The Betfair Insider: Moonee Valley, Saturday 22nd October 2016 – Cox Plate Day Feature Races

Posted: October 21, 2016 at 10:29 am

Current Track Rating: Good 4

Rail: True

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 21st – Max 19, partly cloudy. Very high chance of showers (95%) 8-20mm in the morning/afternoon.

Saturday 22nd – Max 15, partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers (40%) 0-2mm in the morning/afternoon.

 

R1 Inglis Banner 1000m 2YO SW

Speed Map

NB: Impossible to Map with 11 first starters.

Race Profile

  • 1 of past 5 winners SP Favourites
  • 3 of past 5 winners had race experience
  • 4 of past 5 winners drawn inside 5 barriers

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Rail +3m, Good 4

1st – Dalradian – SP $6 57kg BR 5 – 2nd start, 1 week 1st 2YO Maiden 900m Bendigo

Rail +3m, Good 3

1st – Fontiton – SP $3 fav 55kg BR 1 – First start, 1 trial

Rail +3m, Good 3

1st – Silversands – SP $31 55kg BR3 – 2nd start, 3 weeks 3rd 2YO SW 1000m Morphettville Parks

Crack A Roadie – SP $5.50 57kg BR 9 – First start, 2 trails

Diamond Earth – SP $9 55kg BR 5 – Second start, 1.5 weeks 8th Debutants LR 1000m Caulfield

Major Players 

1. Feng Chu: Nice debut in the Debutant Stakes when comfortably held to a 2L margin in fourth. Can only improve.

2. Azazel: Tony Mcevoy has a great record with his 2YO’s in Melbourne on Azazel put in a very nice trial at Cranbourne on the 17th. He’s been supported early and looked to out gallop stablemate Miss Wahoo on Tuesday at Breakfast with the stars.

8 Luiza: A natural early runner, Luiza is already a Metropolitan winner at Randwick when taking out the Kirkham Plate in a time approx. 4L quicker than the benchmark time. Awkwardly drawn in Barrier 11

9. Miss Wahoo: Loved her debut effort in the Inglis Debutant and will position well in running here. Stablemate looked to have her measure on Tuesday at Breakfast with the stars.

13. Pure Emotion: Bombed the start in a trial but picked up well and was relatively untested to the line.

 

Betting Strategy

Hard to bet with confidence (lowering stake), but think the value lies in the Tony McEvoy trained runners.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Azazel – 1 units at $7 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Miss Wahoo – 1 units at $11 or more

R3 William Crocket 1200m LR 3YO Fillies SWP

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 1 of past 5 winners SP Favourites
  • 1 of past 5 winners first (12 weeks or more)
  • 2 of past 2 winners last start in a Group race
  • 2 of past 5 winners last start provincial / country grade

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Rail +3m, Good 4

1st – Lake Geneva – SP $8.50 55kg BR 8 – 5th up, 5 weeks 8th Tea Rose Group 2 1400m Randwick

Rail +3m, Good 3

1st – Tawnteen – SP $2.50 fav 55kg BR 3 – 5th up, 2 weeks 2nd Thoroughbred Club Gr 3 1200m Caulfield

Rail +3m, Good 3

1st – Minaj – SP $6 55kg BR 12 – 2nd up,  2 weeks 1st 3YO BM 0-78 1010m Mornington

Angelic Light – SP $4.20 55kg BR 4 – 3rd up, 1.5 weeks 1st 3YF BM 0-68 1200m Echuca

Kneeling – SP $5 55kg BR 1 – 1st up, 12 weeks 2nd 2YO Handicap 1200m Caulfield

Major Players 

3. Sweet Sherry: Unlucky not to take out the Atlantic Jewel Stakes when held up at vital stages. She’s drawn a terrible barrier and will need to get all the breaks on Saturday. Might need this run and look for her at Flemington.

4. My Country: Strong in the Scarborough Stakes (1.5L sixth to Selenia) and narrowly beaten by Hear The Chant in the Thoroughbred Club Stakes, both at Group 3 level. Racing honestly but fourth up now from an awkward draw. Looks worthy of taking on.

