The Betfair Insider: Flemington, November 5th 2016 – Stakes Day

Posted: November 4, 2016

Current Track Rating: Good 3

Rail: True

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 4th – Max 27, Mostly Sunny

Saturday 5th – Max 17, Partly Cloudy

 

R1 Maribyrnong Plate G3 1000m

Speed Map

NB: Speed map based on raced brigade.

Race Profile

  • 2 of past 5 winners were first starters
  • 3 of past 5 winners had barrier 5 or closer
  • 3 of past 3 winners who had run previously ran within 3 weeks

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Power Trip – SP $9 57kg BR 5 – First Starter

Prompt Return – SP $19 57kg BR 4 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st Bendigo Mdn 15k 900m Benidgo

Boomwa – SP $31 56.5kg BR 7 – First Starter

Direct Charge – SP $18 56.5kg BR 3 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 4th Inglis 2yo 255k 1000m M Valley

Real Stolle – SP $17 54.5kg BR 13 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 5th Debutants 100k 1000m Caulfield

Major Players 

1. Azazel: Won his only start in the Inglis Banner at Moonee Valley where he sat off the pace but showed a nice turn of foot to win. Time was fair for the track conditions of the day and can be in the finish again.

2. Wait for No One: Led and hung off the fence a little at his only start but held on after tiring late. His 800-600m split was 10.28 and so he was probably entitled to knock up. Comes up close to equal favourite and has the pace to lead.

6. Destiny’s Own: Beaten 1L by Azazel in a Cranbourne jump out. Comes up at $30+ which looks to underestimate his chances.

13.Tarima: Heavily backed at his first start finishing second over 900m at Bendigo. Raced somewhat greenly but hit the line really strongly. I’m happy to take the near double figure odds with the confidence he’ll improve significantly from that performance.

15. Resin: Very good trial win at Wyong and the stable obviously has a strong opinion to bring him to Melbourne for his first start. That must be respected.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Tarima – 1 unit at $8 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Resin – 2 units at $6 or more

R3 Queen Elizabeth Stakes G3 2600m

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 1 of past 5 winners have been SP Favourites
  • 3 of past 5 winners have carried 56.5kg or less
  • 2 of past 5 winners have won at 2400m-2500 at their previous start

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Rail + 6, Soft 6

1st – Dandino – SP $3.90 58kg BR 4 – 6th up, 2.5 weeks 2nd Geelong Cup 2400m G3 Geelong

2nd – Secret Number – SP $2.70 58kg BR 5 – 2nd up, 8 weeks 1st Chester (UK) Listed 2474m Chester

3rd – Don Doremo – SP $31 54.5kg BR 3 – 6th up, 2.5 weeks 11th Geelong Cup 2400m G3 Geelong

Rail +4m, Good 3

1st – Le Roi – SP $6.5 56.5kg BR 9 – 4th up, 2 weeks 2nd MV Cup G2 2500m Moonee Valley

2nd – Prince Of Penzance – $4.6 58kg BR 3 – 6th up, 2 weeks 1st MV Cup G2 2500m Moonee Valley

3rd – Big Memory – $5.5 58kg BR 3 – 6th up, 1 week 2nd Lexus Stakes G3 2500m Flemington

Rail +3m, Good 4

1st – Precedence – SP $6.5 58kg BR 8 – 4th up, 2 weeks 1st MV Cup G2 2500m Moonee Valley

2nd – Sertorius – SP $4.2 fav 55.5kg BR 5 – 5th up, 2 weeks 1st Bendigo Cup Listed 2400m Bendigo

3rd – Let’s Make Adeal – SP $8 55.5kg BR 2 – 6th up, 1 week 5th Lexus Stakes G3 2500m Flemington

Puissance De Lune – SP $3 fav 54.5kg BR 7 – 5th up, 3 weeks 1st Bendigo Cup Listed 2400m Bendigo

Ironstein – SP $20 54kg BR 9 – 7th up, 3 weeks 5th City Tatts Listed 2400m Randwick

Major Players 

1. Francis Of Assisi: A dominate winner of the Bendigo Cup. This Godolphin 7YO sustained a strong speed throughout the 2400m race and carried it on all the way too the line. We thought he looked a great chance at Bendigo and if anything he exceed our expectations. Up 3kg but is use to carrying big weights.

