The Betfair Insider: Flemington, Saturday October 29 2016 – Derby Day Group 1 Races

Posted: October 27, 2016 at 5:54 pm

Current Track Rating: Good 3

Rail: True

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 28th – Max 19. Mostly sunny. 0% chance of rain

Saturday 29th – Max 24. Mostly sunny. 5% chance of rain (0mm)

 

The Betfair Insider: Flemington, Saturday October 29 2016 – Derby Day Races 1-4

 

R5 Coolmore Stud Stakes G1 1200m 3YO

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 2 of past 5 winners have been SP Favourites
  • 2 of past 5 winners won G2 Roman Consul in lead up (2014 & 2013), Japonisme 3rd (2015)
  • 3 of past 3 winners Chris Waller trained
  • 3 of past 5 winners drawn Barrier 8 or wider

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Rail True, Soft 5

1st – Japonisme – SP $21 56.5kg BR 3 – 8th up, Freshened 4 weeks 3rd Roman Consul G2 1200m Randwick

2nd – Keen Array – SP $13 56.5kg BR 5 – 6th up, 2.5 weeks 1st Blue Sapphire Listed 1200m Caulfield

3rd – Counterattack – SP $11 56.5kg BR 11 – 4th up, 2 weeks 1st Brian Crowley Listed 1200m Randwick

Rail True, Good 3

1st – Brazen Beau – SP $8 56.5kg BR 15 – 3rd up, Freshened 4 weeks 1st Roman Consul G2 1200m Randwick

2nd – Delectation – SP $51 56.5kg BR 7 – 4th up, 2 weeks 4th BR Crowley Listed 1200m Randwick

3rd – Kuro – SP $6.50 56.5kg BR 16 – 4th up, 2 weeks 1st BR Crowley Listed 1200m Randwick

Rail True, Good 4

1st – Zoustar – SP $2 fav 56.5kg BR 10 – 4th up, Freshened 4 weeks 1st Roman Consul G2 1200m Randwick

2nd – Not Listenin’ To Me – SP $11 56.5kg BR 5 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 2nd Red Anchor G3 1200m MV

3rd – Lion Of Belfort – SP $15 56.5kg BR 4 – 5th up, 3 weeks 1st Blue Sapphire Listed 1200m Caulfield 

Nechita – SP $5 54.5kg BR 3 – 3rd up, Freshened 7 weeks 6th Golden Rose G1 1400m Rosehill

Sepoy – SP $1.30 fav 56.5kg BR 8 – 5th up, 2 weeks 1st Caulfield Sprint G2 1100m Caulfield

Major Players 

1. Capitalist: Appears the ‘competition’ has caught up to the Champion 2YO. Capitalist is still racing very well and if not for a wet track, could have won the Manikato last Friday night when scratched and saved for this. Meets star turn 4kg better for his first up defeat. Can’t be completely discounted coming from the right profile race. Knockout.

2. Extreme Choice: His only defeat came as a 2YO when bombing the start in the Golden Slipper. He returned with a big win at WFA in the Moir and arrives here second up against his own age bracket. He exploded off the bend beautifully at the Valley albeit a weaker edition of the Moir (Chautauqua and Buffering have since failed again). Trialled well up the straight in preparation for this and is a deserved favourite, however is no stand out on form or ratings. He’s equal top pick of three for mine (with Astern & Star Turn) and therefore would have to say is the least value of the three.

3. Astern: He’s appears to have come back a bigger and better horse as a 3YO. He has taken his performances (and ratings) to a new level as a 3YO whereas it can be argued that Capitalist & Extreme Choice have (so far) just held their 2YO numbers. He ran a scintillating 32.29 for his final 600m in the Roman Consul and could have won that race had they not gone some 8L slower than usual. He’s drawn gate 8, which is traditionally the place to be up the Flemington straight, and will be steaming home.

4. Flying Artie: His form ties in with the above 3YO’s but has been held back with only one start this preparation. That was in the Blue Sapphire where he raced on speed (infamously ‘barged out’ on the turn) and put away a fair field in good time. Drawing the inside is traditionally not the place to be up the Flemington straight which has to be a slight knock on the chances of a horse who I thought would be well suited up the straight.

