The Betfair Insider Harness Ratings: Ballarat, Thursday October 6 2016

Race comments, confidence and ratings across the entire card at Ballarat.

Ballarat Markets R1 – 8

R1 Harness Breeders Victoria Pace | 17106:30pm

The quickest away from the gate here is Tonkels Star, who will look to cross. Mary Jill comes out well enough to hold its spot from gate one, however it must be noted that the last time she drew this gate she galloped early on and put herself out of contention. However, her last two runs have been superior to this field, and with the minor risk at the start in mind, she is clearly the one to beat. Tonkels Star is the other good hope, with a minor chance to Shaka Moment who won her first start in 30 attempts last time at Hamilton.

Race Confidence: Medium

Runner Name Rating
1. Mary Jill $1.60
5. Tonkels Star $4.10
2. Shaka Monent $14.00
4. Dream A Minute $36.00
8. Majors Fortune $40.00
7. Audaz Bonita $300.00
3. Beachyouthere $500.00
6. Safari Jules $500.00

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Mary Jill

R2 Graffrey Homes 3YO Pace | 2200m | 7:00pm

Inexperienced runners making up this field make the early lead difficult to determine. Mista Lombo has a nice draw but has shown little gate speed to date. That said, his form has included good efforts behind some top flight horses of his age and this looks his race. Hammerhoff has trialled well on a couple of occasions and has only had two starts, the most recent he battled away fairly when a few metres behind Mista Lombo. The Marg Lee pair of Jilliby Mako and Keayang Da Vinci are the other two possible chances. Both have had the one start and went fairly, after trialling together also. There doesn’t look much between them.

Race Confidence: Medium

Runner Name Rating
2. Mista Lombo $1.50
6. Hammerhoff $8.00
3. Jilliby Mako $9.80
4. Keayang Da Vinci $9.80
1. Golden Bliss $500.00
5. Caledonian Robert $500.00

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Mista Lombo

R3 Peter McErvale Real Estate Trot | 2200| 7:30pm

An interesting battle for the lead with Hakuna Sunset, All The Way Mae, Royal Dream and Speedy Rambo all having the option of attempting to find the inside. The latter may be the eventual leader. Jilliby Outlaw is one of the most talented young trotters in the state, but can be his own worst enemy, and has a tricky draw. Is still the one to beat with any luck in running. Uwouldntbelieveit is first up without a trial but raced extremely well for Michelle Wight last preparation. Has a hope. Racewaycalder is honest and a chance along with Stuey D who galloped early at his first Vic start and ran a huge race.

Race Confidence: Medium

Runner Name Rating
8. Jilliby Outlaw $2.40
10. Uwouldntbeleiveit $7.00
11. Racewaycalder $8.20
9. Stuey D $8.60
12. The Third Son $14.00
4. All The Way Mae $26.00
7. Speedy Rambo $26.00
5. Royal Dream $40.00
2. Hakuna Sunset $50.00
6. Lively Laughter $200.00
1. Katelin Brooke $400.00
3. Ruby Victory $500.00

Betting Strategy 

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) All The Way Mae

R4 National Tiles Pace | 2200m | 8:03pm

Officianado and The Fat Man can both press forward early, over the 2200m there is chance The Fat Man can get the lead. He was horrible in his last run but was second up, after a good fresh run, and can be given another chance at this level. Im Alex is a sit sprinter who due to his racing pattern doesn’t win out of turn, but this is a class drop and with the right drag up is a huge chance. Arber is next best, not the horse he was but is another who gets a drop in class

Race Confidence: High

Runner Name Rating
4. The Fat Man $2.40
7. Im Alex $4.00
8. Arber $6.20
5. Classiemahon $13.00
3. Officianado $16.00
6. Mister Hairly Maclary $50.00
2. Wheatsheaf Avaball $80.00

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Mister Hairy Maclary

R5 Templar Bearing & Castors Pty Ltd Pace | 1710m | 8:31pm

Lots of gate speed here with numbers 4,5,6,7 all having genuine early speed. My thinking is that Swiftly Tothebeach is the likely leader when they settle, and over the sprint trip will be very hard to run down. Craving A Smile looks to be the horse in the race on form last preparation, but is first up, was scratched from a recent engagement, and trials have been inconclusive for return. A big watch but on ability alone must be a top hope. Madeyamoney was a shock winner two starts back, may get shuffled back but a repeat of that would give it a rough hope, as well as Presidential Grin who should get to the pegs early and be an outside chance.

Race Confidence: High

Runner Name Rating
5. Swiftly Tothebeach $2.10
7. Craving A Smile $3.10
1. Madeyamoney $16.00
4. Presidential Grin $18.00
6. Bubbling Gypsy $26.00
2. Itscitement $50.00
8. Jodhis Choice $50.00
3. Lively Operative $200.00

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Itscitement

R6 Haymarket Pace | 2200m | 9:00pm

Sandoval should good gate speed to lead in his first Australian run and battled on well. Was beaten out of sight last time but clearly had an issue, has won a trial since and being a good chance to lead again makes him hard to beat. Sharks Bonus is flying for the new stable, winning his last three of the trot. He has led in two of those and that is highly unlikely here, and is up in grade, so there are reasons to knock him. Has to be respected in current form though. Regal Ambition is honest and should find the perfect run on the pegs being drawn outside a slow beginner.

Race Confidence: Medium

Runner Name Rating
3. Sandoval $2.80
6. Sharks Bonus $3.00
2. Regal Ambition $4.00
1. Rory Mach $18.00
4. Gnotuk $200.00

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Sharks Bonus

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