The Betfair Insider: Geelong, Wednesday 19 October 2016 – Geelong Cup

Posted: October 18, 2016

Current Track Rating: Good 3

Rail: True

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Tuesday 18th – Max 16, Showers, becoming windy. 80% chance of rain (0-4mm)

Wednesday 19th – Max 17, Becoming cloudy. 20% chance of rain (0mm)

 

R7 Geelong Cup Handicap G3 2400m

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 1 of past 5 winners have been SP favourites
  • 1 of past 5 winners have been International runners 1st up
  • 4 of past 5 winners have raced at G1 or G2 level at their lead up run
  • 5 of past 5 winners have raced at 2400m or more at their lead up run

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Rail True, Good 3

1st – Almoonqith – SP $10 55.5kg BR 14 – 5th up, 2.5 weeks 7th Metropolitan G1 2400m Randwick

2nd – Dandino – SP $4 57.5kg BR 8 – 5th up, 2.5 wks 4th Turnbull Stakes G1 2000m Flemington

3rd – Manndawi – SP $15 54kg BR 3 – 1st up, 8 wks 7th August Stakes Listed 2335m Windsor

Rail True, Good 4

1st – Caravan Rolls On – SP $8.50 54 kg BR 2 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 5th Harry White Listed 2400m Sandown

2nd – Marksmanship – SP $9.00 54 kg BR 1 – 5th up, 3 wks 2nd Bart Cummings G3 2520m Flemington

3rd – Like A Carousel – SP $9.50 54kg BR 12 – 3rd up, 3 wks 1st Harry White Listed 2400m Sandown

Rail True, Heavy 9

1st – Ibicenco – SP $5.5 56.5kg BR 7 – 4th up, 3 weeks 12th Metropolitan G1 2400m Randwick

2nd – Verdant – SP $8 54.5kg BR 9 – 4th up, 2 weeks 6th Herbert Power G2 2400m Caulfield

3rd – Moudre – SP $6.5 56.5kg BR 1 – 5th up, 2 weeks 8th Herbert Power G2 2400m Caulfield

Gatewood – SP $3.20 fav 55.5kg BR 7 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 7th Herbert Power G2 2400m Caulfield

Dunaden – SP $6.00 58kg BR 8 – 1st up, 8 weeks 9th Kergorlay G2 3000m Deauville France

Major Players 

2. Grey Lion: His only win in the past year was on the Deauville all-weather track but he’s looked pretty plain in four of his past five runs.

4. Kinema: A consistent 6YO gelding, Kinema has joins the Chris Waller yard after 28 starts abroad culminating in five wins and nine placings. He’s shown his best form over the 2400m & 2800m so the Geelong Cup looks right up his ally. His past two wins have been in Ratings races and have been on soft tracks so any sting out will bring him right into contention. Excusing his past two failures (up in class) he comes to Australia in good form winning the two starts prior.

5. Qewy: The Appleby yard present Qewy for his first appearance in Australia. He’s been racing in Hurdle / Steeple races between 3000 – 4000m and whilst his last effort over 2816m was quite good you would expect him to be hitting the line on Wednesday with an eye on the Melbourne Cup.

7. Lucques: A tough on pacer, Lucques was very brave two starts back when holding off Black Tomahawk in an Open Handicap at Flemington. He felt that run next start but I expect him to bounce back here with a strong showing.

8. Black Tomahawk: Was beaten in a photo two starts back by Lucques before battling on bravely when up to Group 3 level. Returns from a 25 day break with the blinkers on for the Weir yard and has to feature.

9. Oceanographer: The second of the Charlie Appleby runners, Oceanographer has a gangly action but has really attacked the line at his past two starts in the UK. He took out a ratings 100 race at Doncaster when coming from last before finding plenty of trouble in the straight when finishing well to the talented Heartbreak City over 2816m (and running past the tiring Kinema). 2400m appears ideal and like most of the UK imports will carry a lot less weight than what they are use to.

 

Betting Strategy

While the profiles tell us that only one international has taken out the Geelong Cup in the past five years, the more interesting stat is that the winning locals generally come out of much stronger races than what they do this year. For that reason I’m predicting an international winner with Oceanographer and Kinema top picks while Grey Lion appears under the odds.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Oceanographer – 3 units at $3 or more.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Kinema – 1.5 units at $5 or more.

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Grey Lion – 5 units at $4 or less.

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

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