The Betfair Insider: Moonee Valley, Saturday 3rd September 2016 – McEwen Stakes + Dato’ Tan Chin Nam Stakes

Posted: September 2, 2016

Current Track Rating: Good

Rail: +3m

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 2nd – Max 15°C. 40% chance of rain (0-1mm)

Saturday 3rd – Max 15°C. 50% chance of rain (0-0.4mm)

 

R5 McEwen Stakes 1000m Group 2 WFA

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 3 of the past 5 winners have been 1st up
  • 3 of the past 5 have been $8.50 or greater
  • The class sprinter resuming has a great record in this race

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Chautauqua – BR 10 58.5KG SP $2.60 – 1st up, 20 weeks, 3rd All Aged Stakes Group 1 1400m Randwick

Angelic Light – BR 1 56.5KG SP $21 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 3rd Carlyon Stakes LR 1000m Moonee Valley

Kuroshio – BR 9 52KG SP $16 – 2nd up, 3 weeks + 1 trial, 7th San Domenico Group 3 1100m Rosehill

Bel Sprinter – BR 5 58.5KG SP $2.90 – 1st up, 16 weeks + 1 trial, 9th Galaxy Group 1 1100m Randwick 

Buffering – BR 8 58.5KG SP $8.50 – 1st up, 11 weeks, 4th W J Healy Group 3 1200m Eagle Farm

Major Players 

2. Furnaces: He’s back again after running third in this race last year. There’s two big differences this time around:

  1. No Chautauqua
  2. Up +6.5kg

Obviously he’ll find this race easier but he did lack the class of Chautauqua.

3. Reldas: He Loves the course and distance and although ‘up in class’ he actually finds a winnable race. He’s the knockout.

4. O’Malley: Heatherly got away with a comfortable lead in the Carlyon and O’Malley was good running into third. Unfortunately for him I don’t see the race unfolding any differently although some runners may race to beat Heatherly specifically which might play into his hands.

5. Sheidel: A quality race mare with 12 wins from just the 20 starts. She ran a narrow second in the Group 1 Sangster to Precious Gem. She’s beaten Under The Louvre and that win alone puts her in the mix.

8. Heatherly: Had it all her way last time and didn’t run any time which was slightly disappointing. On paper she will get things her way again but I think a few connections may see her being vulnerable so don’t be surprised if one or two runners attack her. The most impressive part of her win last start was her ability to relax and stack the field up rather than pull or get fizzed up.

10. Chloe In Paris: She’s first up off a lengthy spell but she did have a trial back in August last year so its not as long as it looks on paper. She was very good when second to Sistine Demon at the Cranbourne trials and Oliver has taken the ride for a gun stable. At $14 I want to be on.

Betting Strategy

A very open race with a few surprises expected from the map. For that reason, I’m happy to lay Heatherly at the short quote after running just average figures last time.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) O’Malley – to win 1 unit at $10 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Sheidel – 2 units at $5.5 or more.

R8 Dato’ Tan Chin Nam Stakes 1600m Group 2 WFA

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 0 of past 5 winners have been 1st up
  • 3 of past 5 winners 2nd up (2 weeks, 1400m P.B Lawrence or Memsie Stakes)
  • 2 of past 5 winners have been SP favs
  • 4 of past 5 SP favs have finished Top 3

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

The Cleaner – SP $5.50 59kg BR 6 – 2nd up, 3 weeks, 2nd P.B. Lawrence Group 2 1400m Caulfield

The Cleaner – SP $4.40 59kg BR 2 – 5 week freshen, 1st HCP 80k 1600m Moonee Valley

Fiorente – SP $3.20 59kg BR 2 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 6th Memsie Stakes G1 1400m Caulfield

Happy Trails – SP $5.50 59kg BR 10 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 1st Spring Stakes G3 1200m Morphettville

Rekindled Interest – SP $7 58.5kg BR 10 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 4th Memsie Stakes G2 1400m Caulfield

Major Players 

1. Tosen Stardom: Japanese horse that has failed to live up to his overseas reputation. If any stable can get the best out of him, it’s the Weir yard. He’s best suited between 1600-1800m so expect him to be wound up enough to win this despite falling outside the race profile. He may find himself buried in traffic from the inside draw which is a big worry despite a suitable fast tempo set by The Cleaner.

2. The United States: Quality horse resuming who went right through the grades last time in. He won the Ranvet (2000m) and has won here first up before which is a great push. The profile says you don’t want to be first up here so I can’t come into him on Saturday. That said, the stable had a great record producing Fawkner fresh over the mile.

3. The Cleaner: A two-time winner of this race, you would have to assume that he has been set for this race by connections. He went hard first up but he usually does that. He didn’t respond like he has in the past and so I am going to say he will improve off that run. I think he is a run behind where he was over the last few years so he’s a pass for me given the strength of this field.

8. Mahuta: At all three runs this time in Mahuta has slowly been improving on his fitness. He strikes this race fourth up from the Memsie and is ready to produce a peak performance this campaign. Unfortunately for him he has a wide draw and will need to be used up to get across to the rail or one off. For that reason I am happy to bypass him on Saturday.

10. Suavito: The stable said she was a run behind first up and on this occasion the stable information was correct. She was only beaten 2L in the P.B. Lawrence and she gets the blinkers on here suggesting its all or nothing. Has the class and likes this track and trip.

12. Miss Rose De Lago: Winner of the P.B Lawrence, she was outstanding absorbing the pressure of the Lawrence to come away with a half length victory. I can only see her improving here but she needs a lot of luck from the draw.

13. Set Square: Hit the line really hard in the Lawrence and the step up to 1600m with a three-week break looks ideal. She’s all class and it was a great return off a troubled spell. The value runner once again.

14. Jameka: Like Set Square, she was a great return in the P.B Lawrence and ticks a lot of boxes here. She’s won at the track against the boys and can handle wet and dry conditions. She’ll get a nice smother behind them and Craig Williams owes her a god ride.

 

Betting Strategy

A deep race where luck in running will be vital, I’m tipping two mares who will be coming off the pace and unleashing down the outside.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Jameka – 3 units at $7 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Set Square – 2 units at $18 or more

 

 

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

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