The Betfair Insider Ratings: Flemington, Thursday November 3rd 2016

Posted: November 3, 2016 at 10:19 am

Betfair Insider

Race comments, confidence and ratings across the entire card at Flemington.

Flemington Markets R1 – 9

R1 Red Rock Deli Plate | 1700m | 12:15am

Mount Omei was very good first up at Warwick Farm when a long way back off a very slow pace. She flew home with outstanding splits and looks well suited coming to Flemington with a step up to 1700m. Bowman on and a track that should be assisting those running on appeals.

Race Confidence: Average

Runner Name Rating
5. Mount Omei $4.70
1. Hell Or Highwater $7.00
18. Champagne Ready $7.00
9. Honey Cara $11.00
17. Whirlpool $12.00
4. Sea The Sparkle $14.00
11. Artesian $16.00
3. Daisys Joy $21.00
2. Tavi Bay $26.00
8. Concubine $26.00
7. Ballybrit $34.00
13. Montoyas Secret $51.00
16. Star Patriot $81.00
10. Playful Rosie $101.00
15. Spanner Head $101.00
12. With A Bit Of Dash $201.00

Best Profile

R2 Twitter Trophy BM90 | 1800m | 12:55am

Data Point looks hard to beat in this but not all that keen on barrier 3 for a horse that lacks early speed. On current market prices there looks likely to be better value working around him with some of the other chances.

Race Confidence: Nil

Runner Name Rating
16. Data Point $4.00
2. Pilote Dessai $6.00
3. Cool Chap $6.00
4. Encosta Line $11.00
12. The Chairman $11.00
10. Portion Control $13.00
5. Goathland $34.00
14. Maven Wiz $34.00
17. Get The Picture $34.00
8. Jennio $51.00
13. Harden $51.00
1. Scherzoso $61.00
9. Lautaro $81.00
18. Assertive Star $201.00
11. No Pushover $301.00

R3 Off The Track Subzero BM90 | 1400| 1:35pm

There’s plenty of potential winners here. Onus was solid last start in a totally unsuitable race at Randwick where the leader walked early and sprinted very fast sectionals home. Up to 1400m here with reasonable race pace looks the right conditions for him to run right up to his best. Others up to $10 in my assessed market can win without surprising.

Race Confidence: Average

Runner Name Rating
2. Onerous $4.80
4. Murt The Flirt $4.80
1. Rock Forthe Ladies $7.00
9. Fabulonh $7.50
6. Pepperano $10.00
10. Harbour Grey $16.00
5. Powerline $18.00
11. Bons Ghost $21.00
7. Grey Street $41.00
8. Wilscot $101.00
13. Uncle Keithy $101.00
12. What A Hoot $126.00
3. Gladstone $201.00

Best Profile

R4 3AW Talking Melbourne Mile | 1600m | 2:15pm

Pay Up Bro has been flying this preparation with consistent ratings that give him an edge over this opposition. I expect barrier 9 and a blending / swooping run around the outside to be well suited by this stage of the day / carnival.

Race Confidence: Average

Runner Name Rating
6. Pay Up Bro $3.40
1. Refulgent $6.50
3. Marwood $7.00
4. Grande Rosso $8.50
2. Mihany $11.00
7. Aurum Spirit $13.00
11. Polar Vortex $13.00
8. Violent Snow $31.00
5. New York $81.00
10. Paiges Boy $151.00
13. Way Too Easy $201.00

Best Profile

R5 TCL QUHD TV Stakes| 1800m | 2:55pm

Exocet ran well in the wrong part of the track last start and looks suited up to 1800m with a good run not that far behind the speed. Her ratings are clearly better than the others here.

Race Confidence: Good

Runner Name Rating
13. Exocet $2.10
4. Anahiem $11.00
1. Nemrud $12.00
10. Rockstar Rebel $13.00
8. Warrior Of Justice $17.00
14. River Goddess $18.00
5. Righteous Mate $21.00
12. Flash Boy $31.00
7. Zoffman $41.00
9. So Poysed $41.00
11. The Rich Fisher $41.00
3. Peter John $101.00
6. Shine Tak Star $101.00

Best Profile

R6 L’Oreal Paris Stakes | 1400m | 3:35pm

Rageese was scratched from a much easier race on Tuesday which suggests he’s really going well and his unlucky 2nd placing last start returned a rating that will be good enough to win this. But I’m not convinced there’s much value in his early market price given his position on the map. I have Clearly Innocent higher than his current market price. This is a clear step up on his best form so far and while he has potential, there seems far too much factored into his price. Hooked is the knockout down in grade.

Race Confidence: Low

Runner Name Rating
13. Rageese $4.00
1. Takedown $5.00
9. Federal $6.00
11. Cleary Innocent $6.00
4. Ninth Legion $13.00
2. Arod $14.00
3. Amovatio $21.00
5. Hooked $31.00
6. Kenjorwood $61.00
10. Cosmic Cube $81.00
14. Taddei Tondo $201.00

R7 Mumm Stakes | 1000m | 4:15pm

Hellbent’s last start Caulfield win stamped him as a potential top class Sprinter at a time where the older horses ranks lack depth. He’s drawn the right part of the track and gets decent pace up front to sprint home over the top of them.

Race Confidence: Good

Runner Name Rating
4. Hellbent $1.80
1. Terravista $4.00
3. Redzel $12.00
2. Flamberge $31.00
8. Shaf $41.00
5. General Truce $51.00
6. Bullpit $51.00
10. Runsati $51.00
9. Tarco $101.00
13. Tuscany Hero $401.00

Best Profile

R8 Crown Oaks | 2500m | 5:00pm

Yankee Rose has consistently strong ratings this preparation that are simply far better than her opposition have been able to produce so far in their career. The dominant filly leading into the Oaks has a terrific winning record and Yankee Rose certainly fits that profile.

Race Confidence: Good

Runner Name Rating
1. Yankee Rose $1.50
7. Harlow Gold $11.00
5. Eleonora $17.00
8. Bella Sorellastra $26.00
3. Sebring Dream $26.00
4. Moqueen Dream $26.00
6. Smart As You Think $34.00
2. Missrock $34.00
10. Lamma Hilton $126.00
9. Peeking Duck $201.00
15. Penthouse Kitten $251.00
13. My Girl Chilly $301.00
11. Lasqueti Spirit $301.00
12. Nina Peak $301.00
14. Red Velvet Swing $301.00

Best Profile

R9 Crown Resorts Plate | 1100m | 5:45pm

Spright stamped herself as a very promising filly last start with a dominant win against the boys in Sydney. She’ll be suited again by good pace up front and with clearly running will be very hard to hold out. Super Too was caught in the wrong part of the track last time and her price should be closer to Kentucky Miss in the market.

Race Confidence: Good

Runner Name Rating
4. Spright $2.90
5. Kentucky Miss $5.00
7. Super Too $8.00
19. Miss Wonderland $13.00
6. Conchita $15.00
11. Faiths Encore $21.00
3. Twist Tops $26.00
13. Rosa Carolina $26.00
2. Hear The Chant $34.00
8. Showpero $41.00
9. Motown Lil $51.00
1. Selenia $61.00
14. Call Me Tess $67.00
16. Navagio $81.00
17. Pedrena $101.00
12. Moonlover $201.00
15. The Veal Thing $201.00
18. Savaju $301.00

Best Profile

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