The Betfair Insider: Flemington, Thursday 3rd November 2016 – Oaks Day

Posted: November 2, 2016

Current Track Rating: Good 3

Rail: +3m

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Thursday – Max 19, partly cloudy. 10% chance of rain (0mm)

 

R6 L’Oreal Paris Stakes G3 1400m

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 3 of past 5 winners have been SP favourites
  • 4 of past 5 winners have drawn outside barrier 8
  • 2 of past 5 winners have come through the Toorak Hcp
  • 4 of past 5 winners have carried 56kg or less

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Disposition – SP $3.00 fav 57.5kg BR 11 – 4th up, 3 weeks 2nd Toorak Hcp G1 1600m Caulfield

Hucklebuck – SP $2.80 fav 56kg BR 9 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st Durbridge Listed 1200m Morph

Smokin Joey – SP $41 55kg BR 11 – 2nd up, 4wk freshen 12th Gilgai G2 1200m Flemington

Fawkner – SP $3.10 fav 55.5kg BR 6 – 3rd up, 4wk freshen 1st HQ Listed 1410m Flemington

2011 – Woorim – SP $12 56kg BR 15 – 5th up, 3 weeks 6th Toorak Hcp G1 1600m Caulfield

Major Players 

1. Takedown: In fantastic form after winning two strong races in Sydney, the second of which he beat Our Boy Malachi who subsequently won impressively at Caulfield. Last start he was held up from the turn till around the 180m mark and ran a quicker last 200m than the winner Voodoo Lad who had all the momentum. Map is of some concern but with even luck he is right in this despite being outside the profile at the weights.

5. Hooked: Bomb fresh horse that was heavily backed to win the Doomben 10,000 first up last time in Brisbane. Has changed stables and returns to a big track first up at 1400m. He’s drawn a positive gate with Damien Oliver engaged and looks well over the odds. He’s been around forever but is still only a 6yo stallion.

7. Akavoroun: Should get a lovely run in behind the speed horses with cover. Produced his trademark good splits to hit the front, only to be run down by Ulmann at this track and trip a month ago. He beat Federal by 0.2L that day and meets him 2.5kg worse off. In the market and has Mark Zahra again so should go close.

9. Federal: As noted above he meets Akavoroun 2.5kg better for a small defeat two starts ago. He went up in trip most recently and failed to run the Crystal Mile out strongly. The inside draw must be a query despite the rail out to 3 metres. He’ll conserve energy in the run and provided that the inside has not given out he profiles well for the race.

11. Clearly Innocent: Got a long way out of his ground, as is his style behind Keen Array when he ran home in similar Last 600/400 to the winner. Will be much improved at his second start in Melbourne and has the raw talent to finish off strongly. He’s the big improver down in the weights and this looks to be his Grand Final.

13. Rageese: Sound effort when second to Mater Reset last time out. Master Reset has gone on to win again. He’s a costly horse to follow having been beaten his last three starts when heavily in the market on each occasion. Flemington suits and Weir horses improve into their preparation but off the map I’m prepared to leave him at the price.

 

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Rageese – 10 units at $6 or less.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Hooked – 2 units at $21 or more

R8 Crown Oaks G1 2500m

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 3 of past 5 winners have used Wakeful as their lead up run
  • 3 of past 5 winners have won at their last start
  • 1 of past 5 winners have been SP favourites

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Rail +2, Heavy 9

1st – Jameka – SP $4.60 55.5kg BR 7 – 5th up, 12 days 1st Moonee Valley Vase G2 2040m Moonee Valley

2nd – Honesta – SP $8.50 55.5kg BR 11 – 8th up, 3 weeks 2nd Ethereal Stakes G3 2000m Caulfield

3rd – Ambience – SP $4 fav 55.5kg BR BR 9 – 6th up, 5 days 1st Wakeful Stakes G2 2000m Flemington

Rail + 4, Good 3

1st – Set Square – SP $7.50 55.5kg BR 2 – 4th up, 4 weeks 1st Ethereal Stakes Listed 2000m Caulfield

2nd – Thunder Lady – SP $10 55.5kg BR 8 – 6th up, 1 week 1st Wakeful G2 2000m Flemington

3rd – Golconda – $21 55.5kg BR 1 – 3rd up, 1 week 4th Wakeful G2 2000m Flemington