5. Star Turn: He’s got the highest rating return of any runner in this field and that was in the Group 3 San Domenico first up. At his following start he was ridden below average (held up for too long) when an unlucky second to Astern in the Run to the Roses before being freshened for the Schillaci Stakes where he demolished a good field of sprinters after sitting in an awkward three wide position with limited racing room. A bold front runner who can edge to the centre of the track and to me eye looks the horse with the best profile to suit the Flemington straight.

6. Russian Revolution: Due to the below average tempo on the 2016 edition of the Roman Consul, Russian Revolution is yet to return numbers that match it with the above 3YO’s. Having said that races are not always won by the best horse, they’re won by the horses which has the tactical advantage on the day. He’ll have a good break on some of his rivals here and has drawn what appears a perfect barrier in 10. Where yet to see him in a race with an average to above average tempo so I can understand why he is on the sixth line of betting.

 

Betting Strategy

You wont see a better field for a Coolmore Stud Stakes with our three top rating 3YO’s heading the market. Low confidence but Star Turn looks the value bet of the ‘big three’.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Star Turn for 2 units at $4 or more

R6 Myer Classic G1 1600m WFA Fillies & Mares

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 1 of past 5 winners have been SP favourites
  • 0 of past 5 winners have been 3yo fillies
  • 2 of past 5 winners have come through G2 Tristarc Stakes
  • 5 of past 5 winners have carried 57kgs
  • 5 of past 5 winners have been 3rd up or deeper into their preparation

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Rail True, Soft 5

1st – Politeness – SP $19 57kg BR 10 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 1st Plume Stakes G3 1200m Caulfield

2nd – Fenway – SP $26 56.5kg BR 12 – 4th up, 2 weeks 10th Coongy G3 2000m Caulfield

3rd – Azkadellia – SP $11 56.5kg BR 6 – 5th up, 1 week 2nd Tesio Stakes G3 1600m Moonee Valley

Rail True, Good 3

1st – Bonaria – SP $26 57kg BR 13 – 6th up, 2 weeks 7th Ladies Day Vase 1600m Caulfield

2nd – Sweet Idea – SP $6.50 57kg BR 1 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st Tristarc G2 1400m Caulfield

3rd – Catkins – SP $7.50 57kg BR 7 – 4th up, 2 weeks 3rd Tristarc G2 1400m Caulfield

Rail True, Good 4

1st – Red Tracer – SP $3.10 fav 57kg BR 10 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st Tristarc G2 1400m Caulfield

2nd – Catkins – SP $8 57kg BR 11 – 6th up, 1 week 1st Tesio Stakes G3 1600m Moonee Valley

3rd – Fire Up Fifi – SP $6.50 57kg BR 1 – 4th up, 2 weeks 5th Tristarc G2 1400m Caulfield

Appearance – SP $41 57kg BR 13 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 7th Tristarc G2 1400m Caulfield

Hurtle Myrtle – SP $16 57kg BR 13 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 5th Moonga Stakes G3 1400m Caulfield

Major Players 

1. Rising Romance: Well tried last start when back to mares grade, she underperformed based on her SP ($3.50) when fiftj in the Stocks Stakes. Prior runs rate well enough but she lacks that turn of foot to win these days.

2. First Seal: Winner of the Tristarc which has been a good guide for this race in the past. She had the absolute ‘gun run’ there so she’ll need a bit of luck from the inside gate on Saturday. Rates well but she’s no standout out to 1600m with others more suited.

4. Danish Twist: Ridden quietly in the Tristarc, she was a heavy drifter before finishing the race off strongly behind First Seal. Her run prior in the Premiere Stakes (3rd to Takedown, Our Boy Malachi) was a strong rating race and looks ideally suited up to 1600m from gate 8. Very dangerous.

7. Don’t Doubt Mamma: Has won the Lets Elope and Stocks Stakes back-to-back this preparation and is absolutely flying. This appears a couple of lengths stronger than what she has been beating so needs to lift once more.

10. Dixie Blossoms: She’s got the best sprint in the race and has drawn well in barrier four. Is fifth up on Saturday and is coming off a scintillating 1.3L win in the Group 3 Angst Stakes. Should be able to relax behind an average tempo and will be weaving through and hitting the line late. A horse on the rise and looks well set up here.

12. Euro Angel: Lightly raced 4YO for Team Hawkes. Impressive winning the Ladies Day Vase and the form has since been franked with Kaniana coming out to win the Tesio last start. Needs to lift again but on an upward spiral so needs to be respected.

