The Betfair Insider: Moonee Valley, Friday 23rd September 2016 – Scarborough Stakes

Posted: September 22, 2016

Current Track Rating: Good 4

Rail: +5m

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Thursday 22nd – Max 15°C – 40% Chance of rain 0-1mm

Friday 23rd – Max 18°C – 5% Chance of rain 0mm

 

R6 Scarborough Stakes G3 1200m

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 5 of the past 5 winners were 2nd or 3rd up
  • 3 of the past 5 winners had were off a 3-week break
  • 4 of the past 5 winners have drawn in the inside half of the field
  • 2 of the past 5 winners have drawn Barrier 1

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Take Pride – SP $9 56kg BR 4 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 3rd CAP D’Antibes Listed 1100m Flemington

Eloping – SP $4.40 56kg BR 5 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 3rd McEwen Stakes G2 1000m M Valley

Thump – SP $6 56kg BR 1 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 3rd Furious Stakes G2 1200m Randwick

Snitzerland – SP $1.40 Fav 56kg BR 1 – 3rd up, 3 wks. 1st Danehill Stks G2 1200m Flemington

Miss Stellabelle – SP $11 56kg BR 9 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st 3Y MDN-SW 15k 1100m Bendigo

Major Players 

2. Prompt Response: Dropped out of group company to easily break her maiden at Beaumont (Newcastle) last time out before spelling. Trialled twice and looks to get a good run. Trainer has recorded just two winners in 45 starts over the last 12 months which is of some concern.

3. Merriest: Worked to outside the lead and kicked strongly to win (defeating the classy Whispering Brook) after being very unlucky two starts ago. Was a peak performance last start which is always hard to repeat and the map looks problematic.

4. My Country: Fought on very well up the straight in the Cap D’Antibes to be beaten 0.4L behind Kentucky Miss who had form around the classy Sydney Colts. She’s likely to prefer the 1200m around a turn, is a winner of a listed race in the Brisbane winter who looks to have improved again this prep. Maps well. The one to beat.

7. Motown Lil: Broke her maiden in good fashion and quick time (Track Record) at Mornington. Official Handicapper rating of 66 suggests she may be below this class. Will be back last and need a bias to suit ‘swoopers’ to win which is very unlikely with the rail +5m at Moonee Valley.

10. Athena Lass: Not sure the intention was not to lead last start but seemed to not quite have the speed of Whispering Brook who crossed her. Failed to sprint off the turn as well as at her only other 2 starts. I think she leads this time but still looks a shade below these.

 

The Betfair Insider Ratings: Race 1 to 8 Moonee Valley, Friday 23rd September

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Prompt Response – 7 units at $5 or less

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) My Country – 2 units at $4.5 or more.

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

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