The Betfair Insider: Caulfield, Wednesday 12th October 2016 – Blue Sapphire Stakes

Posted: October 11, 2016

Current Track Rating: Good 3

Rail: True

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 11th – 70% chance of rain 0-1mm

Saturday 12th – 15°C – 90% chance of rain 1-5mm

 

R6 Blue Sapphire Stakes 1200m Group 3 Set Weights 3YO

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 3 of past 4 winners have been SP favourites (2013 favourite 2nd Safeguard)
  • 4 of past 4 winners are last start winners
  • 4 of past 4 winners have started in barrier 5 or closer
  • 2 of past 4 winners fillies (both SP Favourites)

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Rail True, Good 3

1st – Keen Array – SP $2.30 fav 57kg BR3 – 4th up, 2 weeks 1st 3Y SWP 1200m Caulfield

2nd – Mogador – SP $4.40 57kg BR 6 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 1st BM75 1000m Warwick Farm

3rd– Haptic – SP $5 57kg BR 4 – 3rd up, 4 weeks 2nd Heritage Stakes LR 1100m Randwick

Rail True, Good 3

1st  – Eloping – SP $3.50 fav 55kg BR 2 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st Champagne Stakes G3 1200m M Valley

2nd – Sultry Feeling – SP $9.50 55kg BR 5 – 4th up, 4 weeks 5th Tea Rose G2 1400m Randwick

3rd – Husson Eagle – SP $5.5 57kg BR 3 – 2nd up, 4 weeks 1st Mdn SW 17.5k 1100m Bendigo

Rail True, Good 4

1st – Lion Of Belfort – SP $8 57kg BR 5 – 4th up, 2 weeks 1st 3YO C & G SWP 100k 1200m M Valley

2nd – Safeguard – SP $4.60 fav 57kg BR 7 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 4th Danehill Stakes G2 1200m Flemington

3rd – Diamond Oasis – SP $14 57kg BR 9 – 4th up, 3 wks 2nd Heritage Stakes Listed 1100m Randwick

Rail True, Good 4

1st – Snitzerland – SP $1.95 fav 55kg BR 4 – 3rd up, 3 wks 1st Danehill Stakes G2 1200m Flemington

2nd – Fire Thunderbolt – SP $18 57kg BR 5 – 1st up (1x Trial), 27 weeks 1st Streets Listed 1000m Flemington

3rd – Lankan Rupee – SP $5.00 57kg BR 2 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 1st 3Y- SWP 80k 1000m Caulfield

Major Players 

1. Flying Artie: The much anticipated return of Flying Artie who boasts some of the strongest formlines in the land. First up last time he defeated Star Turn by 0.2L before putting in a mammoth run in the Blue Diamond to finish 1.8L second to Extreme Choice (Moir Stakes winner (vs older horses)). He was floated up to Sydney for the Golden Slipper and also ran a gallant third to Capitalist and Yankee Rose. If he has continued on the same upward path of Extreme Choice then Flying Artie has a clear three or four length margin on this field, however history says that fitter horses tend to have a good record in this race.

4. Ken’s Dream: Third pick in early markets, Ken’s Dream has returned ratings of 98 at his past two starts at The Valley. To put it in perspective Flying Artie hit figures of 109 & 108 at his two Caulfield starts, that’s a five length margin in my form.

5. Barthelona: Undefeated now after three starts, Barthelona has a devastating final burst, which has seen him take out his last two starts. His form is rock solid with Inside Agent coming out and winning a listed race after finishing 2.3L behind him last start.

6. Derryn: Sensation first up at Caulfield over 1000m, Derryn headed up to Sydney to run a brave second in the Up & Coming to Devine Prophet. He looked outclassed or couldn’t run a strong 1400m in the Golden Rose and the drop back to Caulfield and 1200m should suit.

12. Merriest: Luckless first up at Caulfield and atoned with an unexpected Listed win in the 1200m Atlantic Jewel at Moonee Valley. She ran well again next start at The Valley but hard to get her ahead of the boys here.

 

Betting Strategy

Given Flying Artie and Extreme Choice have similar form lines and this crop of 3YO’s appear to be the strongest in years I will be heavily in the Flying Artie camp here and anything north of black figures appears value. Keen to save Barthelona who has a big fitness edge.

 

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Flying Artie – 7 units

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Barthelona – 1 unit

Back on Betfair BACK (PLACE) Barthelona – 2 units

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

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