A mixed bag of results last week with Exospheric OK against the bias, running into third behind Humidor in the Australian Cup. It was weird seeing Damien Oliver weave between runners rather than swoop down the outside as jockeys used to do at ‘Old Flemington’.
The Newmarket was one of the slowest editions of recent times and the learning is that Regan Bayliss schooled his older peers on Redkirk Warrior. Voodoo Lad and Tivaci have come back enormous, Star Turn is best suited between 1000m-1100m events and Spieth needs ‘clear air’ with fast run races to show his best.
I layed Omei Sword with success, had a narrow miss with Lubiton in the Kembla Classic and Sofia Rosa was scratched but lines up this week on a heavy Rosehill track which is where we’ll begin this weeks’ preview.
Rosehill Race 7 | Golden Slipper | 1200m | 4:10pm
I am confident betting in the Golden Slipper on the heavy surface as it rules out some key chances that are hard in the market. On breeding and current market price there’s no possible way I could be with Pariah or Catchy with very few of their breeds (Redoute’s Choice & Fastnet Rock) capable on bottomless ground. Shattering for connections or early backers as both look suited on race shape and recent form.
Punting Form feature reports show the Todman Stakes as the perfect lead up race with Vancouver and Capitalist both coming through the race to win the last two Slippers. Punting Form lean towards Menari who knocked up badly compared to Invader who lapped up the heavy going. Both are $26 and despite my preference for Invader on a heavy track, I could not talk you out of backing both colts.
The lay bets according to Punting Form are Houtzen, Pariah and Catchy. I can’t and won’t be laying Houtzen. Vince Accardi has her on top in his Race Speed Profiles by a clear margin to She Will Reign. Her racing pattern and lead up run with 63kg is enough to suggest she’s the best chance of those hard in the market. By race seven, I have no issue with barrier 16.
Daniel O’Sullivan rates Catchy on top at $4.20, which suggests she will stay hard in the market. His full preview can be viewed here.
BACK (WIN) Houtzen
LAY (WIN) Catchy
LAY (WIN) Pariah
Rosehill Race 4 | Ranvet Stakes | 2000m | 2:05pm
Hartnell needs a giant form reversal to win the Ranvet Stakes. Dave Dwyer from the Bookies’ Bag layed Omei Sword last week and is shooting for eight straight lays on the tip sheet. Kevin Saber is leading him, just in front from an ROI perspective.
Dave Dwyer says ‘He is the best horse but at $1.90-$2.00 I am happy to lay, as he only beat two home last start’.
Here, Here Dave! The best value in the race appears to be Our Ivanhowe, He’s Our Rokkii and Sofia Rosa in a race with a few horses that look out of form or suspect on the heavy.
LAY (WIN) Hartnell up to $3.00
Rosehill Race 5 | George Ryder | 1500m | 2:45pm
If there was ever a day to lay Winx, I’m saying Saturday’s George Ryder would be it. Drops back in trip (despite a suitable three-week break between runs) and meets the in-form Chautauqua and Le Romain who are in close range of their career best form. Both gallopers love the heavy track, which can’t be said for Winx (even Chris Waller has threatened to lay her on heavy’s). At $1.23 on the Exchange I’m prepared to lay her.
The one to watch is McCreery. He will be the red flashing light run with the Doncaster being his Grand Final back at Randwick in a fortnight.
LAY (WIN) Winx up to $1.33
Rosehill Race 6 | Rosehill Guineas | 2000m | 3:25pm
The Rosehill Guineas is another tough contest to dissect with four very strong candidates in Prized Icon, Gingernuts, Inference and Impavido. They all look capable on the wet ground at 2000m. Kiwis have a terrific record in the race and being rock hard fit is another plus for Gingernuts.
Prized Icon is the real deal; his second in the Australian Guineas at Flemington against the race profile was brilliant. Vince Accardi has little between the top chances, with Prized Icon and Seaburge holding the smallest ratings edge.
With improvement expected from most, the safest option from a value perspective is to lay the favourite from an inside draw with a very negative map position. I can’t have him anywhere near $3.50 in such a tight contest.
LAY (WIN) Inference
Rosehill Race 8 | Nathan’s Famous Hotdogs Galaxy | 1100m | 4:50pm
The Galaxy looks an even contest on paper. There are plenty of runners that look suited to the heavy track and the Punting Form Feature Race Reports points towards runners with 55.5kg or less, which makes life hard for Music Magnate and Fell Swoop (both $8.00+). Punting Form lean towards Glenall, Redzel and Russian Revolution with all possessing the ability to sit first half off a strong tempo and accelerate.
They oppose English from a negative map and being on the weight limit of the profile at 55.5kg. I’m reluctant to put a line through her name after a stunning first up win. Vince Accardi’s RSPs indicate she’s right in the mix and who can forget her win in the All Aged on the slop last autumn. She looks close to her PB ratings so I won’t be laying her.
Heatherly is a class mare and has a career PB rating over 1100m, despite that performance being at Caulfield on a Good 3. She has a great platform coming off two strong performances (not gut busters) at Flemington over 1000m. Dropping 5kg to Handicap conditions looks the perfect recipe for her to spike and from barrier 13 she will map closely to the main chances.
BACK (WIN) Heatherly
Flemington Race 5 | Blamey Stakes | 1600m | 3:05pm
The Blamey Stakes looks thin with Black Heart Bart scratched. Daniel O’Sullivan has rated Tosen Stardom clear on top, Darren Weir suggested there was plenty of room for improvement going into the Futurity stakes second placing, where he was nothing short of brilliant. If he replicates that performance out to a more suitable 1600m, it is game over. The team from Punting Form have a ‘High’ confidence level with Tosen Stardom and suggest a strong bet.
BACK (WIN) Tosen Stardom
Moonee Valley Race 7 | Alister Clark Stakes | 2040m | 9:30pm (FRI)
Moonee Valley is on the quick back up from Monday with the rail back to true, meaning on-pace is less advantaged. The Alister Clark typically favours horses coming through the Australian Guineas or Autumn Classic lead up runs.
Farson has come up $2.30 favourite from a positive draw. He holds the strongest rating coming into the race, his asset being early speed, so the valley should be too his liking. Mark Zahra has a strong record in small fields and from barrier two; he’ll be stalking on Ruthven who can measure up at this level. Hardham returns from Sydney and Miss Strathallan has upside.
The Racing Model has Farson on top from Ruthven, Sunday Pray, Hardham and Parthesia. The Analysts rate Farson $2.00 from Ruthven $5.50.
Newcastle Race 8 | Newcastle Newmarket | 1400m | 5:35pm (FRI)
Friday’s Newcastle Newmarket looks a great betting race with the race profile favouring horses down in the weights. The Racing Model has ranked Happy Clapper on top from Chetwood, Snippets Land, Sons Of John and Vanbrugh.
Punting Form favour Too Good To Refuse and Snippets Land. Both possess a sharp 400m sprint and can finish over the top of Chetwood, who struggles to finish off his races so will need to pinch a big break with 200m to travel.
I loved the first up effort of Happy Clapper with 60.5kg first up at Canberra. He can map closer in running and with his class, improved race fitness he can lump 59kg to win.
BACK (WIN) Happy Clapper