3. Tom Melbourne: Looked all but the winner of the Lexus before Oceanographer lunged at him over the concluding stages. He won’t quite get his own way in front with Francis Of Assisi sure to travel right with him.

9. Vengeur Masque: Great run behind Almandin two starts back and looked well suited up to 3200m had he made the Melbourne Cup field. His last start performance in the Caulfield Cup will have him primed for this and he looks the sleeper.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Francis Of Assisi – 3 units at $3 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Vengeur Masque – 2 units at $3 or more

R4 Hilton Stakes Listed 1400m

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 3 of past 5 winners have been off 3-week break
  • 2 of past 5 winners had won their maiden at their previous start
  • 1 of past 5 winners were SP favourites

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Palentino – SP $7.50 54.5kg BR 8 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 1st Stawell MDN 20k 1300m Stawell

Lord Aspen – SP $3.30 fav 56.5kg BR 2 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st BM70 35k 1300m Morphettville

Eximius – SP $26 57kg BR 5 – 4th up, (4wk freshen) 6th Blue Sapphire 250k 1200m Caulfield

Eximius – SP $26 57kg BR 5 – 4th up, (4wk freshen) 6th Blue Sapphire 250k 1200m Caulfield

Instinction – SP $31 54kg BR 1 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st Kyneton Mdn 12k 1479m Kyneton

Major Players 

4. Niccolance: Lightly raced and on an upward spiral after winning his maiden and BM70 in his last two. He beat Comin’ Through last start who subsequently won the Carbine Club on Saturday. First the profile of an up and comer and looks hard to beat I’ve mapped him to get across for the in-form Blake Shinn.

5. Valliano: Hard horse to map, last time he drew wide he went back but his best runs in line with last start have been when he has been on pace. He was good to the line behind Peacock in the Gothic stakes. Not the worst at a big price despite what may be a tough run in transit. Listen out for change of tactics (stable notorious for going back). If they ‘go back’ I would put a line through.

6. Inside Agent: Will be back on the fence here similar to where he was in the Gothic stakes when he made up ground without much room. He’s very green and every start has had merit. If the track is playing fairly he shouldn’t be double figure odds.

9. Verstappen: Impressive winner of two of his three starts and pulled up lame in his only defeat at listed level. Another one that fits the profile of being an up and comer. The map looks a potential issue depending on how the track plays.

12. Man From Uncle: Another drawn wide who might find it a little difficult in transit. His second to Invincibella when he stuck to the wrong part of the track was full of merit, but still needs to find a couple of lengths to compete with these.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Verstappen – 2 units at $6 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Valliano – 1 unit at $15 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Inside Agent – 2 units at $13 or more

R6 Matriarch Stakes G2 2000m

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 1 of past 5 winners have been on a < 7- day back up
  • 4 of past 5 winners have been 5th up or deeper into their preparation
  • 3 of past 5 winners have carried 56.5kg or less

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Lucia Valentina – SP $3.30 fav 59.5kg BR 14 – 5th up, 3 wks 9th Caulf Cup G1 2400m Caulfield

Suavito – SP $7.00 57.5kg BR 7 – 6th up, 2 weeks 1st Tesio Stakes G3 1600m Moonee Valley

Girl Gone Rockin’ –SP $17 54kg BR 10 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 2nd BM70 40k 1800m Kensington

Midnight Martini – SP $8 56.5kg BR 7 – 6th up, 2 weeks 2nd HCP 102k 2040m M Valley

Vintedge – SP $11 55kg BR 16 – 5th up, 4 days 2nd Mares Hcp 101k 1700m Flemington

Major Players 

1. Real Love: Ran her career peak three starts ago in a race that was run to suit. Good in the Caulfield Cup but quite plain last week in the Lexus. No favours off the maps but weight scale a strong positive. It looks an afterthought and if she was trained by anyone other than Darren Weir you would put the pen straight through her.

2. Zanbagh: Backs up from the Myer Classic seven days ago. With a blanket finish in that race (2.35 lengths) covering the first 11 across the line leaves me questioning that as a form race for this. Happy to risk at the early price but not the worst.

