The Betfair Insider: Gold Coast, Saturday 14th January 2017 – Magic Millions Part 2

Posted: January 13, 2017 at 12:09 pm

Current Track Rating: Good 3

Rail: Out 1m 1000-400m, True remainder.

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 13th – Max 32. Hot, 30% chance of shower.

Saturday 14th – Max 34. Hot, partly cloudy.

 

R6 Magic Millions Cup 1400m

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 2 of past 5 winners were first up
  • 3 of past 5 winners carried 57.5kg or more
  • 4 of past 5 winners drew barrier 7 or closer
  • 3 of past 5 winners had an SP of $10 or less

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Good 4, Rail +0.5m 1000m-400m; True Remainder

1st – Lucky Hussler – SP $4.00 60.5kg BR 7 – 1st up, 9 weeks, 6th G1 Emirates Stks 1600m Flem

2nd – Strawberry Boy – SP $6.00 56.5kg BR 2 – 2nd up, 2 wks 8th Cant. Classic 1200m Cant

3rd – Baligari – SP $17 54kg BR 5 – 4th up, 2 weeks 5th Goldmarket Listed 1300m Gold Coast

Good 4, Rail out 1m from 1400-1000m, out 1.5m from 1000-400m, true remainder

1st – Spurtonic – SP$12 58.5kg BR10 – 1st up, 10 weeks, 5th Open handicap 1500m Rosehill

2nd – Strawberry Boy – SP$4 59kg BR1 – 4th up, 4 weeks, 3rd G2 Villiers Stakes 1600m Rand

3rd – The Bowler – SP$6.50 54kg BR5 – 4th up, 2 weeks, 1st BM78 1400m Flemington

Good 3, Rail out 0.5m from 1000-400m, true remainder

1st – Velrosso – SP$4 55kg BR7 – 2nd up, 3 weeks, 5th Open handicap 1000m Randwick

2nd – Phelan Ready – SP$31 56kg BR8 – 5th up, 3 wks, 10th Lough Neagh Stks 1350m Doom

3rd – Club Command – SP$4.60 57kg BR11 – 1st up, 6 weeks, 1st barrier trial 727m Randwick

Good 3, Rail out 0.5m

1st – Triple Elegance – SP$14 57.5kg BR4 – 5th up, 3 wks, 11th G2 Villiers Stks 1600m W Farm

2nd – Gundy Son – SP$31 54kg BR12 – 5th up, 2 weeks, 6th Listed Goldmarket 1300m Gold Coast

3rd – Stratford – SP$9 54kg BR7 – 3rd up, 3 weeks, 10th Listed Razorsharp 1200m W Farm

Good 3, Rail out 0.5m from 1000m-400m, true remainder

1st – Spirit Of Boom – SP$7 55kg BR7 – 6th up, 2 weeks, 1st Listed Goldmarket 1300m G Coast

2nd – Startsmeup – SP$7 55.5kg BR10 – 3rd up, 3 weeks, 5th Listed Lough Neagh 1350m Doom

3rd – Latin News – SP$9 55.5kg BR3 – 4th up, 5 weeks, 2nd G3 George Moore Stks 1200m Doom

Major Players 

1. Lucky Hussler: Raced a touch below himself throughout spring but finished off his preparation with a win in the Group Three Kevin Heffernan. Has an extra half kilogram and a wider alley than he did in this race last year. Looks a deeper race on paper and I’d need the track favouring ‘swoopers’ heavily to entertain backing him at $4 or less.

2. Most Important: Chasing his fourth straight win and is comfortable in stakes grade. This rise to 1400m should be no hassle at the Gold Coast and he maps to get a good run from an inside gate. Looks short enough in early betting so don’t be put off by a big drift.

6. Strawberry Boy: Solid in this race last year and has had an identical preparation. He meets Lucky Hussler 2kg better this time but has drawn 19 which could tell late. Kerrin McEvoy is riding well so expect the money to come for him.

7. Snippets Land: He’s had two strong lead up runs and looks ready to peak third up at 1400m. Drops to 54.5kg for the first time in long while and if he can get clear running at the top of the straight he’ll be hard to hold out. Blake Shinn rides the Gold Coast very well.

8. Bachman: Comes through the same race as Snippets Land but meets that runner worse at the weights and will be buried well back on the fence. Needs luck but is a knockout.

