The Betfair Insider: Darwin, Wednesday July 13th 2016 – Bridge Toyota Cup

Posted: July 12, 2016

Track: Sand

Rail: +6m

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Tuesday 12th – Max 30°C. 60% chance of rain 0-4mm in the evening.

Wednesday 13th – Max 27°C. 60% chance of rain 2-10mm most likely in the morning.

 

R6 Bridge Toyota Cup

Speed Map

Track Notes

The three main chances here are also the likely speed in the race. Our Valdivia and King Kev should control the tempo up front with Flex getting the drop on those two.

Race Profile

  • 5 of past 5 winners have had a SP of $6 or less
  • 4 of past 5 winners have been 3rd up
  • 4 of past 5 winners have carried 58.5kg or more
  • 4 of past 5 winners have used 1200-1300m race as their lead up

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Saturday Sorcerer – BR 9 58.5kg SP $6.00 – 4th up, 2 weeks 4th HCP 19k 1300m Darwin

Bel Sir – BR 2 57.5kg SP $3.40 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 2nd SC 24k 1600m Darwin

Spartan Eagle – BR 10 59kg SP $4.00 – 3rd up 2 weeks 1st 0-76 20k 1300m Darwin

Sheahan – BR 8 59kg SP $2.30 FAV – 3rd up, 2 weeks 8th 0-76 19k 1200m Darwin

General Mazeratti – BR7 59.5kg SP $6.50 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 5th 0-76 18k 1200m Darwin 

Major Players 

1. Statue Of Warriors: Has relished the dirt surface since coming to the top end. Was only just fair in an on paced dominated race first up and will no doubt come on from that run. This is the toughest race it has been in and has payed the price with the handicapper for winning weaker races in non-carnival time. Has the ability to win but prefer others.

2. Our Valdivia: Went into the Alice Springs carnival with big expectation on the back of some very good Victorian form but didn’t go a yard on the dirt track. Having more time to acclimatise to the Northern Territory it showed signs of improvement fresh with a fair fifth after sitting four wide no cover. Last start it displayed its true ability going straight to the front and running a handy field ragged winning by over six lengths. Although the profile favours horses rising in distance there is no reason to say that he can’t lead all the way here again.

3. Bel Sir: Tragedy beaten in this race last year and won the 2014 edition. Was coming into last year’s race off two very convincing victories on this track. This year it has only managed a couple of well beaten fifth placings. Although it is yet to miss a place at this track and trip he needs to jump out of the ground here to win this. Is ready to peak but possibly not going well enough to win.

5. King Kev: Trainer David Bates has really turned King Kev around this preparation winning two from three, the latest being close to a nine length victory over this distance albeit weaker grade. Although rising in grade, he looks set to get a good run on the speed and expect jockey Brendon Davis to have him looking the winner at some stage of the race.

6. More Than Frank: Was beaten last start when a warm fav at $2.60, but to his defence the race was not run to suit his get back pattern. He will get a soft run off the speed on the fence but is most likely to be giving the main dangers too big of a start. Paul Denton opting to ride Our Valdivia doesn’t bode well for More Than Frank’s chances.

7. Flex: The interesting runner in the race transferring from the Lloyd William’s team to the astute Stephen Brown yard. Is dropping back from a tough second over 2400m to 1600m in the space of four weeks. I don’t think it will lead here but do expect it to get the perfect run behind the likely speed of King Kev and Our Valdivia. The question is will it be fresh enough to get past those two gallopers over a mile? I am not so sure. I think it will be best horse out of the race going forward but it is a big risk backing a horse well in the market, so far against the profile of the race.

 

Betting Strategy

I find it hard to split both Our Valdivia and King Kev who are racing in such good form. Both are from unfashionable stables to the betting public which should equate to value.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Our Valdivia for 4 units

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) King Kev for 4 units

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

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