The Betfair Insider: Flemington, Sunday 2nd October 2016

Current Track Rating: Good 4

Rail: Out 9m

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Saturday 1st – Max 18. Showers 10-18mm

Sunday 2nd – Max 23 Rain/Windy 5-20mm

 

R4 Gilgai Stakes G2 1200m 

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 1 of past 5 winners has been first up
  • 4 of past 5 winners have used Bobbie Lewis or McEwen stakes as their lead up run
  • 4 of past 5 winners have carried 56.5kg or more to win
  • 2 of past 5 winner have been SP favourites

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Chautauqua – SP $1.30 fav 57kg BR 9 – 2nd up, (4 wk freshen) 1st McEwen Stks G2 M Valley

Chautauqua – SP $2.80 fav 56.5kg BR 1 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 1st Bobbie Lewis G3 Flemington

Platelet – SP $8.50 56kg BR 5 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 4th McEwen Stks G2 Moonee Valley

Hallowell Belle – SP $7.50 53.5kg BR 5 – 1st up, 17 weeks 3rd James Carr 1400m Randwick

Temple Of Boom – SP $11 56.5kg BR 9 – 6th up, (4 wk Fres) 6th Bobbie Lewis G3 1200m Flem

Major Players 

1. Under the Louvre: Comes out of the Bobbie Lewis where he closed late for fourth but never threatened. Ready to get back to his best. Tempo appears to be against him despite his ability to run good late sectionals.

2. The Quarterback: Won the Newmarket at the track and distance however that was with a big bias in his favour on the outside fence. Fair first up but looks under the odds.

3. Stratum Star: No form at 1200m or first up. No doubt he has the quality but prefer later in the prep

4. Faatinah: On pace winner of the Bobbie Lewis. Was in the best part of the track but so were all the others from the race opposing him today and they all ran comparative sectionals. Looks to get a picnic up front. Given the soft lead if she doesn’t win I suspect it will be very late that she is run down. Put up a lay bet for half the stake (4 units) at $1.50 and select keep at jump and another at $1.1 for the other half (4 units)

6. Durendal: Faded late when his condition gave out. Generally, goes forward from first to second up and gets a lovely run tagging the leader. Unsuited at the set weights and penalties but not the roughest chance.

7. We’ve Got This: Was hard against the advantageous outside rail in the Bobbie Lewis when he finished hard with the fastest last 200m. SWP conditions against.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Faatinah for 8 units at $4.5+

R6 Edward Manifold Stakes G2 1600m 

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 4 of past 5 winners have been 4th up or deeper into preparation
  • 4 of past 5 winners have had an SP price $6 or less
  • 4 of past 5 winners have raced at 1400m at their previous start

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Badawiya – SP $4.80 55.5kg BR 3 – 4th up, 2 weeks 1st 3YO BM64 1400m Pakenham

Fontein Ruby – SP $6.00 55.5kg BR 8 – 5th up, (6 wk freshen) 5th 3YOF 80k 1400m Caulfield

Se Sauver – SP $17 55.5kg BR 9 – 5th up, 2 weeks 6th 1000 Guineas Prelude 1400m Caulfield

Maybe Discreet – SP $5.00 55.5kg BR 15 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 1st Morph Guineas 1600m Morp

Mosheen – SP $5.00 55.5kg BR 8 – 4th up, 2 weeks 3rd 1000 Guineas Prelude 1400m Caulf

Major Players 

1. Chipanda: Has missed the start at her two runs this preparation. Ran on well before her condition gave out behind Foxplay last start. Foxplay would win this easily. However, I’m Concerned with her barrier antics. One to bet in-play if she starts well.

2. Exocet: Had the clear air on the outside to unleash a powerful sprint last start. Looks an exciting prospect. Interesting turnaround in prices against Serenely Discreet. Exocet’s last start BSP was $7.80 against Serenely Discreet $5.90.

3. Serenely Discreet: As noted she started shorter than Exocet and was never tested after running into trouble at every turn last start. Whether she would have won is debatable but she would have finished much closer at the least. The question is does she have the stored energy to put in her big performance in this race as Exocet did last start.

5. Eleonora: Spun her wheels on the synthetic before getting going late to win at her first Australian start when $1.40. Not sure she is up to this class yet.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Exocet for 10 units at $4+

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Serenely Discreet for 2.5 units at $8+

Back on Betfair BACK – INPLAY (WIN) Chipanda (If she jumps cleanly) for 2 units at $7+

R7 Turnbull Stakes G1 2000m 

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 3 of past 5 winners have been 3rd up
  • 3 of past 5 winners were rising in distance 1600-1800 up to 2000m
  • 4 of past 5 winners carried 56.5kg or less
  • 4 of past 5 winners were off a 2 week break between runs
  • The last 2 winners were Sydney trained