7. Jeanneau: The only horse first up in this field and has been given two strong hit outs at the trials in preparation for this. Was hard in the market in the Inglis Nursery and the win over Highland Beat was strong. Bowman is booked so expect the money to arrive.

9. Brulee: Ridden cold in the Thoroughbred Club Stakes after missing the start, she finished well under double wraps when it became apparent the race was over for her. From a better gate and the blinkers on we’ll see the best of her here. Some chance to be the BSP favourite.

13. Overstep: She ran third in the Reginald Allen at Rosehill 28 days ago when leading. Her form prior on soft tracks has only been fair so a big watch on track conditions.

17. Angharad: Like Brulee, Angharad went to the line untested in the Thoroughbred Club Stakes. She was one of only two horses first up in that race and I will say she has a lot of upside coming into Saturdays race.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Brulee – 2.0 units at $7 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Angharad – 1 units at $7 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Jeanneau1 units at $10 or more

R4 Red Anchor Stakes 1200m Group 3 3YO SWP

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 2 of past 5 winners SP favourites
  • 4 of past 5 winners 4th up or deeper into preparation
  • 2 of past 5 winners coming off last start Group races
  • 2 of past 5 winners dropped back in distance from last start

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Rail +3m, Good 4

1st – Holler – SP $3.50 56kg BR 5 – 5th up, 1 week 2nd Gothic Stakes Listed 1400m Caulfield

Rail +3m, Good 3

1st – Galaxy Pegasus – SP $3.90 fav 56kg BR 3 – 4th start, 4 weeks 1st BM64 1107m Kilmore

Rail +3m, Good 3

1st – Thermal Current – SP $7 56kg BR 1 – 5th up, 5 weeks 7th Golden Rose Gr 1 1400m Rosehill

 Star Of Giselle – SP $5.00 54.5kg BR 2 – 4th up, 10 days 1st Ladies Day Vase G3 1400m Caulfield

Ocean Challenger – SP $51 53kg BR 5 – 5th up, 4 weeks 11th Bairnsdale Cup 55k 1600m B’Dale

Major Players 

1. Ken’s Dream: Was the victim of circumstances last start when bumped at the 600m mark by Flying Artie in the Blue Sapphire. He boxed on well for fourth and is a tough on speed runner who’s fifth up. He probably has not much improvement or map favours, but he comes through the right form races to be competitive here.

2. Archives: His first go at Moonee Valley after running well up the Flemington straight. This looks a little awkward for him as he’s likely to be posted and may not handle the tight circuit. However, he gets James McDonald for the first time this prep and is back in class.

3. Dalradian – Ran the race of his life in the Blue Sapphire when taking Flying Artie the distance, only being overpowered in the final 50m. He had bias favours last start which appears to be overvalued in early markets.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Ken’s Dream – 6 units at $3 or more

R5 Tesio Stakes G3 4yo + Mares 1600m

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 3 of 5 winners were 5th up in their preparation
  • 4 of 5 winners had their previous run at 1400m
  • 2 of 5 winners came through the Ladies Day Vase
  • 3 of 5 winners had their previous run within 10 days of this race.

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Coronation Shallan – SP $7.50 BR 9 – 3rd up, 1 week 3rd Moonga Stakes G3 1400 Caulfield

Suavito – SP $2.60 54kg BR 4 – 5th up, 10 days 3rd Ladies Day Vase G3 1400m Caulfield

Catkins – SP $9.00 59kg BR 8 – 5th up, 3 weeks 3rd Rose Kingston G2 1400m Flemington

 Star Of Giselle – SP $5.00 54.5kg BR 2 – 4th up, 10 days 1st Ladies Day Vase G3 1400m Caulfield

Ocean Challenger – SP $51 53kg BR 5 – 5th up, 4 weeks 11th Bairnsdale Cup 55k 1600m B’Dale

Major Players 

1. Lady Le Fay: Brings some good Sydney form down after finishing second to Dixie Blossoms in the Group 3 Angst last start. Dixie Blossoms will likely show up over the carnival and win a race and there is no reason why she can’t also. She stays at 1600m here third up. Last preparation her runs over 2000m were her best so perhaps she may peak next start in that distance range. She will be very hard to beat here although the market has found her. We have seen the Sydney form staking up in this type of grade already this Spring.

