The Betfair Insider: Darwin, Saturday July 9th 2016 – Chief Ministers Cup

Posted: July 7, 2016 at 4:06 pm

Track: Sand

Rail: True

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 8th – Max 32°C. Sunny.

Saturday 9th – Max 30°C. Sunny.

 

R7 Chief Ministers Cup 1600m

Speed Map

Track Notes

Expecting there to be very solid tempo here with Big Man rolling along in front and it would be no surprise if he got out lead by 4 or 5 lengths here. With Big Man running them along it will spread this field right out and hopefully allow a position for Lightinthenite to slot in.

Race Profile

  • 8 of these 12 runners are coming through the ROANT Hcp 1300m

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Lightinthenite – BR 7 60kg SP $3.00 – 1st up, 7 months 9th Dunkeld Cup Dunkeld 1800m

Smarty Mac – BR 4 54kg SP 8.00 – 4th up, 3 weeks 5th BM78 30k Geelong 1300m

Spartan Eagle – BR 3 54kg SP 4.00 fav – 12th up, 2 weeks 1st 0-76 20k Darwin 1600m

Hawks Bay – BR 4 63.5kg SP $3.60 fav – 8th up, 2 weeks 1st HCP 17k Darwin 1300m 

Montego Bay – BR 1 54kg SP $6.50 –  4th up, 4 weeks 2nd BM68+ 32k Morphettville 1200m

Major Players 

1. Lightinthenite: Very easy winner of this race in track record time last year with 61kg. Has had the benefit of two trials the latest beating Finke in fast time over 1200m so fitness is not going to be an issue. The concern is that he has to lump 64kg to win this year’s edition. Hawks Bay carried a similar weight to victory in 2012 and I feel Lightinthenite is certainly on par with that galloper. Before the barrier draw he looked a good thing now after drawing 11 there is some doubt. If he can get luck early then it is clearly the horse they all have to beat.

3. Montalto: Has thrived since coming to the NT which culminated in a very strong Alice Springs Cup victory last prep. Its fresh run over the 1300m lead up to this was outstanding when flashing to the line late. Its record suggests that it only improves with a run and stepping to the mile is a huge plus. The mare will most likely settle back on the fence and whilst there will be more than enough top end speed for her to finish off she will still need luck at some stage in the run home. Expect her to be right in the finish here.

4. Big Man: Was slightly disappointing last start when fresh over the 1300m getting run down in the last 100m. Just feel that he raced a touch dour and will be much better suited up to the mile. It has the early speed to overcome Barrier 12 and expect it to get out and roll along like its Alice Springs victories. It may not have the same class as a few of these but it will be in front around the turn which is a huge advantage around this track. Can win.

7. Lago Girl: Was the fittest horse in the race and only just won last start when having every possible chance. Is drawn to get the perfect run here again but meets majority of these worse off at the weights and really think it will struggle to run the mile. Huge risk here.

8. Canny Ballad: This is the smokey of the field in my opinion. Has had two starts for Michael Hickmott in South Australia and has run well on both occasions the most recent making ground in a leader/fence dominated day with plenty of weight. Has had the benefit of a trial on the track and whilst you would like to of seen them experience the dirt under race conditions this galloper has got some very good prior form to suggest a race like this is very winnable.

9. Orion: Thought this had every chance last start and still couldn’t get there in what may be a suspect form race. It is drawn to get a nice run but this is much tougher than last start and feel it needs to improve just a bit too much here.

10. Royal Request: Is racing in very good order however its chances have been ruined by the barrier draw. It will most likely have to go back to the tail from the alley and add to that a negative jockey change I think others make more appeal.

 

Betting Strategy

Expecting Big Man to improve especially if allowed to stride freely giving them something to catch.

It may not be as easy as last year but I still think Lightinthenite will be winning this.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Lightinthenite for 7 units

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Big Man for 2 units

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Canny Ballad for 1 unit

 

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

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