The Betfair Insider: Flemington, Saturday 10th September 2016 – Makybe Diva Stakes Day

Posted: September 9, 2016

Current Track Rating: Good 3, Expect Good 4 to Slow 5 or 6.

Rail: True

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 9th – Max 16°C – 90% chance of rain (5-15mm)

Saturday 10th – Max 16°C – 40% chance of rain (0-1mm)

 

R5 Danehill Stakes 1200m Group 2 3YO SW&P

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 2 of the past 5 winners have been 1st up (3 winners were 3 weeks between runs)
  • 2 of the past 5 winners have been odds on favourites
  • 4 of the past 5 winners carried 56kg or less
  • 1 of the past 5 winners have been a filly (Snitzerland)

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Kinglike – BR 5 56KG SP $12 – 1st up, 15 weeks, 1st 2YO Handicap 1200m Moonee Valley

Rich Enuff – BR 12 55.5KG SP $6 – 2nd up, 3 weeks, 1st McKenzie Stakes LR 1200m Moonee Valley

Charlie Boy – BR 4 55KG SP $21 – 1st up, 16 weeks + 2 trials, 7th Champagne Stakes Group 1 1600m Randwick

Snitzerland – BR 4 54.5KG SP $1.45 – 2nd up, 3 weeks, 1st San Domenico Group 3 1100m Rosehill

Sepoy – BR 3 58KG SP $1.14 – 2nd up, 3 weeks, 1st Vain Stakes LR 1100m Caulfield

Major Players 

1. Defcon: Winner of the McNeil after sneaking up on the fence and staving off the fast finishing Highland Beat. A solid return to racing which puts him well in contention here. I’m just not convinced that form line is strong enough to justify his short early quote.

3. Saracino: He won a Group 2 in strong time in New Zealand a rare feat for a 3yo going off the race history but the opposition is questionable and he did it with just the 51.5kg. He has a fitness edge over some key rivals here and is a big watch for the Murray Baker and Damien Oliver combination.

4. Archives: This helmet youngster from the O’Shea yard was very new to racing in his first campaign and was doing it all on raw ability. He hit the rail on debut but watching his last 100m that day he really sprouted wings. I loved his win at start two in the Hampden Stakes in Brisbane where he recorded good closing splits. Blinkers on for the first time in his career and if he looks the type that will love the straight. He’s a big striding colt with some x-factor so I’m keen to speck him at the price.

12. Samara Dancer: She won the Blue Diamond Prelude in good time, just a length slower than Flying Artie on the same day. She failed in the Blue Diamond but had excuses. Resumes with a couple of solid trials under her belt and is big odds considering she has returned the highest rating than any of her rivals. The only small knock is whether fillies are better suited here second up, that said Phillip Stokes has an impressive strike rate when travelling horses to Melbourne.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Archives – 3 units at $8 or more.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Samara Dancer – 2 units at $8 or more.

R6 Bobby Lewis Quality 1200m Group 2 4YO+ Handicap

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 3 of the past 5 winners have been 1st up
  • 4 of the past 5 winners have carried 56.5kg or less
  • 5 of the past 5 winners have been $5.50 or above
  • 5 of the past 5 jumped from barrier 7 or higher

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Churchill Dancer – BR 7 53KG SP $8 – 3rd up, 3 weeks, 1st BM90 1200m Moonee Valley

Chautauqua – BR 17 54KG SP $5.50 – 1st up, 17 weeks, 5th Scone Guineas 1400m Scone

Speediness – BR 10 56.5KG SP $20 – 1st up, 16 weeks, 1st Scone Cup Listed 1600m Scone

We’re Gonna Rock – BR 9 57KG SP $6.50 – 1st up, 17 weeks, 2nd The Goodwood Group 1 1200m Morphettville

Lone Rock – BR 15 54.5KG SP $21 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 5th Spring Preview Listed 1000m Moonee Valley

Major Players 

1. Under the Louvre: Outstanding last start in The Heath hitting the line hard after being trapped wide for the entire race. He hasn’t won up the straight but has run well. That gives him a winning hope, but coupled with the 59kg I will be against him on Saturday.

2. Xtravagant: A boom Kiwi horse who returned first up from a spell with an impressive 2.8L win at Group 3 level. The Flemington straight is a big question for him so at the price I’ll be overlooking him with respect to his ability.  

3. Generalife: He’s run well up the Flemington straight in the past with an unlucky 1.4L to Éclair Choice in good time. He was given a nice quiet run first up in Sydney and has drawn well in 12 for this race. He can run a good race here at nice odds.