13. Pure Pride: Doing good things off slow paces but can’t be dismissed as she can reel off a 33 final sectional, much like Dixie Blossoms.

14. Whispering Brook & #15. I Am A Star are the interesting runners in the Myer with the two 3YO Fillies getting the 7.5kg weight relief against the Mares. This has obviously been a massive advantage for the boys against the older sprinters so it will be extremely interesting to see how that plays out on Saturday. Both horses will need to lift their performances but 2 or 3 lengths to win this but on weights and measures its well and truly achievable. Just don’t look at the race profile if you fancy backing them!

 

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) First Seal – 10 units at $4 or less

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Danish Twist – 2.5 unit at $6 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Dixie Blossoms – 2.5 unit at $6 or more

R7 AAMI Victoria Derby G1 2500m 3YO

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 1 of past 5 winners have been SP Favourites (Tarzino 2015)
  • 5 of past 5 winners have been 5th run or deeper into their preparation
  • 2 of past 5 winners have come via the Norm Robinson
  • 1 of past 5 winners have come via the Vase at Moonee Valley

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Rail True, Soft 5

1st – Tarzino – SP $2.90 fav 55.5kg BR 10 – 6th up, 1 week 3rd Vase G2 2040m Moonee Valley

2nd – Etymology – SP $13 55.5kg BR 9 – 6th up, 2 weeks 3rd Caulfield Classic G3 2000m Caulfield

3rd – Kia Ora Koutou – SP $6.50 55.5kg BR 1 – 5th up, 4 weeks 1st BM72 2200m Belmont Park

Rail True, Good 3

1st – Preferment – SP $8.50 55.5kg BR 6 – 5th up, 2 weeks 2nd Geelong Classic Listed 2200m Geelong

2nd – Bondeiger – SP $11 55.5kg BR 1 – 5th up, 1 week 7th Moonee Valley Vase G2 2040m M Valley

3rd – Nozomi – SP $41 55.5kg BR 16 – 6th up, 2 weeks 1st Geelong Classic Listed 2200m Geelong

Rail True, Good 4

1st – Polanski – SP $5.50 55.5kg BR 1 – 5th up, 2 weeks 1st Norm Robinson G3 2000m Caulfield

2nd – Complacent – SP $7 55.5kg BR 14 – 4th up, 3 weeks 1st Champion Stakes G1 2000m Randwick

3rd – Thunder Fantasy – SP $31 55.5kg BR 7 – 5th up, 3 weeks 9th Champion Stks G1 2000m Randwick

Fiveandahalfstar – SP $41 55.5kg BR 5 – 7th up, 1 week 1st BM72 1800m Rosehill

Sangster – SP $13 55.5kg BR 7 – 6th up, 2 weeks 2nd Norm Robinson G3 2000m Caulfield

Major Players 

1. Sacred Elixir: The race favourite arrives here fourth up (5 of past 5 winners were 5th up or deeper) after an impressive win in the Moonee Valley Vase. He travelled extremely well throughout and was held up for the majority of the final 500m of the Vase before bursting between runners late finishing the race off in the strongest final sectionals of the race. The underrated Damian Lane is replaced by Zac Purton who has barrier one which has proved OK based on past Derby results.

2. Prized Icon: Not particularly ‘eye catching’ in the Vase, however he kept his action through the line indicating to me he’s crying out for the step up to 2500m. Is sixth up into his prep and comes off 2 x 2000m runs and a 1800m run prior giving him a better base than the race favourite.

3. Swear: Little has separated Swear and Prized Icon in Sydney however Swear’s connections have chosen to go the 21 days between runs. For that reason I can’t have him ahead of Prized Icon who has a better foundation to run the 2500m.

4. Rocketeer: Motored home in the Caulfield Classic when an unlucky second to Good Standing. He raced a little to keen for my liking despite his strong closing sectionals. It was a great run but was it a great Derby trial?

6. Inference: Like Rocketeer, attacked the line in the Caulfield Classic but was a little keen in the run.

10. So Si Bon: He had a nice run in the Vase but just couldn’t go with Sacred Elixir over the final 100m. He looks a top chance but I am not expecting him to turn the tables on the winner given he had an extra run under his belt.

11. Kent: Loved the way Kent finished off the UCI Stakes but then was a touch disappointing in the Caulfield Classic. A dry track and back to his the scene of his UCU Stakes run should be a plus.

