The Betfair Insider: Moonee Valley, Saturday 20th August 2016

Posted: August 19, 2016

Current Track Rating: Soft 5

Rail: True

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 19th – Max 16°C, 90% chance of rain 4-15mm.

Saturday 20th –Max 14°C: 70% chance of rain 1-5mm.

 

R5 McKenzie Stakes SWP 3YO C & G 1200m

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 1 of the past 5 winners have been first up
  • 5 of the past 5 winners have been 3 weeks or more between runs
  • 4 of the past 5 winners have an SP of $6.50 or less
  • 3 of the past 5 winners raced at Moonee Valley last start

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Good

Well Sprung – BR 4 55kg SP $3 – 6th up, 6 weeks, 2nd Listed Mile 1600m Flemington

Good

Rich Enuff – BR 2 55kg SP $16 – 1st up, 21 weeks, 3rd 2YO Handicap 1000m Moonee Valley

Good

Cauthen – BR 3 55KG SP $2.60 – 3rd up, 3 weeks, 2nd 3YO C&G BM 78 1000m Moonee Valley

Good

Rusambo – BR 9 55KG SP $6 – 3rd up, 3 weeks, 1st 3YO C&G BM 72 1200m Moonee Valley

Good

Amah Rock – BR 1 55KG SP $6.50 – 2nd up, 3 weeks, 1st SW MDN 1209m Echuca

Major Players 

1. Throssell: Is unbeaten in two starts but hasn’t broke the clock in doing so. He’s since come back to the trials and put in an impressive performance. Now first up in his second preparation we get to see what he’s really made off. Maps well but I’d let the betting tell the story in this company.

3. Dam Ready: Well beaten on debut behind star colt Extreme Choice but then went on to win at this track over 1000m at his second start. Hard to know how much he’s improved but it’s easy to believe the gelding is a plus. Looks short in early betting given he’ll be back and wide.

7. Verstappen: He put a gap of four lengths in what looks a fairly ordinary field on the Pakenham surface on debut. Having said that he ran good figures when compared to other races on the day and beat the horse who sat outside him by over 10 lengths. His gallop at The Valley during the week was close to the best work of the morning for mine. Will look the winner but it’s hard backing horses off synthetic track wins into this grade.

8. Ken’s Dream: A nine length debut winner from the Weir yard and that performance suggests he’ll measure up in stakes company. Like Verstappen, he also ran good figures on the day. What he does have in his favour on Saturday is a box ticked for wet tracks and the grass surface, something Verstappen cannot boast. He might end up back and wide from barrier seven but he’s the horse to be with on a heavy surface.

9. Wimborne: A failure on debut at Flemington after being specked at odds in the Maribyrnong Trial Stakes now resumes for Robbie Laing. His latest trial was really nice and looked to have the measure of Throssell. He’s bred to handle a wet surface and with three trials here’s here to win. 50/1 in early markets looks a mile over the odds and I’d encourage you to watch his most recent trial.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Wimborne – 1 unit at $21 or more.

Back on Betfair BACK (PLACE) Wimborne – 2 units at $5 or more.

R8 Carlyon Stakes 1000m SW + Penalties 4YO & UP Listed

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 1 of the past 5 winners have been 1st up
  • 4 of the past 5 winners have an SP of $8 or greater
  • 2 of the past 5 winners have come via the Aurie’s Star
  • 2 of the past 5 winners have raced at Moonee Valley at their previous start

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Good

Le Bonsir – BR 9 57kg SP $8 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 3rd Aurie’s Star Group 3 1200m Flemington

Good

Iconic – BR 2 556g SP $10 – 1st up, 22 weeks, 5th 3Y SWP 1200m Moonee Valley

Good

Broken – BR 4 58KG SP $13 – 7th up, 2 weeks, 1st Aurie’s Star Group 3 1200m Flemington

Soft

Broken – BR 5 56KG SP $14 – 6th up, 3 weeks, 3rd Handicap 1000m Moonee Valley

Good

Kulgrinda – BR 1 54KG SP $1.70 – 2nd up, 3 weeks, 1st Lightning Stakes 1050m Morphettville

Major Players 

1. Shiraz: Is first up from a 40 week spell but all reports are that he has settled in well at the Melbourne stable. He’s drawn to get a soft run in transit and has a fantastic record fresh record (six starts, four wins). Unlucky not to have won the Group 1 Galaxy last time and that holds him in good stead for a race like this if Luke Currie can get a split at the right time.

3. Keen Array: Gets the right race shape for here and Craig Williams rides The Valley as good as anyone. He brings recent G1 form to the table here and has more upside then most of these. If he can get a smother early he can slingshot off the turn and be the last man standing.

4. Iconic: Won this race back in 2014 and was the first horse in the past five years to win it first up. He’s trialled really well this time in for Mark Riley. Watch betting.

5. Heatherly: Is first up from a 25 week break and did take a bit of racing to find her best last time in. She rates as the one to beat with a scintillating five length win in the Group 2 Rubiton Stakes when carrying just the 51kg. She has to prove she has come back bigger and better than ever on Saturday and I’d rather be on her second up with the freshness out of her as she can get fizzed up.

11. O’Malley: Has had just the one start at Moonee Valley and took out a BM78 sweeping past seven subsequent city winners including Trevinder (second Monash Stakes). Obviously an injury plagued galloper with approximately 18 months between runs. Trialled well enough on a heavy 10 this time in and stable is flying. His numbers suggest that he’s more than capable at Group 2 level and $17 early won’t last.

13. Atmospherical: She prefers it dry and unfortunately conditions look to go against her on Saturday. I do prefer her back to 1000m but need to let go based on the predicted wet weather. Possible scratching.

14. Viddora: She was fantastic in Adelaide first up when getting the win over subsequent Metropolitan winner Ocean Embers. The time and strength of that race should hold up here and at $9 she looks overpriced.

 

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Heatherly – to win 10 units at $4 or less

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Viddora – 2 units at $9 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Keen Array – 2 units at $6 or more

 

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

Related Articles