Rail +3, Good 4

1st – Kirramosa – SP $2.70 fav 55.5kg BR 10 – 5th up, 1 week 1st Wakeful G2 2000m Flemington

2nd – Zanbagh – SP $7 55.5kg BR 2 – 4th up, 2 weeks 1st F&M 0 – 64 Handicap 2000m Ballarat

3rd – Solicit – SP $11 55.5kg BR 4 – 6th up, 1 week 3rd Wakeful G2 2000m Flemington

Rail + 5, Good 3

1st – Dear Demi – SP $5 55.5kg BR 12 – 7th up, 1 week 4th Wakeful G2 2000m Flemington

2nd – Zydeco – SP $2.40 fav 55.5kg BR 7 – 6th up, 1 week 1st Wakeful G2 2000m Flemington

3rd – Summerbliss – SP $9 55.5kg BR 1 – 3rd up, 4 weeks 2nd Ethereal Stakes Listed 2000m Caulfield

1stMosheen – SP $5 55.5kg BR 2 – 7th up, 4 days 6th Myer Classic G1 1600m Flemington

Major Players 

1. Yankee Rose: After a brave performance in the Flight Stakes when second to Global Glamour, she went to Randwick as the $2.30 favourite in the Spring Champion Stakes and finished with a scintillating burst to overpower her male rivals, which included the subsequent VRC Derby winner in Prized icon. Yankee Rose was then a brave 3rd in Australia’s premier WFA race, the Cox Plate finishing right next to Hartnell. The VRC Oaks is often one by the classiest mare and without doubt Yankee Rose fits that bill.

2. Miss Rock: Finished third in the Wakeful behind Tiamo Grace but running on empty as she crossed the line. Not for me.

3. Sebring Dream: Second in the Wakeful, Sebring Dream put herself into the race and battled away strongly, although no match for Tiamo Grace over the concluding stages. She looks a place chance only.

5. Eleonora: After being luckless in the Edward Manifold, Eleonora bounced back with a convincing 1.3 lengths in the Ethereal Stakes. She ran right through the line at 2000m and the form has since been franked with the unlucky Tiamo Grace winning the Wakeful at her next start. Deserved second pick and I believe she has a few lengths on the field coming from the Wakeful.

7. Harlow Gold: She finished next to Prized Icon in the Moonee Valley Vase and the market has kept her very safe around the $8 mark. She travelled on the right part of the track in the Vase while Prized Icon did the majority of his work on the inside without cover, which was required on the day.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Yankee Rose – 20 units at $1.50 or more.

R9 Gucci Stakes G3 1100m

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • No race profile. Race changed from 1000m 3yo Fillies Sprint to 1100m

Major Players 

2. Hear the Chant: Luckless when last in the Champagne Stakes at The Valley, before a strong win in last time out after getting all the favours in the run. Dropping back from 1200m is a profile I like when betting into 1100m straight races. However, she carries the penalty for that win and will have a wall of horses to pick through and as such I’m happy to bet around her.

4. Spright: Two strong wins at her last two starts in Sydney where she sat off strongly paced races to finish over the top. Is likely to be a long way back and will need a good ride. This is her first attempt up the Flemington straight and she’s opened up a clear favourite around the $4 mark. At that price I’m happy to let her.

5. Kentucky Miss: Another who had her last run in Sydney winning in a lower grade race that looked a nice tune up for this race. The difference to Spright is her experience up the straight, winning the Listed Cap D’antibes in September. Looks well drawn in barrier 16 and will be hard to beat.

6. Conchita: Sat wide two starts ago when she failed at 1200m. She subsequently dropped back to 1000m and kept a high cruising speed recording a 10.61 section from the 800 to the 600 to win easily from Biased Witness who ran 2nd yesterday. She is tempting at double figure odds but she may be 1000m specialist.

7. Super too: Freshened since a close 4th to Kentucky Miss when she led on her own down on the inside (all 3 placed runners were on the outside rail) in the Cap D’antibes. Has ticked over nicely to win a trial at Warwick Farm. She has also opened double figures odds now drawn in barrier 10. James McDonald now on is another bonus.

 

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Kentucky Miss – 2 units at $5 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Super Too – 3 units at $8 or more

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

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