13. Beach Life: Trapped extremely wide in the Caulfield Classic yet still finished off his final 200m section in the third fastest of the race. Perhaps an insight into some strong staying potential and looks a real smokey.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Sacred Elixir– 6 units at $3 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Beach Life – 2 units at $12 or more

R8 Cantala Stakes G1 1600m Handicap

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • This race (previously the Emirates Stakes) has been brought forward 7 days
  • 1 of past 5 winners have been SP Favourites
  • 2 of past 5 winners have carried 55.5kg or less
  • 4 of past 5 winners have started in Barrier 9 or closer

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Rail True, Soft 5

1st – Turn Me Loose – SP $9 56.5kg BR 10 – 5th up, 2 weeks 1st Crystal Mile G2 1600m Moonee Valley

2nd – Politeness – SP $10 53kg BR 7 – 4th up, 1 week 1st Myer Classic G1 1600m Flemington

3rd – Rock Sturdy – SP $31 52.5kg BR 12 – 5th up, 2 weeks 2nd Open Handicap 1600m Randwick

Rail +4m, Good 3

1st – Hucklebuck – SP $10 55.5kg BR 5 – 3rd up, 1 week 1st Yellowglen Group 3 1400m Flemington

2nd – Lucky Hussler – SP $7 55kg BR 13 – 5th up, 3 weeks 1st Moonga Stakes G3 1400m Caulfield

3rd – The Cleaner – SP $16 58kg BR 6 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 9th Cox Plate G1 2040m Moonee Valley

Rail +3, Good 4

1st – Boban – SP $4.6 fav 57kg BR 3 – 5th up, 3 weeks 1st Moonga Stakes G3 1400m Caulfield

2nd – Somkin’ Joey – SP $21 52.5kg BR 6 – 2nd up, 1 week 1st TAB.com.au Stakes G3 1400m Flemington

3rd – Speediness – SP $9 55kg BR 1 – 5th up, 2 weeks 2nd Crystal Mile G2 1600m Moonee Valley

Happy Trails – SP $13 58kg BR 9 – 6th up, 2 weeks 10th Cox Plate G1 2040m Moonee Valley

Albert The Fat – SP $17 54kg BR 9 – 4th up, 3 Weeks 2nd Moonga Stakes G3 1400m Caulfield

Major Players 

1. Palentino: Not sure what happened in the Epsom (beaten 7.7L) but his prior run in the Makybe Diva Stakes at Group 1 level would have him right in this. Perhaps he needs the sting out and he wont get that here. Risk.

2. The United States: Winner of the Crystal Mile after a seven week break. The United States backs up seven days later with his third run at 1600m. This race should be run at a good clip and I think that will play into his favour. He’s a good horse, already a Group 1 winner (Ranvet) and sure to be strong late.

4. He’s Our Rokki: He’s won five races in a row now and has really established himself as a serious race horse on both form and ratings. He’s well set up fourth up to continue his winning ways and is a last start Group 1 winner.

6. Thunder Fantasy: Class runner who holds a rating close to his PB at this track and trip as a 3yo in the Australian Guineas. He sprinted gamely in an open handicap first up over 1400m lumping 63kg in the process. He drops 8kg into this and from barrier six will race with cover. Appears overlooked in early markets.

7. Voodoo Lad: Winner on the Moonga, unlucky in the Rupert Clarke and just absolutely flying. He’s yet to win at Flemington and is up to 1600m for this first time. Two little queries heading into this race.  

9. Good Project: A big weight drop of 5.5kg from his last start fourth in the Moonga (fits profile) which looks to be a good foundation run coming here third up for his Grand Final. He’ll get every favour in running and Zac Purton is a bonus.

11. Mackintosh: First up winner of the Theo Marks and then looked the winner of the Group 1 Epsom Stakes before being run down by Hauraki and Dibayani on the line. Drawn well and 28-days between runs looks very suitable after such a brutal Epsom. Once again, a return of his last start puts him right in this finish and looks the stable elect with Joao Moreira on board.

16. Seaburge: Looked the winner of the Group 1 Guineas before coming to the end of his run late. Drops 6.5kg on that run and kept nice a fresh for this. Rates well, weighted well but a big question mark on my speed map.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Mackintosh – 2 units at $10 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Thunder Fantasy – 1 unit at $17 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Good Project – 1 unit at $17 or more

 

The Betfair Insider: Flemington, Saturday October 29 2016 – Derby Day Race 9

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

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