2. Rocket Commander: Got the perfect run behind the leader Antelucan in the Ladies Day Vase (good profile), took a while to get through to clear running and hit the line well running 12.09 for her last 200m. Whilst she was no match for the winner she went well and I highly respect her trainer Matthew Dale. Looks to be underestimated in the early markets

5. Metaphorical: The market keeps putting this horse in the betting and for the layers she keeps finding ways to get beaten. Her last win was 12 starts ago and I can’t see anything on her most recent run in the Blazer to suggest she can meet or outperform market expectations.

7. Antelucan: Returned to her best in the Ladies Day Vase and looks to get a very comfortable lead. Her first three runs back this preparation were below her best but she has shown that once she reaches a peak she can sustain it with back to back wins in the Autumn. Represents very good value here assuming leading is OK.

9. Alaskan Rose: She has the ability to reel off good sectionals as displayed her last 2 starts when her last 600m (35.28) were second only to the winner Euro Angel on the back of her win (35.03). She does seem to pick and choose when she wants to run well and buried back on the fence does her no favours. Looks another to oppose. Worked impressively at breakfast with the stars Tuesday and can win if the breaks come for her.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Lady Le Fay for 6 units at $2.50 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Antelucan for 4 units at $8.0 or more

R6 Fillies Classic 1600m Group 2 3YO Fillies

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 3 of past 5 winners SP Favourites
  • 4 of past 5 winners were 4th up
  • 3 of past 5 winners last start in a Group race
  • 2 of past 5 winners last started in the 1000 Guineas

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Rail +3m, Good 4

1st – My Poppette – SP $2.70 fav 57kg BR 1 – 4th up, 3 weeks 3rd Edward Manifold Stakes Gr 2 1600m Flemington

Rail +3m, Good 3

1st – Lumosty – SP $1.70 fav 57kg BR 2 – 4th up, 2 weeks 8th 1000 Guineas Gr 1 1600m Caulfield

Rail +3m, Good 3

1st – Gypsy Diamond – SP $15 57kg BR 3 – 4th up, 1.5 weeks 6th 1000 Guineas Gr 1 1600m Caulfield

Kazanluk – SP $10 57kg BR 12 – 4th up, 6 weeks 3rd Morphetville Guineas LR 1600m Morphettville

Lights of Heaven – SP $1.65 fav 57kg BR 7 – 3rd start, 4 weeks 1st 0–72 F & M 1400m Sandown Hillside

Major Players 

1. I Am A Star: A terrific Filly who was only beaten a length behind Global Glamour in the Group 1 1000 Guineas. She really attacked the line hard and appears to be in peak form. Deserved favourite and only a wet track will see her drift in betting.

2. La Luna Rossa: Dipped a few times during Thousand Guineas and pulled up poorly. Some rain should assist in a much better showing and she’s drawn to get a good run in transit.

3. Sezanne: Beaten 0.6L by Foxplay in the Gr 2 Tea Rose Stakes before finishing the race of well in the Flight Stakes behind Global Glamour. She’s 21 days between runs and has drawn the outside barrier. Is sure to get right back in the run and will need a lot of luck into a race that looks devoid of speed.

