The Betfair Insider Greyhounds: Hobart, Thursday 22nd December 2016 – Hobart Thousand Final

R8 9:52pm Hobart Thousand Final – 461m 

Track Record: Above All 25.52 (18/12/2014)

Past Winners

2015 – Unlawful Entry

2014 – Above All

2013 – Paw Licking

2012 – Blackall’s Boss

2011 – Dyna Tron

Race Analysis

Interesting and tricky race. A battle of the interstate invaders versus the star locals so I will be looking for value. COUNT BAROQUE looks to be in career best form and has a sense of timing about him. He ran the quickest first split in his heat and he should be able to avoid the dogs drawn either side of him early. His experience over this trip may prove crucial.

UNLAWFUL ENTRY won this race last year and his win here last week was his first win since June. However, he does seem to grow a leg over this circuit and looks well drawn to have the last crack at them. EL GRAND AMIGO is the boom local pup who is reliable early and should be right in the thick of it. I just believe he may get swamped late with the high pressure of this event.

AMERICAN MONSTER is the quickest dog in the race on his day, but I have never been able to fully trust him and I can see him finding some early trouble and leaving his run too late. CHIEF JETPILOT is never far away but looks to have a poor draw here, he may get posted wide and may not get a crack at them. CELTIC KID is a seasoned professional over this trip but others have more upside and I can’t see him winning.

ZIPPING BRUISER had plenty of luck in running in his heat and I can’t see him receiving that fortune against these rivals and in a full field. FIFTEEN TWO has been in career best form and his heat win was all heart, this is his toughest test to date and he is up against it here.

Field & Stats

1. El Grand Amigo: Best 25.85 (24/11/16). Ran 26.00 in heat with a first split of 5.01 (second quickest of heats). First time running from Box 1. Youngest chaser in field. Six wins from eight career starts.

2. Unlawful Entry: Best 25.78 (17/12/15). Won heat in 26.01 with a first split of 5.12. Four wins from eight starts this draw. Three from three over this trip. 2015 winner of this event. Sandown Park track record holder.

3. Count Baroque: Best 25.79. (11/8/2016). Won heat in 25.93, first split of 4.98 (quickest). Been in the money in 21 of his past 23 starts. Never won from this draw (two starts).

4. Fifteen Two: Best 26.11 (19/5/16). Won heat in 26.32, ran first split of 5.11. 24 of 34 top-three career finishes. This is his best performed box with three wins from six starts. Has won his past three starts.

5. American Monster: Best 26.00, ran this time in heat last week with first split of 5.08. 21 career wins (most in field). Oldest chaser in field. Four wins from five starts this draw (best performed box).

6. Zipping Bruiser: Best 26.30. Ran this time in heat with a first split of 5.15. Has won his past three starts. In the money five times from six starts this draw. Most recent wins have come from off the early pace.

7. Celtic Kid: Best 26.09 (10/11/16). Won heat in 26.14 with a first split of 5.06. Seven wins over this trip. Two wins from three starts this draw. Most experienced chaser over this trip (29 starts).

8. Chief Jetpilot: Best 25.87 (17/11/16). Won heat in 25.98 with a first split of 5.18. Only one start from this draw for a placing. Six previous wins over this trip. 32 of 36 top three finishes.

9. Katey Roman: First emergency. Best 25.90 (17/3/16). Runner up in heat in time of 26.04. Seven wins from 12 starts this trip. Prefer an inside draw if gains a start. 15 of 22 career wins from Boxes 1-3.

10. Hurunui Hamish: Second emergency. No best winning time. Ran 26.09 when runner up in heat. Four of six career wins have come from Boxes 1-2. In the money in 15 of 23 career starts.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Count Baroque for 2 units > $6.50 

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Unlawful Entry for 2 units at > $3.40

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) El Grand Amigo for 2 units at < $4.00

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