The Betfair Insider: Darwin, Saturday July 16th 2016 – NT Derby

Posted: July 14, 2016 at 4:57 pm

Track: Sand

Rail: True

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 15th – Max 28°C. Sunny.

Saturday 16th – Max 29°C. Sunny.

 

R6 NT Derby 3YO S/W 2000m

Speed Map

Track Notes

It is hard to look past the obvious here in Finke. Sure it hasn’t run over 2000m and until they do there is that doubt but it was very strong through line in the Guineas and it does appear to have lengths on them class wise. Will find the lead easily from barrier five.

Race Profile

  • 3 of past 5 winners have ran 1st or 2nd in the Darwin Guineas in their lead up
  • 2 of past 5 winners have been SP Favourites
  • 4 of past 5 winners have been 2 weeks between runs
  • 3 of past 5 winners have carried 57.5kg or more

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Flying Tormenta – BR 3 56kg SP $8.00 – 9th up, 2 weeks 1st 20k 3YO 0-64 1600m Darwin

Royal Request – BR 9 58kg SP $5.50 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 2nd Darwin Guineas 71k 1600m Darwin

Host Of The Party – BR 4 58kg SP $1.85 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st Darwin Guineas 71k 1600m Darwin

The Third Baseman BR 11 58kg SP $61 – 6th up, 1 week 7th 19k 0-64 1600m Darwin

The Ruffian –  BR 9 57kg SP $2.10 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st Darwin Guineas 61k 1600m Darwin

Major Players 

1. Abu Dhabi: Has run two seconds in both Darwin runs, the latest in the Guineas when starting second fav at $3.60. Despite drawing wide on that occasion it got a nice enough run in transit following Finke but simply couldn’t go with it when they sprinted. It battled on well to run second although it wasn’t strong through the line making it a risk out to 2000m. It has drawn off the track again and has bar plates on which are two big negatives.

7. Finke: Kept his unbeaten record for trainer Gary Clarke intact with a dominant four length victory in the NT Guineas. Will it run the 2000m? It was first up into the mile last start so one can assume it will come on from that fitness wise and also it is important to note that it was the strongest on the line out of any horse in that race. There isn’t a heap of speed on paper so expect Davis to jump Finke to the front early and be almost impossible to run down.

8. Jigalong: Although beaten along way into fourth in the Guineas this was a nice clean out run for this race. By Tavistock he will have no worries running the 2000m which can’t be said for the majority of its rivals. It is hard to see him turning the tables here on Finke, but he is clearly the second pick in the race.

10. Worthington: Ran a very nice third in the Guineas here last time. On that occasion it had the perfect run on the leaders back however just couldn’t match it with Finke in the run home. It is hard to see it getting the same run in transit again and the run didn’t exactly suggest that he was looking for 2000m. Will beat more than its fair share home but won’t be fighting out the finish.

11. Naming Rights: Was ridden very poorly in the Guineas and given no hope. Was then backed up last week in a 0-62 1600m against older horses where it came from a long way back and hit the line very nicely running an unlucky third. Again drawn poorly it will have to go back but if the Dean Holland can get any luck in the run I expect this filly to be finishing off and is a genuine rough chance.

12. The Wild Side: Make no mistake about it this filly is not in the same class as the majority of these runners but she doesn’t have to be. She is a tough one pacer who will whack away all day and Raymond Vigar is the perfect jockey for her. Can’t quite see her winning but is a good place hope at odds.

 

Betting Strategy

If you are looking for a couple of roughies to fill the place, then Naming Rights and The Wild Side could be the value. Finke looks set to take its winning run to eight straight here.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Finke – 10 units at $1.70

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

 

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