The Betfair Insider: Flemington, Saturday 6th August 2016 – Aurie’s Star Handicap

Current Track Rating: Soft 6

Rail: +7m

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 5th – Max 15°C. Mostly sunny.

Saturday 6th – Max 14°C. Cloudy.

 

R7 Aurie’s Star Handicap 1200m Group 3

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 5 of the past 5 winners have had an SP of $10 or less
  • 4 of the past 5 winners have been 3 weeks or less between runs
  • 4 of the past 5 winners have carried 54kgs
  • 2 of the past 5 winners raced in Victoria prior to wining the Aurie’s Star
  • 1 of the past 5 winner have been 1st up

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Shiraz – BR 1 54kg SP $3.30 – 3rd up, 3 weeks, 1st BM 90 1200m Rosehill

Tiger Tees – BR 6 59.5kg SP $2.80 – 1st up, 10 weeks, 7th BTC Cup Group 1 1200m Doomben

Broken – BR 6 54kg SP $10 – 6th up, 1 week, 3rd Open HCP 1000m Moonee Valley

Shanghai Warrior – BR 5 54kg SP $8 – 3rd up, 3 weeks, 1st 3YO HCP 1100m Flemington

Temple of Boom – BR 12 54kg SP $8 – 4th up, 3 weeks, 10th Ramornie HCP LR 1200m Grafton

Major Players 

1. Dibayani: Is a horse with a history of racing keenly so the solid pace of 1200m may actually suit him down to the ground first up, despite his form looking better over longer trips. His first up third to Mourinho and The Cleaner this time last year would be good enough to have him in the finish and looks a nice bet at double figure odds.

2. Smart Volatility: Is following the same path as Temple of Boom who won the Ramornie before taking out the Aurie’s Star back in 2011. Smart Volatility put in a mammoth run on the day at Grafton to the Ramornie after sitting wide without cover for the entire race. This looks much tougher with the likes of Big Money and Steel Zip (2nd & 3rd) a level below these gallopers.

4. Mighty Like: He won the 1200m lead up race over the same course and distance just two weeks ago and drops 3.5kg on that run. That was not a strong rating race on the day and is probably looking for more distance heading into this. He’ll be in the finish but don’t be alarmed if he drifts in betting.

5. Tashbeeh: Runs well first up but is resuming off an 11-run campaign. Watch betting but the 1200m appears too short.

7. Mr Chard: Ran second in this race in 2014 behind Tiger Tees and the stable has a habit of getting them ready first up off long breaks. I suggest having him on your side at big odds. He put in a nice quiet trial in July.

9. Ruettiger: He’s a last start track & distance winner but unlike Might Like, he did it in good time. He’s got the right data to win this race and is deserved of favouritism. I don’t expect him to run any better than his last start but he doesn’t have to. He’ll be right there at the finish.

12. Just Magical: He was a fair return first up from a lengthy break. He looks a really sneaky chance at good odds based on his second to Ruettiger at Sale back in 2015. On that occasion he was severely hampered and meets the favourite well at the weights. I’d expect him to drift in the market and like Mr Chard, I’d like to have him on my side given how well he maps in running.

13. Sooboog: He had every opportunity first up at Flemington in the race taken out by Lord Von Costa. It was a nice soft pace and he should be able to come on from that run but is too short for mine and would prefer a firm track. Looks a better bet placed in Adelaide where he’s a dual acceptor.

 

Betting Strategy

With the expected scratching of Beirut and possibly Sooboog, Ruettiger is going to very short heading into the Aurie’s Star.  I’m happy to bet wide looking for value.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Dibayani for 2 units at $10 or more.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Mr Chard for 1 unit at $20 or more.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Just Magical for 1 unit at $20 or more.

 

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

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