8. Denmagic: Also out of the Myer Classic however the Jockey erred in that race by switching off the back of the winner to be held up by the fading Euro Angel. She was very strong to the line and despite being to the 2000m for the first time she looks very good value with James McDonald replacing Tommy Berry.

10. Lady Le Fay: Switched back to the inside on Cox Plate day and was given no chance with the rail ‘off’. She was under pressure prior to the turn but battled on ok in 25.04 for her last 400m. She can bounce back and fits the profile of a winner.

15. Sort After: Backing up from Cup Day when she won impressively. The conditions of the race are against her as she should be getting far more weight relief. Should be able to get across from the wide barrier without too much trouble but looks out of her depth here.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Denmagic – 5 units at $4 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Lady Le Fay – 2 units at $5+ or more

R7 Mackinnon Stakes G1 2000m

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 4 of past 5 winners have come through the G1 Cox Plate
  • 0 of past 5 winners have been SP Favourites
  • 4 of past 5 winners have drawn barrier 8 or closer
  • 0 of past 5 winners have been Mares

 

NB: Race moved back one week.

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Rail True, Soft 5

1st – Gailo Chop – SP $21 59kg BR 8 – 3rd up, 7 days 8th Cox Plate G1 2040m Moonee Valley

2nd – Rising Romance – SP $16 57kg BR 11 – 5th up, 2 weeks 13th Caulfield Cup G1 2400m

3rd – Contributer – SP $9 59kg BR 6 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 1st David Jones Cup G3 2000m Caulfield

Rail True, Good 3

1st – Happy Trails – SP $7 59kg BR 12 – 6th up, 1 week 6th Cox Plate G1 2040m Moonee Valley

2nd – He’s Your Man – SP $6 59kg BR 5 – Freshened 4 weeks 1st Epsom G1 1600m Randwick

3rd – Farraaj – SP $12 59kg BR 14 – Let up, 10 weeks 4th Strensall Stakes G3 1800m York

 

Rail True, Good 4

1st – Side Glance – SP $12 59kg BR 6 – 2nd up, 1 week 6th Cox Plate G1 2040m Moonee Valley

2nd – Dear Demi – SP $11 56.5kg BR 8 – 5th up, 2 weeks 3rd Caulfield Cup G1 2400m Caulfield

3rd – Moriarty – SP $17 50kg BR 9 – 5th up, 2 weeks 10th Caulfield Cup G1 2400m Caulfield

Alcopop – SP $6 59kg BR 5 – 7th up, 2 weeks 2nd Caulfield Cup G1 2400m Caulfield

Glass Harmonium – SP $7 59kg BR 2 – 5th up, 1 week 10th Cox Plate G1 2040m MV

Major Players 

2. Hauraki: After a brilliant last to first win in the Epsom (1600m), Hauraki headed to the Cox Plate but was disappointing when finishing eighth. I think the 2000m see’s him out so happy to overlooking him here on Saturday.

3. The United States: The Crystal Mile winner backed up seven days later into last weeks Cantala Stakes and was a brilliant fourth when having little luck in running. He’s on his second 7-day back up in two weeks but the extension out to 2000m is perfect. Should he handle two big efforts in 14 days he’ll be mighty hard to beat.

4. Happy Clapper: He tried hard in the Cox Plate when finishing well into for sixth behind Winx. He looks perfectly suited getting out to 2000m at this stage of his career and handles a firm track well. Drawn well in 13 as he is a horse who likes racing room and to my eye didn’t handle Moonee Valley. Improver.

5. Vadamos: He went way too hard in the Cox Plate, 15 lengths faster than benchmark so it’s easy to forgive that run. His best European form is good enough and is a winner at 2000m and beyond.

7. Scottish: Brave in the Caulfield Cup Scottish worked to the lead and only weakened over the concluding stages when the 2400m started to take its toll.  The majority of his overseas form was over 2000m so this looks to suit him much better than the Caulfield Cup but I’m not convinced he’s suited at Weight-For-Age conditions.

10. Vanbrugh: Ran to a very high rating in the Coongy last start and Tom Melbourne carried that for to run well in the Lexus. He’s kept fresh for this and races well at Flemington. Knockout.

