The Betfair Insider: Gold Coast, Saturday 14th January 2017 – Magic Millions Part 1

Posted: January 12, 2017

Current Track Rating: Good 3

Rail: Out 1m 1000-400m, True remainder.

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 13th – Max 32. Hot, 30% chance of shower

Saturday 14th – Max 34. Hot, partly cloudy

 

R7 Magic Millions Guineas 1400m

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 4 of past 5 winners have used Vo Rogue Plate or Wyong MM lead up
  • 4 of past 5 winners have been Colts or Geldings
  • 2 of past 5 winners have had an SP less than $5

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Mahuta – SP $4.60 58kg BR15 – 1st up (8 wk let up), 1st G3 Sandown Guineas 1600m Sand

Deiheros – SP$26 57kg BR7 – 4th up, 2 weeks, 10th G3 Vo Rogue Plate 1300m Gold Coast

Sweet Idea – SP$5 56kg BR13 – 2nd up, 3 weeks, 1st Magic Millions 3Y0 1200m Wyong

Saluter – SP$15 57kg BR10 – 5th up, 2 weeks, 4th Group 3 Vo Rogue Plate 1350m Doomben

Punch On – SP$9 56kg BR6 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 1st Group 3 Vo Rogue Plate 1350m Doomben

Major Players 

1. Winning Rupert: Unbeaten in five starts and is the horse on everybody’s lips and rightfully so. He destroyed a similar field last start over 1300m and dropped an elite speed rating for that performance.  He’s Group 1 quality and drawing barrier six only enhances my confident levels about him winning here. $1.50 looks a fair price and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him start shorter.

2. Global Glamour: Raced a little fresh first up but still found the line very strongly despite having traffic issues. Will be forced to go back off a wide alley this time and that is most likely to cost her the race as Winning Rupert will be off and gone. She is a class act and already a dual Group 1 winner so if the favourite is off the boil she’s the logical pick.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Winning Rupert for 10 units at $1.50 or better

R8 Magic Millions Classic 1200m

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 5 of past 5 winners have started in barrier 2 or 3
  • 4 of past 5 winner had an SP or $5 or less
  • 2 of past 5 winners have been fillies
  • 2 of past 5 winners have won on the 1 week back up

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Good 4, Rail +0.5m 1000m-400m; True Remainder

1st – Capitalist – SP $1.40 57kg BR 2 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 1st Wyong MM 1100m Wyong

2nd – Nikitas – SP $11 57kg BR 3 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 3rd G3 BJ McLachlan Stks 1200m G Coast

3rd – Candika – SP$26 BR 1 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 1st 2yo Hcp 65k 1110m Doom

Good 3, Rail out 1m from 1400-1000m, out 1.5m from 1000-400m, true remainder

1st – Le Chef – SP$16 57kg BR3 – 4th up, 1 week, 1st 2Y0 handicap 1200m Gold Coast

2nd – Pepperano – SP$31 55kg BR12 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 4th 2Y0 set weights 1050m Toowoomba

3rd – Single Gaze – SP$8.50 55kg BR6 – 3rd up, 3 weeks, 3rd Magic Millions 2YO 1100m Wyong

Good 3, Rail out 0.5m from 1000-400m, true remainder

1st – Unencumbered – SP$3.20 57kg BR3 – 6th up, 2 wks, 1st G3 BJ McLachlan 1200m Doom

2nd – Oakleigh Girl – SP$7 55kg BR6 – 4th up, 2 weeks, 4th G3 BJ McLachlan Stks 1200m Doom

3rd – Ruby Soho – SP$17 55kg BR2 – 5th up, 2 weeks, 1st 2Y0 maiden 1100m Ipswich

Good 3, Rail out 0.5m

1st – Real Surreal – SP$5 55kg BR2 – 4th up, 1 week, 1st 2YO handicap 1000m Eagle Farm

2nd – Sweet Idea – SP$9 55kg BR10 – 4th up, 2 wks, 2nd G3 BJ McLachlan Stks 1200m Doomben

3rd – Missy Longstocking – SP$4.60 55kg BR3 – 5th up, 2 wks 1st G3 BJ McLachlan 1200m Doom

Good 3, Rail out 0.5m from 1000m-400m, true remainder

1st – Driefontein – SP$3.40 55kg BR2 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 1st G3 BJ McLachlan 1200m Doomben

2nd – No Looking Back – SP$9 55kg BR 3 – 2nd up, 8 weeks, 1st 2Y0 fillies hcp 1000m W Farm

3rd – Alezan Thunder – SP$11 55kg BR7 – 4th up, 2 weeks, 1st 2Y0 fillies SW 900m Sandown

Major Players 

1. Ours To Keep: Safe to say I underestimated this runner last start but it wasn’t a quick tempo and I still have some reservations about that form holding up against the deeper field here. However, he is unbeaten with Damien Browne on from an inside alley up and on the speed so it’s hard to find a big negative so I won’t be laying him here.

2. Goodfella: Had tempo against but still ran home very strongly off a wide gate. Faces a similar task from a wide gate here so how the track plays will be crucial. Brenton Avdulla is a good switch for Jeff Lloyd.

4. Chauffeur: Will appreciate more speed and a rise in distance coming from the same race as favourite From Within. Has the turn of foot to win this but may be giving away too big a start.

8. Madeenaty: Dropped a huge Benchmark rating on debut in the Maribyrnong Trial before failing second up behind Invincible Star in the Ottawa Stakes where she raced on the worst going. She came back into serious calculations for this race following her all the way win in the Wyong Magic Millions lead up. Drawn barrier one for Mark Zahra she can be positive and provided the fence isn’t completely off she’ll be in the finish.

10. Invincible Star: Stable has a good record with 2YOs and usually a strong hand in the race. She couldn’t have been more impressive on debut up the Flemington straight in the Ottawa Stakes and despite a wide gate is a runner that can sit on speed and cause a big upset here.

11. Houtzen: Unbeaten from two starts and hasn’t put a foot wrong in either occasion. Some may query the form but the times stack up. Two of the past five winners of this race have won backing up off a week so the only issue is the widest barrier. Hard to think she starts shorter than $6 so there’s no rush to bet early if you like her.

13. From Within: In typical Chris Waller fashion looks to have had the perfect lead up to this race. Her debut run was impressive leading all the way to win and while the overall time wasn’t overly strong, there was enough in her final 600m to indicate that she has the class to win here. Hugh Bowman replaces Glyn Schofield and her draw looks best of almost all of the serious chances once emergencies are taken out of the race (likely to jump from barrier 4). Chris Waller rarely has a 2yo wound up at this stage so every indication thus far suggests she could be one out of the box.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) From Within for 4 units at $3.00 or better.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Madeenaty for 1 unit at $8.00 or better

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

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