The Betfair Insider: Kyneton, Wednesday 2nd November 2016 – Kyneton Cup

Posted: November 1, 2016

Current Track Rating: Good 4

Rail: True

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Tuesday 1st – Max 17° Shower or Two

Wednesday 2nd – Max 19° Cloudy

 

R8 Kyneton Cup 2000m

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 3 of past 5 winners had their lead up race at 1600m
  • 4 of past 5 winners raced within 2 weeks of the Cup
  • 0 of past 5 winner were Mares

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Tristram’s Sun – SP $6.00 55kg BR 9 – 4th up, 2 weeks 5th Sale Cup 1600m Sale

Tristram’s Sun – SP $9.00 54.5kg BR 10 – 13th up, 10 days 4th HCP 100k 1600m Moonee Valley

Constant Force – SP $11 54kg BR 12 – 3rd up, 10 days 8th HCP 100k 1600m Moonee Valley

Streets Away – SP $4.60 58.5kg BR 11 – 7th up, 3 weeks 2nd C’bourne Cup 2000m Cranbourne

Lucky Eighty Eight – SP $4.60 55.5kg BR 8 – 6th up, 2 weeks 7th Coongy G3 2000m Caulfield

Major Players 

1. Taiyoo: Ran on well last start but his old form was 4-5L better than this. His last win was 12 months ago and he’s likely to be posted wide looking at the speed map. Must defy the race profile in recent years are carry 60kg to win.

4. Freshwater Storm: Returned his third highest rating last start and is very much in this for a horse that has won 1 of his last 11 starts. Three starts ago he won the Golden Nugget over 1700m at Caulfield and this field looks slightly weaker in depth. Needs ‘run-on’ conditions to win but looks well placed.

5. Tidy Prophet: Ran home well from back in the field recording fair times last start at The Valley. She was entitled to get home well in comparison to Tears of Joy (also here). She meets Tears of Joy 1kg better off at the weights but now meets her at similar levels of fitness and will be spotting that mare a big start from barrier 11 and settling near to last. 

8. Tears of Joy: Out of the same race as Tidy Prophet but for mine a better effort considering she was third up in her preparation. She has good early speed and will either get the run of the race or lead. Bookmakers posted $13 in early betting and with $9 still available Tuesday I expect her to shorten once again peaking here.

10. Charlevoix: Second up over 2000m is something that I found hard to quantify however Mick Kent is one trainer that can seemingly produce such a winner. His fifth in the SA Derby and win prior suggested he has plenty of scope to improve and despite the abnormal preparation and concussion plates first time he is right in with the main chances.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Freshwater Storm – 2.5 units at $6 or more.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Tears Of Joy – 2.5 units at $7.50 or more.

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