6. Kinglike: Winner of the Danehill Stakes on this day last year over the same distance. Kinglike has run in high class races without winning so now finds himself on the minimum here which puts makes me confident he’ll be the BSP favourite. New trainer Gerald Ryan is a first up specialist and barrier 5 is ok. His trial was as good as any you will see in his lead up for this and his sectional data puts him slightly ahead of the Hayes & Dabernig runner Faatinah on career to date.

8. Santa Ana Lane: He was held up at vital stages in The Heath finishing third, not beaten far by winner Redzel and Under the Louvre. He meets Santa Ana Lane 4kg better off for that run but has drawn the tricky inside gate. He has a habit if hanging in so perhaps the rail can be a good guide for him. Barrier one might not be the place to be by race six.

10. Faatinah: Lightly raced gelding that handled himself with aplomb rising from benchmark 70 to Group 1 level last preparation. His last start behind Black Heart Bart was enormous when posted four wide without cover. He boxed on to be beaten only 2.7 lengths. Importantly here he meets Under The Louvre 5.5kgs better from that run. He fits the profile as a winner and looks the main danger to Kinglike.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Kinglike – 3 units at $5 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Faatinah – 2 units at $7.5 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Generalife – 0.5 units at $20 or more

R7 Makybe Diva Stakes 1600m G1 WFA

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 2 of the past 5 winners has been 2nd
  • 2 of the past 5 winners SP fav (2015 Fawkner & 2014 Dissident)
  • 1 of the past 5 winners has been a Mare
  • 0 of the past 5 winners has drawn between gates 1-5
  • Memsie Stakes has provided 4 of the past 6 placings (2014 & 2015)

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

1st – Fawkner – SP $4.80 EQ Fav 59kg BR 11 – 1st up, 44 weeks 10th Melbourne Cup G1 3200m Flemington

2nd – Rising Romance – SP $15 57kg BR 1 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 6th Memsie Stakes G1 1400m Caulfield

3rd – Entirely Platinum – SP $15 59kg BR 12 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 2nd Memsie Stakes G1 1400m Caulfield

1st – Dissident – SP $2.70 fav 58.5kg BR 6 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st Memsie Stakes G1 1400m Caulfield

2nd – Fawkner – SP $10 59kg BR 3 – 1st up, 25 weeks 7th William Reid G1 1200m Moonee Valley

3rd – Puissance De Lune – SP $7 59kg BR 2 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 3rd Memsie Stakes G1 1400 Caulfield

1st – Foreteller – SP $15 59kg BR 9 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 8th Warwick Stakes G2 1400m W Farm

2nd – Puissance De Lune – SP $2.35 fav 59 kg BR 5 – 2nd up, 3 weeks Lawrence Stakes G2 1400m Caulfield

3rd – Moudre – SP $91 59kg BR 6 – 1st up (2x Trials), 39 weeks 8th Queen Elizabeth G3 2600m Flemington

Southern Speed – SP $4.20 57kg BR 6 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st Penny Edition Listed 1400m Morphettville

Littorio – SP $41 59kg BR 14 – 1st up, 71 weeks 9th Sydney Cup G1 3200m Randwick

Major Players 

2. Happy Trails: His best figures are at 2000m and he although his first up record isn’t that great, this is a better trip for him fresh.

3. Black Heart Bart: Simply better than his rivals over 1400m first up and his residual fitness from Brisbane obviously played a part in the victory. He has the right profile to win here coming through the Memsie and proved he could handle a soft track at the highest level after placing behind English in the All Aged Stakes. Weir has taken him to a new level and he now needs to hold that level out to the mile. At $2.25 in early markets I ‘d rather lay him.

4. Our Ivanhowe: Can produce a run fresh and wary about this galloper given he’s won at G1 level over 2000m and 2400 already. As a stallion his CV would be enhanced with a win here over a mile. His feet are his issue and sting out will certainly help him. He’s needs to find a few lengths to win this but all reports from the track are positive.

5. Entirely Platinum: Not huge speed on paper here and Dwayne Dunn has taken this ride over He Or She which must be noted. He Or She beat him by almost 4 lengths this track and trip last time. He profiles well for the race coming through the Memsie and ran third in this race last year off a similar first up run. A mile is as far as he wants at this level and he races well with the sting out.

