The Betfair Insider Greyhounds: Sale, Monday December 26th 2016 – Sale Cup Final

Posted: December 23, 2016

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Sale Cup Final – 650m 

Track Record: Mantra Lad 36.71 (15/12/2009)

Past Winners

2015 – No Donuts

2014 – Star Recall

2013 – Dyna Nalin

2012 – Destini Fireball

2011 – Mystic Apple

Race Analysis

Always one of the most enthralling Group finals and the only Group 1 final over the long distance range on the provincial circuit. DUNDEE OSPREY almost tips himself here, he has been bullet proof of late. I took him on from the inside draw last week but he was far too good. He should push through strongly at the first turn and land in a winning position and storm home to victory.

RING THE BELL began better than expected in his heat and he has been mixing it in top company for a considerable length of time, if he can somehow find the rails early he is right in this. ZIPPING KANE is rarely out of the money and loves this circuit, I just don’t think he can cross cleanly but I am not game to lay him. AEROPLANE TOMMY has a poor draw here and is likely to be pushed wide at the first turn. CHRICHTON BALE surprised me in winning his heat last week but he is a wide runner who looks poorly drawn and I think he will get shuffled back on the first corner.

ASTON HARVEY would need to be at his absolute best here but he should drop to the rail early and if there is any trouble up front on the home turn he could flash home late. BROLLY BALE easily had the fastest first split in his heat but I expect him to find this a lot tougher and I cannot see him winning. DEWANA DIMIE may be in for a shock with the charge to the winning post the first time around and may be crunched from the squeeze draw and he couldn’t win this.

Field & Stats

1. Chrichton Bale: Best 37.68. Ran this time in heat with a first split of 6.26. Oldest chaser in field (4 years old). Has won from every box. Five times in the money from eight starts this draw. 22 career wins (most in field).

2. Dundee Osprey: Best 37.23 Ran this time in heat with a first split of 6.13. Group 1 Top Gun winner at The Meadows. Three wins from five starts this draw. Hasn’t missed a placing in his last 11 starts. Has not missed a place in Victoria since May.

3. Aston Harvey: Best 37.41 (20/3/16). Won his heat in 37.46 with a first split of 6.21. Equal most experienced chaser over this trip (seven starts). Seven of 11 career wins have come from Boxes 1-3.

4. Brolly Bale: No best time. Runner up in heat in a time of 37.49, first split of 6.09 (quickest). Been in the money in his past five starts. Never won from this draw but placed in only starts. Youngest chaser in field.

5. Ring The Bell: Best 37.24. Ran this time in heat last week with first split of 6.24. 21 career wins (most in field). Equal most experienced chaser over this trip. Group 1 and Group 3 winner. Was in this race last year finishing eighth. Seven times in the money from 10 starts this draw.

6. Dewana Dimie: Best 37.90. Ran this time in heat with a first split of 6.25. Least experienced chaser in field (17 starts). Only one start from this draw (unplaced).

7. Zipping Kane: Best 37.28 (15/5/16). Won heat in 37.65 with a first split of 6.31. Three from three this track and trip. Only missed a placing five times in 34 career starts. Been placed in his last 13 starts.

8. Aeroplane Tommy: No Best time. Runner up in heat in 37.49 with a first split of 6.28. Never won from this draw, two unplaced runs. 10 of 11 career wins have come from Boxes 1-5. Ran fifth in Group 1 Hume Cup at The Meadows.

9. Trip To Eden: 1st emergency. No best time. Runner up in heat in time of 37.70. First split of 6.30. 6 of 10 career wins from Boxes 1-4. Placed in 20 of 30 career starts.

10. Alera Bale: Second emergency. Best 37.49. Runner up in heat in 37.70. First split of 6.38. 6 of 9 career wins from Boxes 1-3. Hasn’t finished worse than second in past three starts.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Dundee Osprey > $2.70 for 5 units

 

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Aeroplane Tommy < $8.50 for 2 units

 

 

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