7. Outback Rain: Looks the knockout runner off her last start fifth in the Poseidon stakes behind Inside Agent and Peacock who raced well in the Gothic Stakes last week. The rise to 1600m suits and she only needs to overcome her wide gate to be in the finish.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) I Am A Star – 6 units at $2.30 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Outback Rain – 1 units at $21 or more

R7 Schweppes Crystal Mile G2 WFA 1600m

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 4 of past 5 winners were 4th or 5th up
  • 2 of past 5 winners raced at G1 level in their lead up
  • 3 of past 5 winners had their previous run at 1600m
  • 5 of past 5 winners had an SP of $6.00 or lower

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

1st – Turn me Loose – SP $4.20 58.5kg BR 1 – 4th up, 1 week 1st Seymour Cup Listed 1600m Seymour

2nd – Bow Creek – SP $17 59kg BR 4 – 1st up, 15 weeks 6th Summer Mile G2 1609m Ascot

3rd – Lucky Hussler – SP $2.05 59kg BR 3 – 4th up, 2 weeks 1st Toorak Hcp G1 1600m Caulfield

Rail +3m, Good 3

1st – Hooked – SP $5 58.5kg BR 1 – 5th up, 3 weeks 3rd Epsom G1 1600m Randwick

2nd – Bull Point – SP $8 58.5kg BR 2 – 5th up, 2 weeks 6th Toorak Handicap G1 1600m Caulfield

3rd – Desert Jeuney – SP $26 59kg BR 3 – 4th up, 2 weeks 3rd Toorak Handicap G1 1600m Caulfield

Rail +3, Good 4

1st – Toydini – SP $3.30 fav 58.5kg BR 5 – 4th up, 3 weeks 3rd Epsom G1 1600m Randwick

2nd – Speediness – SP $5 59kg BR 2 – 4th up, 2 weeks 4th Toorak Handicap G1 1600m Caulfield

3rd – Sacred Falls – SP $6 58.5kg BR 3 – 4th up, 8th Epsom Group 1 1600m Randwick

Rail +3m, Good 4

1st – Silent Achiever – SP $6 56.5kg BR 2 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 4th Handicap 1400m Te Rapa NZ

2nd – Rangirangdoo – SP $ 3.10 fav 59kg BR 3 – 4th up, 3 weeks 12th Epsom G1 1600m Randwick

3rd – Solzhenitsyn – SP $ 5.5 58kg BR 1 – 4th up, 2 weeks 1st Toorak Handicap G1 1600m Caulfield

Testa My Patience – SP $6 53.5kg BR 6 – 4th up, 2 weeks 1st Handicap 1400m Caulfield

Major Players 

1. The United States: Held up between the 600m and 400m in the Dato Tan Chin Nam over 1600m which profiles well here. He ran past Jameka recording a last 600m time of 36.16 to her 36.23 and we know what she has done since. I’m concerned at the fact he comes into this race second up off a 7-week let up due to injury. At the price I am keen to lay him with the added bonus of how poorly he maps.

2.Statum Star: Hit the line well last week running slightly quicker sectionals (L600 34.10) than the winner Voodoo Lad (34.13). His last win and career best was on a 7-day back up as he is here. Has been racing in top grade and whilst he hasn’t won for 10 starts he has been competitive at the highest grade. One to keep on our side.

3. He or She: Racing in the best form of his career and has been competitive in his last five starts all at Group 1 level.  His last win was the race prior to that sequence in Group 2 level over 1600m. Despite the profile I’m not concerned with this horse coming back from 200m. Another to keep on our side and looks well placed as a G1 Handicapper or at G2 level here under WFA conditions.

5. Royal Rapture: If you can find a chink to this guy’s armour you are doing well. Lining up for his 14th start this preparation but simply flying having won six of seven starts before his most recent one-length fourth in the Group 1 Toorak Handicap. This is his first go under WFA conditions but how can you knock him. The market has been happy to risk late in the betting at his last few starts so don’t be alarmed if that happens again.

7. Federal: WFA conditions don’t suit him but his last start effort was very good for a stable who is flying. That third placing to Ulmann, whom he meets 3kg better, was his first start in Melbourne and he can improve dramatically on that. His splits of 10.76 (600-400) and 10.77 (400-200) were clearly better than Ulmann and despite the SP profile from the last start where he started $4.40 compared to Ulmann $3.40 the market has quite rightfully made Federal the more likely winner.

8. Ulmann: Had every favour in the run last start in what was still a nice win. As noted I don’t think he can beat Federal home let-alone any of the others. He does boast a second to Winx out to a mile and will get a soft run in transit.