7. He Or She: His personal best figures are at this course and distance. His second up record reads well and he’s honest. I thought he ran well in the Memsie Stakes missing the boat after Charmed Harmony and Tashbeeh strung the field right out. He ran home in the second fastest last 400 and 200m which means he’s in good form. If the track stays in the Good 4 to Slow 5 range he’s the value bet in the race.

8. Alpine Eagle: Had hidden merit in his last start sixth with good sectionals between the 800-400m mark. He’ll have come on enormous from that effort and my only reservation with him is that he’s on a Caulfield Cup path. This is the race we get to find out if he’s genuinely come back with the potential he once possessed.

9. Tarzino: When I looked at this race a few weeks ago, he was the runner I thought would be best suited. His first up run in the Memsie wasn’t quite enough to suggest that a mile second up and the stable are dead keen to target the Caulfield Cup with him. I personally see more potential in him as a 1600-2000m horse.

10. Palentino: Is unbeaten third up and ran his PB this track and trip last preparation. His data suggest he blew out his final 200m in the Memsie stakes. If he’s going to make it at G1 level as a 1400-1600m horse it’s D-Day on Saturday. Deserves to be second favourite to Black Heart Bart and if the favourites vulnerable at all he can win.

12. Rising Romance: Mrs Consistent but always seems to find one better. Has the right profile to win and Damien Lane can be positive again with minimal speed in the race off a soft draw.

13. Sofia Rosa: Was fractious in the barriers pre-race and had an off day first up in the Memsie after some good market support. Betting will tell the story and she looks a Flemington horse. Perhaps better suited at 2000m in the Turnbull stakes.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) He Or She – 2 units at $17 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (PLACE) He Or She – 3 units at $4 or more

R8 Let’s Elope Stakes 1400m Group 2 4YO + Mares SWP

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 4 of the past 5 winners have been 2nd up
  • 3 of the past 5 winners were 2 weeks between runs
  • 2 of the past 5 winners have been the SP favourite
  • 5 of the past 5 winners carried 56.5kg or more

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Amicus – BR 13 58KG SP $15 – 2nd up, 3 weeks, 1st Toy Show Quality Group 3 1300m Randwick

Commanding Jewel – BR 7 59KG SP $2.60 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 3rd Cockram Stakes Group 3 1200m Caulfield

Commanding Jewel – BR 3 57KG SP $9 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 6th Carlyon Stakes Listed 1000m Moonee Valley

 

Zurella – BR 9 56.5KG SP $2.10 – 1st up, 25 weeks, 2nd NZ Oaks Group 1 2400m Trentham

Pinker Pinker – BR 5 56.5KG SP $6.50 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 5th Cockram Stakes Group 3 1200m Caulfield

Major Players 

1. Badawiya: She was brilliant winning first up against her own age and sex last time and we can only imagine she has strengthened further off the spell. She’s been given a solid 1000m trial this time to prep her for her first up run and I expect her to show her class and fight this finish out.

2. Don’t Doubt Mamma: She ran right through the line first up in the race that was taken out by Ocean Embers. She’s previously won at this course and distance and her good runs are around classy types such as Jameka, Stay With Me and beaten 2L into second by Badawiya.  She profiles well second up for this race. She’ll be back buried on the fence but jockey Dwayne Dunn will be doing everything possible to get her off the fence early.

7. All Cerise: The jockey stated he was not happy with her action last start but the stable has persisted and have added the blinkers on Saturday. Should she recapture her form from the Aspiration Stakes then she would be right in this finish.

11. Manageress: She’s resuming off a 300+ day lay- off and has not been seen in a public trial. Watch any money for her because she was putting together a really handy record prior to injury.

13. Miss Softhands: A tough mare to catch on her day but she had plenty to off at the conclusion of the Cockram. She hung in terribly for jockey Steven King and has drawn the extreme outside on Saturday. That could actually play into her hands should there be a run on bias. She can get to massive odds on the day.

15. French Emotion: A lightly raced 5yo mare, French Emotion has been brought along slowly by the Waller camp. She saved her best racing for big tracks and the expansive nature of Flemington should suit her down to the ground. She’s not a big body so second up see her near her peak.

 

Betting Strategy

Badawiya looks all class and if she has strengthened up over the break I think she will be too good for this field. I’ll also be speaking two roughies which the market might under value.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Badawiya – 4 units @ $6 or more.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Manageress – 1 unit at $20 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Miss Softhands – 1 unit at $20 or more

 

 

 

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

Related Articles

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]