12. Good Standing: One of two 3YO’s taking on the older horses, Good Standing was a last start winner in the Group 3 Caulfield Classic. Despite the 6kg weight drop I think he was gifted the Caulfield Classic so I’d be happy to see him go around with out me here.   

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Vadamos – 3 units

Back on Betfair BACK  (WIN) Happy Clapper – 2 units

R8 Darley Classic G1 1200m

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 1 of past 6 winners SP Favourites (Black Caviar 2010, ‘11)
  • 4 of past 5 winners have used G1 or G2 Manikato 1200m as lead up run
  • 3 of past 6 winners Colts or Geldings, Black Caviar only Mare (2010 &2011)
  • 2 of past 5 winners have been 4th up

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Rail + 6m

1st – Delectation – SP $14 58.5kg BR 8 – 4th up, 7 days 4th Flemington Stakes G2 1200m Flemington

2nd – Chautauqua – SP $1.90 58.5kg BR 3 – 4th up, 2 weeks 1st Manikato Stakes G1 1200m Moonee Valley

3rd – Terravista – SP 9.50 58.5 BR 1 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 7th Manikato Stakes 1200m G1 Moonee Valley

Rail +4m, Good 3

1st – Terravista – SP $10 58.5kg BR 6 – 4th up, 2 weeks 5th Manikato Stakes G1 1200m Moonee Valley

2nd – Chautauqua – SP $2.45 fav 58.5kg BR 3 – 3rd up, Freshened 5 weeks Gilgai G2 1200m Flemington

3rd – Lankan Rupee SP $5 58.5kg BR 11 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st Manikato Stakes G1 1200m Moonee Valley

 

Rail +3, Good 4

1st – Buffering – SP $11 58.5kg BR 1 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st Manikato Stakes G1 1200m Moonee Valley

2nd – Shamexpress – SP $18 58.5kg BR 7 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 9th Manikato Stakes G1 1200m Moonee Valley

3rd – Moment Of Change – SP $9 58.5kg BR 4 – 2nd up,  2 weeks 4th Manikato Stakes G1 1200m M Valley

Mental – SP $7 58.5kg BR 10 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 2nd Manikato Stakes G1 1200m Moonee Valley

Black Caviar – SP $1.05 fav 56.5kg BR 4 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st Schweppes G2 1200m Moonee Valley

Major Players 

1. Lankan Rupee: A great return in the Caulfield Sprint when unfancied in the market off a 371 day spell. He finished third when poorly weighted under the handicap conditions last start and excels up the Flemington straight. He looks back to within a few lengths of his best and that gives him a great chance on Saturday.

3. The Quarterback: We said he had come back a different horse this time in and he backed that up with a brilliant third in the Manikato Stakes. He found trouble around the bend and closed of hard when only beaten 1.3L at Group 1 level to Rebel Dane. His prior run when winning the Group 2 Gilgai was great but he’s a runner that wants a moderately run race compared to others.

5. Fell Swoop: Second to Rebel Dane in the G1 Manikato. Surprisingly this will be his first go up the Flemington straight and while respecting him I don’t see any ‘edge’ in backing him at around the $6.00 quote.

6. Our Boy Malachi: Winner of the Caulfield Sprint, Our Boy Malachi is third up and also gets his first look at the straight which I think will suit him and his dynamic racing style. Up to Group 1 level where he has failed twice before is an issue but if he can find the right lane he can be in the finish.

7. Malaguerra: Ran well behind Star Turn in the G2 Schillachi Stakes and races best four weeks between runs. He won three of five starts at Flemington but never raced up the straight. I’m confident he’ll handle it and looks hardest to beat if the outside fence is favourable.

10. Spieth: An exciting 4YO coming through the grades in Sydney. He unleashed a dynamic sprint to take out the City Tatts Lightning at Randwick last start. He’ll need to carrying an additional 4.5kg on Saturday but will get a good run in behind the speed. He’s two dimensional unlike The Quarterback as he can sprint off a fast or soft tempo. Looks ready to announce himself at G1 level.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Malaguerra – 2 units at $8 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Spieth – 2 units at $9 or more

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

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