10. Snoopy: His racing pattern says this track will suit and has proven he can travel well. Should get cover despite a middle/wide draw and will be in the finish.

18. Monsieur Gustave: Progressive gelding that can sit behind the leader Strawberry Boy. Will need to run to a new career PB and not convinced there’s much improvement left in him from last start. Knockout.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Snippets Land for 2 units at $11 or better

R9 Magic Millions Sprint 1100m

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 2 of past 5 winners have been first up
  • 5 of past 5 winners have carried 54.5kg or less
  • 3 of past 5 winners raced in Melbourne or Sydney in lead up
  • 4 of past 5 winner have drawn barrier 7 or closer

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Good 4, Rail +0.5m 1000m-400m; True Remainder

1st – Husson Eagle – SP $9 54kg BR 4 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 3rd BM85 85k 1000m Randwick

2nd – Wild Rain – SP $4.20 54kg BR 1 – 4th up, 5wk (freshen) 1st Doveton Stakes Sandown

3rd – Le Cordon Bleu – SP $9 54kg BR 11 – 4th up, 3 weeks 3rd BM85 85k 1200m Rosehill

Good 3, Rail out 1m from 1400-1000m, out 1.5m from 1000-400m, true remainder

1st – Straturbo – SP$7 54kg BR11 – 3rd up, 3 weeks, 7th BM90 1100m Flemington

2nd – Happy Galaxy – SP$9 56kg BR12 – 2nd up, 2 wks, 9th Canterbury Classic 1200m Cant

3rd – Missy Longstocking – SP$2.80 54kg BR9 – 1st up, 52 wks, 11th M Millions Guin. 1400m G C

Good 3, Rail out 0.5m from 1000-400m, true remainder

1st – Whittington – SP$2.60 54kg BR6 – 1st up, 3 weeks, 1st barrier trial 734m Randwick

2nd – Emmalene – SP$6 54kg BR1 – 1st up, 3 weeks, 4th barrier trial 1050m Toowoomba

3rd – Steel Zip – SP$18 56.5kg BR5 – 5th up, 3 wks, 12th Listed Lough Neagh Stks 1350m Doom

Good 3, Rail out 0.5m

1st – Shamrock Slipper – SP$31 54kg BR3 – 2nd up, 3 weeks, 2nd class four 1000m Eagle Farm

2nd – Bella Rossie – SP$5.50 54kg BR2 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 1st F&M NMW 900m Newcastle

3rd – Rocket To Glory – SP$7 54kg BR6 – 7th up, 2 weeks, 3rd CG&E 1MW 1100m Doomben

Good 3, Rail out 0.5m from 1000m-400m, true remainder

1st – Schiffer – SP$14 54.5kg BR2 – 1st up, 17 weeks, 6th F&M 1MW 1200m Warwick Farm

2nd – Seek And Find – SP$2.90 54.5kg BR3 – 2nd up, 1 week, 2nd handicap 900m Gold Coast

3rd – Nuptse – SP$7 54.5kg BR7 – 7th up, 2 weeks, 1st BM85 handicap 1020m Doomben

Major Players 

2. Dothraki: Has trialled well twice in the lead up with good margins to second and third. His last start sixth behind Illustrious lad at Flemington reads well for this and if he can position with cover off his wide gate he’ll take beating.

4. Target In Sight: Bled in last year’s QTC Cup and never runs a bad race. An inside draw may not be ideal given his racing pattern but at his best he’s a deserved favourite. Can he produce that first up off a long break? At the price I’m willing to risk.

6. Prompt Return: Loved his trial then thought his performance in the Favelon behind Hidden Pearl was a nice ‘top up’ for this race. Jeff Lloyd is in career best form and he’ll sit in the sweet spot with cover. Yet to win at 1200m but this looks his best chance at a very big price.

8. Straturbo: Not convinced he’s a 1200m horse but he’s going well enough to win and will map perfectly. Knockout.

10. Le Cordon Bleu: Bounced back to form last start to win the Canterbury Classic which is a strong form reference for this. Will need clear running in the home straight and can win if the opportunity presents. Raced very well here last time so he’s hard to leave out.

14. Hidden Pearl: Looked set up to win the Favelon and did it professionally. Not convinced she can improve enough to beat these but she is honest.

16. Viddora: Another more suited to 1000m but in career best form that can surprise at odds with a good run in transit.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Dothraki for 2.5 units at $5 or better

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Prompt Return for 1 unit at $17 or better

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

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