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Rail +9m, Good 3

1st – Preferment – SP $11 56.5kg BR 9 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st Hill Stakes G2 2000m Randwick

2nd – Royal Descent – SP $6 53.5kg BR 12 – 4th up, 2 weeks 2nd George Main G1 1600m Randwick

3rd – Set Square – SP $19 54.5kg BR 6 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 5th Handicap 90k 1700m Flemington

Rail +9m, Good 3

1st – Lucia Valentina – SP $8.5 56.5kg BR 5 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 6th George Main G1 1600m Randwick

2nd – Lidari – SP $18 55.5kg BR 11 – 4th up, 2 weeks 4th Underwood G1 1800m Caulfield

3rd – Brambles – SP $10 54.5 BR 3 – 4th up, 3 weeks 1st Hcp 80k 1700m Flemington

Rail +9m, Good 3

1st – Happy Trails – SP $26 57.5kg BR 5 – 4th up, 2 weeks 4th Underwood G1 1800m Caulfield

2nd – Puissance De Lune –SP $3.90 fav 56.5kg BR 1 – 4th up, 2 wk 7th Underwood G1 1800m Caulfield

3rd – Fawkner – SP $13 55.5kg BR 6 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 5th George Main G1 1600m Randwick

Rail +9m, Good 3

1st – Green Moon – SP $4 fav 55.5kg BR 8 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 2nd Feehan G1 1600m Moonee Valley

2nd – Seville – SP $31 54.5kg BR 2 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 5th Naturalism G3 2000m Caulfield

3rd – December Draw – SP $6 57.5kg BR 3 –  3rd up, 2 weeks 3rd Underwood G1 1800m Caulfield

December Draw – SP $2.15 fav 54.5kg BR 7 – 6th up, 2 wk 1st Naturalism G3 2000m Caulfield

Major Players 

4. Hartnell: In devastating form this preparation rating right up there with Winx. The trainer has found the key to this horse and I can’t see any reason to think he can’t hold his form although his Victorian form last Spring was a long way from his best. Short but should win and gain the stable a much needed Victorian Group 1.

5. The United States: Held up in the Group Two Dato Tan Chin Nam before finishing powerfully down the outside. Ran past Jameka who has subsequently won. Will be back on the fence and second up is a concern but every chance.

8. Tally: Strong last time in much weaker grade. Third in the ATC Derby last preparation and a win over Palentino at 2040. A 4 year-old with plenty of scope to improve again. Big value and can announce himself as a big Caulfield Cup contender with a string performance here.

9. Jameka: The ruling Caulfield Cup favourite who won the Naturalism easily last start in her career best run which is tough to back up. She has raced in the top classes her whole career and may lead by default here. Happy to bet around her this time.

13. Raw Impulse: Went to Adelaide and returned to his best albeit in a much weaker race. Has been an SP of $4.20 or less in each Australian run but this is his toughest test to date. Never doubt Weir but not convinced he’s well suited under the set weight and penalty conditions of this race. Can surprise.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Hartnell for 10 units at $2.10+

Back on Betfair BACK (E/W) Tally for 2 units a win at $21+ & 2 units place at $6+

R8 Blazer Stakes G2 1400m 

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 4 of past 5 winners carried 56.5kg or less
  • 2 of past 5 winners came through the How Now Stakes
  • 3 of past 5 winners have had barriers 10+
  • 4 of past 5 winners have had an SP of $8+

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

La Passe – SP $41 55kg BR 8 – 5th up, 2 weeks 4th BM78 40k 1200m Pakenham

Forever Loved – SP $13 54kg BR 10 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 12th How Now Stks G3 1200m Caulfield

Fire Up Fifi – SP $21 55.5kg BR 15 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 12th Sheraco G3 1200m Rosehill

Mosheen – SP $4.60 58.5kg fav BR 4 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 5th How Now Stks G3 1200m Caulfield

Lady Lynette – SP $8.0 56.5kg BR 14 – 4th up, 3 weeks 3rd Stocks Stks G2 1600m Flemington

Major Players 

9. Metaphorical: Another that hasn’t won for some time (11 starts) but hit the line really well after being held up last start, will be back and on the inside again which looks problematic.

10. Manageress:  Coming off a good effort in her first up run this preparation, given three weeks to recover from that. She has to be a hope but others preferred.

11. Telopea: Backs up after hitting the line well in the Group 1 Rupert Clarke last week in one of the best efforts of her career. Typical Weir iron horse who has been up since March.

12. French Emotion: Was very strong last start when overrun late. Has put together a string of good performances that suggest she can improve again to a new peak.

14. Rockolicious: Looks like he can take advantage of the inside draw to be on the leaders back or three back the inside. She was wide and kept fighting to the line. With a better gate and run she will be hard to beat.

 

Betting Strategy

 

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) French Emotion for 7 units at $5+

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Rockolicious for 3 units at 7+

 

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

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