The Betfair Insider: Doomben, Saturday 17th December 2016 – Lough Neagh Stakes

Posted: December 15, 2016

Current Track Rating: Good 4

Rail: True

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 16th – Max 30, possible morning shower. 30% chance of rain (0-0.4mm)

Saturday 17th – Max 32, mostly sunny. 20% chance of rain (0mm)

 

R7 Lough Neagh Stakes 1350m LR Handicap

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 0 of past 5 winners have been 1st up
  • 3 of past 5 winners have come via the George Moore Stakes
  • 5 of past 5 winner have SP’d between $4 and $5
  • 2 of past 5 winners carried 58.5kg or more

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Fontelina 58.5kg SP $4.80 – 4th up, 2 weeks 3rd G Moore Stakes G3 1200m Doomben

Big Money 59.5kg SP $4.80 – 4th up, 2 weeks 1st G Moore Stakes G3 1200m Doomben

Love Rocks 54kg SP $5 – 9th up, 2 weeks 1st Class 6 1200m Doomben

My Destiny 53kg SP $5 – 5th up, 3 weeks 1st BM85 1300m Rosehill

1st – Dunaden 6 yo Horse – SP $8.50 fav 54.5kg BR 13 – 6th up, 2 weeks 1st Geelong Cup G3 2400m Geelong

2nd – Red Cadeaux – SP $31 53.5kg BR 15 – 9th up, 7 week freshen 3rd Irish St Leger G1 2800m Curragh

3rd – Lucas Cranach – SP $13 53.5kg BR 11 – 6th up, 2 weeks 5th Caulfield Cup G1 2400m Caulfield

Major Players 

3. Miss Cover Girl: Raced on the inside section of the track in the George Moore Stakes which was inferior going on the day. She finished the race off nicely into third position and will enjoy the step up to 1350m on Saturday. She’s a Group 1 winner well in for this race and will be a major player.

4. Most Important: The market identified this galloper to receive the ‘run of the race’ in the George Moore Stakes and he backed up that confidence with an impressive 2.8L win in the George Moore Stakes. He’s in a purple patch of form but with no upside heading into Saturday. Hard to beat but did have everything go his way last time.

7. Too Good To Refuse: Was the SP favourite heading into the George Moore Stakes but was completely disadvantaged by the conditions on the day. Despite factors against him he managed to work to the widest part of the track and record the fastest closing sectionals in the race to back up his scintillating first and second up runs this time in. The step out to 1350m is ideal and an inside draw shouldn’t be such a disadvantage this week.

9. Lucky Tom: He put in a strong showing in his final start before a spelling when running good time in a 1350m Open Handicap at Doomben. He’s first up on Saturday which will be a disadvantage but is one to keep in mind should the track advantage on speed runners.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Too Good To Refuse – 8 units at $2.50 or more

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

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