Group 2 WFA 3YO +

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 4 of past 5 winners have come via the Chelmsford Stakes
  • 4 of past 5 winners have been 3rdup
  • 3 of past 5 winners have drawn barrier 5 or less
  • 3 of past 5 winners have been SP Favs

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Rail True, Soft 7

1st – Preferment – SP $21 58kg BR 11 –  2nd up, 2 weeks, 12th Chelmsford Stakes G2 1600m

Rail +8m, Good 4

1st – Junoob – SP $4.00 59kg BR 3 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 6th Chelmsford G2 1600m Randwick

Rail True, Good 4

1st – Moriarty – SP $2.80 fav 59kg BR 4 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 4th Chelmsford G2 1600m Randwick

Rail True, Good 4

1st – Lamasery – SP $3.50 fav 59kg BR 1 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 3rd Chelmsford G2 1600m Warwick Farm

Trusting – SP $2.10 fav 59kg BR 9 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st Chelmsford G2 1600m Warwick Farm

Major Players 

1. Hartnell: An emphatic winner of the Chelmsford Stakes by 7.8 lengths. He was eased down on the line and was completely embarrassed his rivals, who, to be fair were mostly stayers looking for further ground. That is the only doubt hanging over Hartnell on Saturday. Just how flattered was he?

His 2000m form is rock solid with a win in the 2000m Group 3 Sky High and was a strong winner of the 2015 BMW up over the 2400m.

2. Preferment: He was a touch disappointing for mine in the Chelmsford but he has managed to bounce back second up in last year’s version of the race. It’s hard to see him making up the 8 lengths on Hartnell but I wouldn’t say impossible.

6. Magic Hurricane: He’s coming into this race avoiding the typical lead up races but presents perfectly third up with the three weeks between runs. We know he has the class as he previously ran 2nd to Preferment in his race last year. A fantastic E/W bet for mine.

 

Betting Strategy

Hartnell was the dominate winner of the lead up race but was well and truly flattered by the win given the heavy rated surface. He rates on top but looks under the odds. The value lies with Magic Hurricane E/W who has had a perfect preparation for this.

Back on Betfair BACK (E/W) Magic Hurricane – 4 units at $9 or more

R7 The Shorts 1100m Group 2 SWP 3YO +

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 3 of past 5 winners have been 1st up
  • 4 of past 5 winners have carried 56.5 kg or less
  • 4 of past 5 winners have started $6 or less
  • 3 of past 5 winners had their last start in a G1
  • 0 of past 5 winners have been a mare

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Rail True, Soft 7

1st – Rebel Dane – SP $7 58kg BR 2 – 1st up, 19 weeks + 1 trial, 11th All Aged Stakes 1400m Gr 1 Rosehill

Rail +8m, Good 4

1st – Terravista – SP $2.30 56.5kg BR 4 – 2nd up, 4 weeks +1 trial, 1st Show County Quality Gr3 1200m Randwick

Rail True, Good 4

1st – Sessions – SP $3.30 55kg BR 3 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 2nd Concorde Stakes Gr 3 1000m Randwick

Pampelonne – SP $5.50 56.5kg BR 14 – 1st up, 17 weeks, 6th Gr 1 Doomben 10,000 1350m Doomben

Love Conquers All – SP $3.70 56kg BR 10 – 1st up, 13 weeks + 1 trial, 15th Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap

Major Players 

1. Japonisme: He went horrible first up in the Concorde Stakes. He was trapped wide but I would have expected better from him with the track racing better than a standard Randwick heavy. Happy to bypass and wait until he turns his form around.

2. Ball of Muscle: Just run down in the shadows of the post in this race last year 2nd up. He presents first up this time and that’s where his ratings seam to peak. He’s trialling very well and appears revved up for this but races best with more give in the surface.

3. Takedown: A promising 4YO Gelding, he resumes at the 1100m where he was narrowly downed by Redzel in the Listed Fireball earlier this year. He is trialling well and will ensure a strong gallop.      

4. English: She’s all class and took home the Challenge and All Aged Stakes last time in. She’ll get back from the barrier and can zoom down the outside with good speed on. A perfect race for her with form around Australia’s elite sprinters. Well weighted and only a bad ride will beat her.

9. Kaepernick: A horse renowned for having a booming finish which is ideal for this year’s Shorts. He steps up in grade and has the awkward inside draw for a backmarker. Needs to be at his absolute best to beat English but he’s the knockout.

10. Clearly Innocent: An extremely exciting galloper but his best form appears over longer. I’d expect a bold showing but hard to see him getting past some of these horses who are out and out sprinters. Is progressive but 1400m looks his best distance at this level.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) English – 10 units at $2.50 or more

 

 

 

 

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

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