The Betfair Insider Greyhound Group 1 Qualifiers Back and Lay Prospects: Wentworth Park – Paws of Thunder Heats, Saturday 14th January

Posted: January 13, 2017

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Group 1 Qualifiers Back and Lay Prospects

Wentworth Park Saturday 14th January

 

 

Race 3 – Paws of Thunder Heat 1

#5 Nangar Thunder 

Impossible race to begin proceedings. Every chaser could have their chance here if they lobbed in a nice position at the first turn. Hoping the squeeze draw will create some value about this chaser. He is very strong and he has the versatility to keep coming late even if he was to miss the start. He has been in the money in 10 of his 13 starts over this trip and I am hoping he can repeat the dose here.

#8 Steel The Best 

She has a stack of early pace but I have always doubted her ability to run a strong 520m. She will really have to burn a lot of energy to cross this field and if she is able to do so I still expect her to tire late. She also is yet to win in four attempts from this box.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (PLACE) Nangar Thunder for 2 units at > $2.30

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Steel The Best for 2 units at < $6.50

 

 

Race 4 – Paws of Thunder Heat 2

#2 Shima Bar

This chaser has freakish abilities and looks well drawn. He has never missed a placing in three starts from this box. His recent win over 450m at Ballarat was sensational and made some quality chasers look foolish in running a slick 25.14.  He didn’t have much luck at The Meadows last start and I expect him to make amends here.

#7 Brolly Bale 

He drops back in distance here after recent runs over 600m in Victoria. He has the dreaded Box 7 which is the worst box over this trip and I am expecting him to get shuffled back on the first turn. He has yet to win in three starts from this draw.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Shima Bar for 2 units at > $2.90

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Brolly Bale for 2 units at < $6.50

 

 

Race 5 – Paws of Thunder Heat 3

#2 Wicked Warrior 

In what looks a tricky race, this chaser has been in mixing it with strong company for a few months and has been cruelled by poor box draws in his past four starts. He can make amends here by returning to an inside draw and if can hold his line going into the first turn I expect him to give a big sight.

#4 Brad Hill Billy

This veteran chaser is still racing in super form in winning his last two starts at Dubbo and Wentworth Park. He has won $270,000 and is as honest as they come. I expect him to lack early speed and drop straight to the rail. He should be able to click through his gears nicely and storm home along the paint and should go very close.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Wicked Warrior for 1 unit at > $3.70

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Brad Hill Billy for 1 unit at > $4.40

 

 

Race 6 – Paws of Thunder Heat 4

#3 Unlawful Entry

Even though I have had my fingers burnt by this chaser before, it is impossible to not tip him based on his incredible track record run of 30.33 at Ballarat over 545m last week. He looked airborne. He does have previous experience at this track which is very beneficial. I would hope he would be third at the worst on the first turn in order to salute here.

#8 Elleni Banner

She has won her past four starts which would create intrigue on why I am going against her here. However, I am just not certain she can cross cleanly from the wide draw as Rockstar Troy may push her wide early and she may burn too much petrol. She produced a career best 29.93 run at The Meadows last start but this was from a plum draw and a five-dog field. She should represent some nice unders on the exchange.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Unlawful Entry for 2 units at > $2.80

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Elleni Banner for 3 units at < $5.50


 

 

Race 7 –  Paws of Thunder Heat 5

#3 Ritza Rossi 

He can be his own worst enemy with his poor box manners but he has amassed an amazing record over this trip with 15 wins. He has been mixing it in the top grade for considerable time and I am hoping he finds the rails early and finishes like a freight train. He should be great value.

#5 Electromagnetic

He clearly has the most upside of any of the chasers in this race but he has failed to win in his past four starts and has been making some mistakes in the run. I am taking the kennel on trust as they have a great record when they bring their chasers up north and he wouldn’t be here unless he wasn’t going well. I am happy to have a saver on him.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Ritza Rossi for 4 units at > $4.80

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Electromagnetic for 2 units at  < $3.70

 

Race 8 – Paws of Thunder Heat 6

#6 Dyna Boomer 

He was a successful lay for Betfair Insider followers last week. He made a stack of mistakes in the run and was very stubborn for the rails but he still managed to find a placing in what seemed effortless fashion. He should again miss the start and drop to the rail and he looks a fantastic place bet now that he has had a look at the circuit. The fact that this looks an open race works to his advantage also. Watch for him flying home!

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (PLACE) Dyna Boomer for 6 units at < $2.00

 

Race 9 – Paws of Thunder Heat 7

#3 Mister Twister 

e has been costly in his last several starts but he is still only a very young pup who has been mixing it in top company in these races. He has also had poor box draws and this draw should be more to his liking. I am also hoping the big race polish of Jason Mackay will work a treat here.

#5 Reckoning 

This chaser has amazing potential but he can take a step or two at box rise to really get going. Given that he starts from Box 5 here there is a big risk attached to him. Good Odds Bricky and Mister Twister can show good early pace which may deny him the early acceleration that he needs. I am happy to take him on.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Mister Twister for 2 units at < $3.90

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Reckoning for for 2 units at < $5.00

 

Race 10- Paws of Thunder Heat 8

#1 Shima Song 

She was a super run here last week where she was never headed and she looks close to peak fitness now. Inside draws with her are a query but if she can replicate her 5.43 first section from last week that will prove very tough to beat here.

#5 Striker Light 

She ran slick time at The Meadows last start and she will win plenty of races as she has dazzling early speed. However, she has the squeeze draw here and meets two seasoned Group race winners in Shima Song and Aqua Cheetah who are both extremely strong. She is still inexperienced in top class races and this may be a case of too much too soon.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Shima Song for 5 units at > $3.10

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Striker Light for 3 units at < $4.50

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