The Betfair Insider: Darwin, Saturday July 2nd 2016 – Darwin Guineas

Posted: June 30, 2016

Current Track Rating: Good

Rail: True

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 1st – Max 32°C. Sunny.

Saturday 2nd – Max 31°C. Sunny.

 

R9 Darwin Guineas 1600m

Speed Map

Track Notes

The Guineas is always run at a frantic tempo and this year looks no different. They are basically turning from the start so barriers and quick beginning are crucial. Expect Heart Of Red to fly the lids, cross the field and run them along at a strong clip.

Race Profile

  • 2 of past 5 winners have been the SP Favourites
  • 4 of past 5 winners have drawn barrier 5 or closer
  • 4 of past 5 winners have used 3yo Class 4 as lead up 2 weeks’ prior

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Mavericks – BR 1 58kg SP $9.00 – 5th up, 2 weeks 3rd 3YO Class 4 15.2k Darwin 1300m

Gravitational – BR 3 58kg SP $2.30 fav – 7th up, 2 weeks 2nd 3YO Class 4 16.8k Darwin 1300m

Host Of The Party – BR 3 58kg SP $4.00 – 2nd up, 4 weeks 1st 0-62 15k Geelong Synthetic 2000m

Snitzel’s Choice – BR 5 58kg SP $3.70 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 3rd 3YO Class 4 16.8k Darwin 1300m

The Ruffian – BR 10 57kg SP $6.50 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 5th 3YO Class 4 15.3k Darwin 1300m

Major Players 

1. Abu Dhabi: Had two solid 1300m runs to prepare for this with the latest being a strong effort in the traditional lead up race two weeks ago. His last start was very good when first run on the dirt and giving away 5kg to the winner. Won in City grade over 1550m in Adelaide so the mile will pose no problem and drops back to set weights here. He was the top pick prior to the barrier draw however he will now have to do plenty of early work from Barrier 13 at this tricky start.

2. Battle Of Hastings: Form might not look that flash on paper but this son of Choisir is the value runner of the race. He missed the start and got well out of its ground at both starts on this track, but has run through the line strongly suggesting the mile will suit. With a few good gear changes, I can see him being closer in the run and if this is the case he’ll be strong through the line and is the knockout at odds.

5. Finke: Unbeaten in six starts since heading to the NT under the care of the astute Gary Clarke.  He was a class above the opposition in Alice Springs taking out the Guineas over this trip easily beating Heart Of Red who won the lead up race to this two weeks ago. There is little doubt that he has the class to win it is just a matter of his fitness levels. Coming into this off three trials (2x900m and 1x1200m) but nothing beats race day fitness. No knock on his chances as he maps well and I expect him to finish in the top three. He’s the logical favourite but with a query over his fitness looks I think he’s under the odds.

6. Heart Of Red: Surprise winner last start when got to the front and ran its rivals into the ground over the 1300m. Expect this to get out and lead again however it has had four attempts at the mile and whilst it ran well on all occasions it simply hasn’t run the trip right out. Also meets the majority of its rivals much worse off at the weights.

7. Jigalong: Is the one horse in the race where there’s no doubt about it running the trip right out after its second over 2200m at Beaumont. Even though the trainer has won two Darwin Cups before it is hard to back a horse having its first start on the dirt. Expect it to run well but think it will be much better suited to the NT Derby.

8. Newsworthy: Opted to run in the 0-64 over the mile against older horses last start as opposed to the 3yo 1300m. It was coming off a devastating win in weaker company first go this track and he ran very well over the mile finishing off strongly. The form from that race has been franked by King Kev who came out and won by almost nine lengths last week. Fitness will not be a problem and expect him to be right in the finish here especially with the soft draw.

11. Worthington: Very quiet ride saw this get along way out of its ground last start and did find traffic problems in the straight. Shayne Cahill going on is a positive jockey change however it will get back from the alley and needs to find a few lengths to be in the finish. Wouldn’t be a shock if it ran well just think there a few better hopes than it.

12. Naming Rights: The sole filly in the field. Was first up in the 1300m lead up last start when running third. Although she hugged the rails she appeared to handle the dirt surface quite well which is a massive positive. I am expecting there to be a heap of improvement fitness wise however the query is that she meets Abu Dhabi 2kgs worse off and might be just one run short. Drawn barrier 11 she will have to go back along way which makes it hard to back a horse that is going to have to come through them and require a lot of luck.

 

Betting Strategy

Abu Dhabi (wide draw) and Finke (off a trial) are the two best horses in the race however both have slight queries.

Newsworthy is the runner that looks to get every favour on the map and is coming out of a good run against older horses at the mile.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Newsworthy – 5 units at $6 or more.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Abu Dhabi – 3 units at $4 or more.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Battle Of Hastings – 1 units at $10 or more.

 

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider