The Betfair Insider Greyhounds: Sandown Park, Friday 18th November 2016 – Melbourne Cup Final

Posted: November 16, 2016 at 3:23 pm

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Race 8 Melbourne Cup Final – 515m 

Track Record: Unlawful Entry 28.95 (17/3/2016) 

Past Winners

2015 – Dyna Double One

2014 – Dyna Villa

2013 – Black Magic Opal

2012 – Got A Moment

2011 – Dyna Tron

Race Analysis

Fascinating race. This could either be really simple or really complicated. Zambora Brockie could either go straight to the front and win, or there could trouble on the first corner and the race is wide open from there. I will be looking for value.

JESAULENKO has been in career best form of late. He has running strongly in recent runs. I loved the way he held off Blazin Bomber in his heat who is one of the strongest dogs in the country and was on his tail throughout. I believe there is every chance of a shuffle up on the first turn and I am hoping he can sail around any trouble underneath him.

OUTSIDE PASS also may be able to avoid any early trouble as she tends to stay wide early, she has a sense of timing about her and she is a strong runner who is capable of a powerful finish. Of some note is that she has travelled back to Queensland in between this heat and final. If ZAMBORA BROCKIE was able to lead clearly at the first turn it may be a case of times and margins, however there is so much early pace here that something may have to give and I am not willing to take $2-$2.50 about him. I am not game to lay him though.

WORM BURNER surprised many by leading all the way in his heat, but he has a poor record from this draw and I believe he may meet plenty of bother on the first turn and I am keen to take him on. BARTON BALE sizzled early and has huge upside, he ran the fastest first section but the slowest run home time. There is every chance he could spear off on the first turn and cause chaos. He would need to lead clearly to be a chance of winning.

TRIPUM is the blow out chance here, he has done nothing wrong in his two Victorian starts and has huge upside. The squeeze draw is his main issue. ANDO’S MAC was very impressive in his heat where he was posted wide and still won, he is in the category of I couldn’t lay him in case he exploded out of the boxes and he has not lost from the draw. I am just willing to bet around him. MATT MACHINE looks to be making up the numbers here and would need an inside draw to be any chase of winning but he is a dog to keep an eye on over the coming months.

Field & Stats

1. Barton Bale Best 29.45 (16/10/16). Won his heat in 29.72 with a first split of 5.00 (quickest). Only missed a placing once from 11 starts. Least experienced chaser in field. Prolific owner Paul Wheeler’s only runner in field (has won past two Cups)

2. Worm Burner Best 29.30 Ran this time in heat leading all the way with a first split of 5.10. Most prolific winner in field (34 wins).  Group 1 2016 National Sprint Champion. Worst performed box with only one career win from five starts.

3. Zambora Brockie Best 29.06. Ran this time in heat win with a first split of 5.07. Only missed a placing once in six starts this draw. Four wins from seven starts this trip. Group 2 Shootout winner over this trip recently. 10th Group race final.

4. Tripum Best 29.33 (4/11/16).Led all the way in heat in 29.52 with a first split of 5.09. Has a PB 5.01 first split here. Two from two this trip. Two wins from five starts this draw. 2016 Group 2 Lismore Cup winner.

5. Ando’s Mac Best 29.64. Ran this time in heat with a first split of 5.09. Undefeated from this draw (two starts). Great winning strike rate with 15 wins from 28 starts. Group 1 Vic Peters Classic winner at Wentworth Park.

6. Outside Pass Best 29.13. Ran this time in heat with a first split of 5.05. Never worse than second in five starts here. Only one win from five starts this draw. Fifth Group final but is yet to win one (three seconds).

7. Matt Machine Best 29.39. Ran this time in heat with a first split of 5.17. Five of eight career wins have come from Boxes 1-4. Six times in the money from seven starts this trip. Youngest chaser in field.

8. Jesaulenko Best 29.13 (28/1/16). Won heat in 29.31, first split of 5.08. Never missed a placing in seven starts from this draw. Four wins from nine starts this trip (one win and one third this draw/trip). Has only been in one Group final, sixth in Traralgon Cup.

9. Blazin’ Bomber (1st emergency) Best 29.09 (5/5/16). Runner up in heat in time of 29.39. Has a PB first split of 5.13. 12 of 21 career wins from Boxes 1-4.

10. Bruce Tycoon (2nd emergency) Best 29.46 (3/3/16). Has a PB first split of 5.05. Has won from every Box draw. Would be the most experienced chaser in field if he gains a start (79 starts).

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Jesaulenko for 2 units at > $6.50

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Outside Pass for 2 units at > $5.50

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Worm Burner for 1 unit <$9.50

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