The Betfair Insider: Moonee Valley, Friday 30th September 2016

Posted: September 29, 2016

Current Track Rating: Good 4

Rail: True

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Thursday 29th – Max 15. Rain 6-15mm.

Friday 30th – Max 15. Showers increasing 2-6mm

 

R5 Stutt Stakes G2 1600m 

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 4 of past 5 winners were favourites & 1 second favourite have won (2015)
  • 3 of past 5 winners were 3rd up
  • 4 of the last 5 winners have raced at 1400m at their lead-up run

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Rail +3m, Good 4

1st – Sovereign Nation – SP $4.60 57kg BR 7 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 7th Exford Plate Listed 1400m Flem

2nd – Get The Picture – SP $9.00 57kg BR 9 – 4th up, 2 weeks 1st 3YO Maiden 1600m Ballarat

3rd – Gredington – SP $20 57kg BR 7 – 5th up, (8wk freshen)7th BM70 80k 1400m Flemington  

Rail +3m, Good 4

1st – Almalad – SP $3 fav 57kg BR 6 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 4th Golden Rose G1 1400m Rosehill

2nd – Moonovermanhattan – SP $13 57kg BR 5 – 3rd up, 2 wks 4th Exford Plate 1400m Flemington

3rd – Kumaon – SP $13 57kg BR 8 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 10th Golden Rose G1 1400m Rosehill

Rail +3m, Good 4

1st – Divine Calling – SP $3.20 fav 57kg BR 12 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st 3YO Hcp 1500m Moonee Valley

2nd – Shamus Award – SP $7 57kg BR 4 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 7th Exford Plate 1400m Flemington

3rd – Cluster – SP $6.50 57kg BR 9 – 4th up, 2 weeks 8th Golden Rose G1 1400m Rosehill

Rail +3m, Good 4

1st – Pierro – SP $1.06 fav 57kg BR 3 – 2nd up, 4 weeks 1st Run To Rose G3 1200m Rosehill

2nd – Carringbush Jack – SP $71 57kg BR 7 – 6th up, 2 weeks 2nd 3YO Hcp 80k 1500m Moonee Valley

3rd – Jimando – SP $13 57kg BR 1 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 1st Henry Bucks Listed 1400m Flemington

Chase The Rainbow – SP $2.60 fav 57kg BR 7 – 5th up, 4 wks 2nd Henry Bucks 1400m Flem

Major Players 

1. Detective: Crossed the field from a wide barrier last start to get a perfect run outside the leader on a soft pace (first 800 in 49.9). Fought on bravely and could easily improve again.

2. Tessera: Was on Detectives back the whole way last time out. Looked to be under pressure but came again on the line. Meets Detective 2kg better. Can get the sit and looks suited out to the mile.

3. Hey Doc: Has come back a much improved horse this campaign after being gelded. He will be sitting back off a pretty good pace and look to loop the field as he did last time out. Looked good in a track gallop at the valley on Monday.

5. Manhattan Street: Listed winner from New Zealand having his first start in Australia. Races on the pace which might be against him in this race. Happy to bet against at this point despite most Kiwi horses measuring up this season.

6. Inference: A big step up in grade after from his last start win on the synthetic. Hawkes stable can get horses to take big steps but I’m always weary of impressive performances on the synthetic. Happy to risk.

8. Kaching: Stays at 1600m after closing off nicely behind Harlow Gold last start ridden cold. I’ve positioned back last again but will be interested to hear of any change of tactics. Assuming he goes back I’m happy to oppose.

 

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Manhattan Street for 2 units

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Inference for 4 units

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Kaching for 2.5 units

R7 Moir Stakes G1 WFA 1200m

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 5 of past 5 winners have been 1st or 2nd up
  • 4 of past 5 winners have drawn barrier 8 or closer
  • 0 of past 5 winners have been 3YOs
  • 3 of past 5 editions have been won by Buffering (2nd in 2013)

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Rail True, Good 3

1st – Buffering – SP $7 58.5kg BR 6 – 1st up, 42 weeks 6th HK Sprint G1 1200m Sha Tin

2nd – Ball Of Muscle – SP $9 58.5kg BR 1 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 2nd The Shorts G2 1100m Randwick

3rd – Angelic Light –  SP $14 56.5kg BR 10 – 1st up, 25 weeks 7th William Reid G1 1200m M Valley

Rail +3m, Good 4

1st – Buffering – SP $5.5 58.5kg BR 3 – 1st up, 18 weeks 3rd Doomben 10k G1 1350 Doomben

2nd – Lankan Rupee – SP $1.55 fav 58.5kg BR 2 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 2nd McEwen G2 1000m M Valley

3rd – Rebel Dane – SP $8 58.5kg BR 4 – 2nd up. 7 wk freshen 3rd Missile G2 1200m Randwick

Rail +3m, Good 4

1st – Samaready – SP $7 56.5kg BR 7 – 2nd up, 4 weeks 1st The Heath G3 1100m Caulfield

2nd – Buffering – SP $3.50 fav 58.5kg BR 10 – 1st up (1x Trial), 12 weeks 2nd Stradbroke Hcp 1400m EF

3rd – Le Bonsir – SP $26 58.5kg BR 2 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st Chandler McLeod Listed 1200m M Valley

Rail +3m, Good 4

1st – Buffering – SP $2.00 fav 58.5kg BR 10 – 1st up, 16 weeks 2nd Stradbroke Hcp G1 1400m E Farm

2nd – Ready To Rip – SP $12 58.5kg BR 1 – 4th up, 4 wk freshen 3rd Lawrence G2 1400m Caulfield

3rd – Thankgodyou’rehere – SP $12 58.5kg BR 7 – 1st up (1x T), 13 wks 11th Stradbroke G1 1400m EF

Black Caviar – SP $1.05 fav 56.5kg BR 3 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st Schillaci G2 1000m Caulfield

Major Players 

1. Buffering: Winner of this race in three of the last five years including last year when like this week he is first up from the Hong Kong Sprint. Now a 9-year-old and you have to start asking how long he can keep it up. I’m suggesting he will be below his best this prep and would need his best to win here.

2.Chautauqua: Went to a new level last preparation culminating with a breathtaking win in the Hong Kong Sprint. A stack of pressure up front here leaves the race setup perfectly for his pattern of coming from the rear of the field. Trainer is very bullish and he is easily the best horse in the race.

3. Lucky Hussler: Another suited by the likely hot pace and has a good fresh record when resuming at 1200m but likely to find the 1000m too short so I’m happy to oppose.

7. Heatherly: Slow away last start behind Wild Rain. Ran on well and she won this track and distance first up, however that was in a race where she was able to sit on the pace with no pressure. Not the same here. No doubt she is going well and will start the biggest price of her career so if you like her you are going to get a nice price to find out she is up to this level. I’m neutral on her chances but her barrier manners are starting to become problematic.

9. Extreme Choice: SP favourite of the Golden Slipper when he blew the start and was never likely. Impressive winner of the Blue Diamond prior to that. Well weighted comparatively to everyone except Chautauqua and he is clear second pick for me given his potential rating is likely to be much higher than it sits currently.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Chautauqua 10 units at 2.10+

 

 

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

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