The Betfair Insider: Darwin, Saturday July 23rd 2016 – Metric Mile

Posted: July 21, 2016

Track: Sand

Rail: True

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 22nd – Max 32°C. Mostly Sunny with Light Winds.

Saturday 23rd – Max 32°C. Mostly Sunny with Light Winds.

 

R7 Metric Mile 1600m

Speed Map

Track Notes

With Big Man engaged there will be a solid tempo up front which will suit last start winner Whistle Stop. A hot speed and blinkers back on was the key to its form reversal last start and it should get the similar run here. It won this race very easily last year and there is no reason why it can’t repeat here. Our Valdivia is its main danger as it is likely to sit outside the leader.

Race Profile

  • 2 of past 5 winners have been first up
  • 1 of past 5 winners have been back in distance from their previous start
  • 4 of past 5 winners have 3 weeks or more between runs
  • 0 of past 5 winners have been the SP favourite

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Whistle Stop – BR 5 55kg SP $4.80 – 4th up, 1 week 2nd 45k Handicap 1900m Darwin

Spartan Eagle – BR 2 54kg SP $12 – 5th up, 1 week 3rd 45k Handicap 1900m Darwin

Spartan Eagle – BR 3 54kg SP $4.00 – 4TH up, 10 Days 1st Bridge Toyota Cup 1600m Darwin

Sheahan – BR 2 54kg SP $2.20 – 4th up, 10 days 1st Bridge Toyota Cup 1600m Darwin

Hawks Bay – BR 9 63kg SP $16 – 4th up, 2 weeks 4th Chief Ministers Cup 1600m Darwin

Major Players 

1. Montalto: Mare who is absolutely flying this prep and looks on track to achieve the Alice Spring – Darwin Cup double. It was cracking run last start storming home from the back off a suitable hot tempo. The query today is that it rises to 59kg and I expect that it is looking for the 2000m already. She will run an honest race but next start is her grand final so is most likely to be filling the first few placings.

2. Whistle Stop: Blinkers went back on and this horse responded accordingly winning the Chief Ministers in great fashion. Won this race last year and expect that he can repeat here. Will need a little bit of luck from the alley but there is good speed which should allow Stephen Ridler to get cover and charge down the outside late.

3. Big Man: Was a revelation in Alice Springs getting out by big margins and running its rivals into the ground. Has been finding the front here but not giving its usual kick around the bend. Has the ability to win this and is expected to lead again but hard to have on its last two runs when didn’t find much in the run home.

6. Our Valdivia: Has been very good winning its past two starts including the Bridge Toyota Cup at its latest which is a strong profile for this race. The penny may have dropped on the dirt and is starting to live up to its solid Victorian form. Paul Denton should be able to sit outside the leader and give a big kick at the top of the straight and will look the winner a long way from home.

9. Abu Dhabi: The query runner but was the run of the race in the Derby when caught three wide throughout running and kept chasing eventual winner Finke all the way to the line. Has tactical speed to ensure a soft run behind the leader, but I still have huge concerns that the bar plates haven’t come off here. Has the ability to win this but couldn’t back as it is likely to be under the odds.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Whistle Stop for 5 units

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Our Valdivia for 5 units

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

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