 

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) The United States for 5 units at $5 or less

R8 Antler Luggage Moonee Valley Cup G2 2500m

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 1 of past 5 winners have carried 58kgs to victory
  • 4 of past 5 winners have drawn barrier 5 or closer
  • 4 of past 5 winners raced 2-3 weeks between runs
  • 3 of past 5 winners raced in a country cup at their previous start.

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

1st – The United States – SP $3.60 56kg BR 5 – 5th up, 3 weeks 6th JRA Cup G3 2040m Moonee Valley

2nd – Prince Of Penzance – SP $6.00 57kg BR 4 – 5th up, 2 weeks 8th Herbert Power G2 2400m Caulfield

3rd – Bohemian Lily – SP $8.00 53kg BR 10 – 5th up, 2 weeks 3rd Herbert Power G2 2400m Caulfield

Rail +3m, Good 3

1st – Prince Of Penzance SP $10 56kg BR 9 – 5th up, 1 week 2nd Moe Cup 2050m Moe

2nd – Le Roi SP $8 56kg BR 1 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 3rd Cranbourne Cup Listed 2025m Cranbourne

3rd – Au Revior SP $4.8 56.5 kg BR 6 – 6 week freshen 4th Prix Foy G2 2400m Longchamp FR

Rail +3, Good 4

1st – Precedence – SP $7.50 56kg BR 2 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 2nd Benalla Gold Cup 2046m Benalla

2nd – Shoreham – SP $5 54kg BR 6 – 5th up, 2 weeks 6th Cranbourne Cup Listed 2025m Cranbourne

3rd – Gotta Take Care – SP $7 55kg BR 4 – 16th up, 3 weeks 3rd Bart Cummings Listed 2520m Flem

Rail +3m, Good 4

1st – Vatuvei – SP $ 13 54kg BR 1 – 4th up, 2 weeks 8th Cranbourne Cup Listed 2025m Cranbourne

2nd – Reuben Percival – SP $9.50 56kg BR 8 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 9th Herbert Power G2 2400m Caulfield

3rd – Ironstein – SP $5 56.6kg BR 3 – 4th up, 2 weeks 4th Herbert Power G2 2400m Caulfield

Amercain – SP $3.50 fav 58kg BR 3 – Let up, 9 weeks 10th Kergorlay G2 3000m Deauville FR

Major Players 

1. Gallante: Sat second in the run behind Tom Melbourne in the Naturalism and fought everyone off bar the winner Jameka. The first three home that day were the first three in running and his last 600m (36.12) was the ninth fastest of the race despite a reasonably comfortable first 1000m. He will once again have a bunny to chase in Authoritarian and hard to see him not being in the placings despite being second up and off a five-week freshen.

3. Who Shot Thebarman: Just plain in the Metropolitan when he was never likely to win it. Certainly not racing anywhere near his peak Sandown classic win of 2015. His best career ratings come fifth or sixth up (fifth up here) but they have all been off a higher base than his current ratings.

4. Excess Knowledge: Strong effort in the Bart Cummings when third behind Almandin where he stayed on well but the trainer has just four wins from her last 45 starters in Melbourne Metro area. Should be nearing his peak but I have to oppose at the price.

5. Authoritarian: The Set-Weights and Penalty conditions of this race doesn’t look ideal as he should be getting more weight off most of his rivals. He’s conceding 1kg to other higher rated runners. I’ve included him as a major player as he will have a direct impact on the race via his racing style and he comes into this off the back of the Moe Cup. He led by 5L last time and ran his rivals ragged to win comfortably. I suspect similar tactics here which will put most of these out of their comfort zone.

9. Second Wave: The big query runner from the Charlie Appleby yard. He ran a placing two starts back at listed level behind Sir Isaac Newton, and a good fourth in the Exchange Stakes most recently (in July). His stablemates ran first and third in the Geelong Cup this week with their OHC ratings of Qewy (93) and Oceanographer (88). I’m happy to be with him down in the weights taking into account the race profile and his European form tells me he can rate much higher.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Gallante for 2 units at $3.5 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Second Wave for 8 units at $4.0 or more

R10 Lucrf Super Vase G3 3yo 2040m

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 4 of past 5 winners have been colts or geldings (Jameka 2015 the last female)
  • 2 of past 5 winners have come through Caulfield Guineas
  • 3 of past 5 winners have drawn barrier 5 or closer
  • 5 of past 5 winners have been 4th up or deeper into their prep
  • 3 of past 5 winners have been SP Favourites

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Rail +3m, Good 3

1st – Jameka SP $4.40 fav 55kg BR 5 – 4th up, 2 weeks 2nd 1000 Guineas Gr 1 1600m Caulfield

2nd – Shards SP $10 57kg BR 3 – 5th up, 2 weeks 13th Caulfield Guineas Gr 1 1600m Caulfield

3rd – Tarzino SP $4.60 57kg BR 9 – 4th up, 2 weeks 7th Caulfield Guineas Gr 1 1600m Caulfield

Rail +3m, Good 3

1st – Moonovermanhattan SP $6 57kg BR 11 – 5th up, 2 weeks 7th Caulfield Guineas G1 1600m Caulfield

2nd – Atmosphere SP $4.8 57kg BR 3 – 4th up, 3 weeks 2nd UCI Stakes Listed 1800m Flemington

3rd – Go Indy Go SP $ 6.5 55kg BR 8 – 4th up, 2 weeks 7th Thousand Guineas G1 Caulfield

Rail +3, Good 4

1st – Savvy Nature – SP $1.80 fav 57kg BR 8 – 5th up 2 weeks 3rd Champions Stakes Group 1 2000m Randwick

2nd – All Rigged Up – SP $201 57kg BR 4– 3rd up 1 week 2nd 2nd 0 – 58 Handicap 1860m Avoca

3rd – Pinstripe Lane – SP $17 57kg BR 6 – 2nd up 2 weeks 4th Super Impose Listed 1800 m Flemington

Super Cool – SP $9 57kg BR 4 – 4th up, 10 days 2nd 3YO 0-82 80k 1600m Caulfield

Manawanui – SP $ 1.22 fav 57kg BR 4 – 5th up, 2 weeks 2nd Caulfield Guineas G1 1600m Caulfield

Major Players 

1. Prized Icon: Honest Colt that’s been right in the finish at his last two outings. He maps perfectly for this after drawing Barrier 4. Looks to lack the killer punch at the top level so prepared to look beyond him at the price.

2. Sacred Elixir: Comes here against the profile third up which hasn’t been a winning formula for the past five years. That said, he’s acquitted himself very well at his first two runs this time in giving away a fitness edge to his rivals. I expect him to be right in the finish here but think he’ll be even better suited in the VRC Derby at Flemington.

3. Veladero: May have found the front to early last start but boxed on very gamely. He’s drawn wide here and will need to work early to get across.  Is rock hard fit and no doubt Hugh Bowman will be trying to pinch an early break. Rain affected ground another positive.

6. So Si Bon: Looks ideally placed here and will be hard to beat if Michael Dee can ride him positively from his inside draw. Hard to miss him last time in the Caulfield Guineas flashing home for fifth in between runners.

10. Whispering Brook: Had a good run in transit but couldn’t match motors with Global Glamour in the final stages on the Thousand Guineas.  She’s the natural leader here and has the services of an in form Nick Hall. I’m inclined to think her optimal distances is 1400-1600m and if she was looking for further she was entitled to win last time in.

11. Harlow Gold: Looks a tricky ride for Regan Bayliss as he’s every possible chance to be posted three wide from barrier 10 with some very experienced jockey’s drawn inside him that will also be looking to slot in midfield with cover. The rise in distance looks ideal for this filly and I suspect him to go back and be the eye catching run looking forward to the Crown Oaks.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Sacred Elixir – 3 units at $6 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) So Si Bon – 2 units at $6 or more

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

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