The Betfair Insider: Caulfield, Saturday October 8th October 2016

Posted: October 6, 2016 at 6:52 pm

Current Track Rating: Good

Rail: True

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 7th – Max 24. Late shower. 60% chance of rain (0-1mm)

Saturday 8th – Max 18. Mostly sunny. 50% chance of rain (0-1mm)

 

R2 Herbert Power Hcp G2 2400m

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 2 of past 5 winners have backed up within 7 days
  • 3 of past 5 winners have been 4th up in their preparation
  • 3 of past 5 winners have SP’d less than $4.00

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Amralah – SP $3.60 58.5kg BR 8 – 4th up, 1 week 7th Turnbull Stakes G1 2000m Flemington

Big Memory – SP $6.00 53kg BR 1 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 8th JRA Cup G3 2040m M Valley

Sea Moon – SP $3.50 59.5kg BR 7 – 4th up, 1 week 2nd Bart Cummings G3 2500m Flemington

Shahwardi – SP $15 56kg BR 13 – 6th up, 8 week Freshen 3rd Kergolay G2 3000m Deauville

Shewan – SP $3.50 54.5kg BR 3 – 4th up, 2 weeks 2nd Handicap 70k 2000m Caulfield

Major Players 

1. Prince of Penzance: Taking a similar path to last year when he came into this race fourth up and did very little before taking a big step forward fifth (MV Cup) and sixth (Melbourne Cup). I’d prefer next time.

2. Howard Be Thy Name: Weighted very well compared to those below him. Battled to the line OK in the Underwood stakes but looks to be down on his 3YO Autumn/Winter season. Like his stablemate may be closer to his peak next start.

3. Big Memory: No wins since this race 2 years ago (18 starts ago) when he was going much better. Trainer suggested he didn’t handle Good 3 last start. Looks certain to be a dry track on Saturday and he can either lead or most likely take a sit.

4. Assign: Looks to still have some improvement left after finding the line well behind the stablemate Almandin (won again in the Bart Cummings last week) last start after looking beaten. Still has plenty of upside and rates clear on top.

5. Pemberley: Failed terribly in his only try at 2400m in the Mornington Cup albeit at the end of his prep. Went early and stuck on when favourite last start but this is much harder and happy to work around.

6. Dandy Gent: Interesting runner. He has beaten Assign on his merits at their only two meetings once at level weights and once with 3kg in his favour. Both times Assign has been the SP favourite. He was very good when he had to do the work chasing the speed in the race behind Almandin last Sunday. Going well and a chance at value.

7. Master Zephyr: Kept chasing Pemberley all the way to the line last start. Extra distance suits but not sure he can run past them from last.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Assign – 8 units at $2.5 or more.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Dandy Gent – 2 units at $8 or more.

R3 Thoroughbred Club Stakes G3 1200m

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 3 of past 5 winners were 3rd up
  • 3 of past 5 winners had their lead-up run in Sydney
  • 3 of past 5 winners carried 56kg or more
  • 4 of past 5 winners draw insider Barrier 7

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Serene Majesty – SP $11 55kg BR 7 – 3rd up, 4 weeks 6th Furious Stakes G3 1200m Randwick

Earthquake – SP $2.15 fav 59kg BR 4 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 3rd Tea Rose 1400m Randwick

Missy Longstocking – SP $4.20 57kg BR 7 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st BM85 Hcp 1200m 45k E Farm

Cavalry Rose – SP $8.00 56kg BR 11 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 4th Reg Allen Listed 1200m Rosehill

Platelet – SP $4.60 55kg BR 3 – 6th up, 2 weeks 2nd Champagne Stakes G3 1200m M Valley

Major Players 

1. Selenia: Surprised in the G3 Champagne at Moonee Valley when despite a tough run won at $41 in a huge personal best performance. Tough to repeat given the effort she made last start

3. My Country: Also out of the Champagne when she raced below par. Never underestimate the Snowden’s but want to see a better effort before I can back her again.

4. Conchita: Stepping up in grade and first up suggests the current prices is under the odds. Trialled well leading into this and impressed as a 2yo.

6. Prompt Response: Trainer has a poor strike rate in Melbourne of late but looks ready to produce a big effort.  Maps perfect and should get a lovely run just in behind a hot tempo.

10. In the Vanguard: Jumped off the page as the horse to beat off her two-year-old form and gets a nice run from Barrier 1 for Michael Walker. But is first up against the profile and the market has made her favourite so she’s no value in early betting.

11. Stop Making Sense: Came from last to run the winner to 0.3L in the Champagne. She is likely to get another nice run off a very hot pace.

16. Hear The Chant: Complete forgive run at Moonee Valley in the Champagne and perhaps wins with clear running. Barrier 12 is a big turn off here but could easily see her fill a placing.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Prompt Response at $6+ for 3 units

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Stop Making Sense at $7+ for 3 units

R6 Caulfield Stakes WFA 2000m 3YO+ 

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 3 of past 5 winners have been 2nd up
  • 2 of past 5 winners have SP’d $1.50 or less
  • 4 of past 5 winners have been male

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Rail True, Good 3

1st – Criterion – SP $7.50 59kg BR 7 – 2nd up, 7 weeks 6th Juddmonte G1 2092m York

2nd – Happy Trails – SP $16 59kg BR 6 – 5th up, 1 week 10th Turnbull G1 2000m Flemington

3rd – Mongolian Khan – SP $13 58kg BR 2 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 4th Underwood Stakes G1 Caulfield

Rail True, Good 3

1st – Fawkner – SP $5.50 59kg BR 4 – 2nd up, 4 weeks 2nd Makybe Diva G1 1600m Flemington

2nd – Criterion – SP $16 58kg BR 3 – 4th up, 3 weeks 2nd Hill Stakes G2 2000m Randwick

3rd – Side Glance – SP $26 59kg BR 5 – 8 week let up, 3rd Arlington Millions G1 2000m ARL (USA)

Rail True, Good 4

1st – Atlantic Jewel – SP $1.30 fav 57kg BR 5 – 4th up, 3 weeks 2nd Underwood G1 1800m Caulfield

2nd – Foreteller – SP $10 59kg BR 4 – 4th up, 2 weeks 12th Underwood G1 1800m Caulfield

3rd – Super Cool – SP $5.50 58kg BR 2 – 4th up, 1 week 9th Turnbull G1 2000m Caulfield

Ocean Park – SP $1.50 fav 58kg BR 5 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 1st Underwood G1 1800m Caulfield

Descarado – SP $13 59kg BR 8 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 9th Shannon Stakes G2 1500m Rosehill

Major Players 

1. Black Heart Bart: He’s fourth up on Saturday after a dominate win in the Underwood. He ran right through the line which is a good sign the horse is handling the rise in distance. From a ratings point of view, he’s run 111 and 109 in his last two starts (1600 & 1800m) however his peak ratings have been around the 114 mark over 1400m.

2. He Or She: He’s going great but is the clear third pick against these two flying machines. Needs handicap conditions to be a major player at elite G1 level.

3. Winx: Looks a perfect set up third up into this race, she’s jumping from 1600m (the George Main Stakes) up to 2000m which can be a concern for some horses but not for Winx. The last time she went from 1600m up to 2000m (2040m to be exact) was in the Cox Plate and we all know how that ended up. She ran 33.50 for her final 600m last start and her final 200m sectional was in 11.15. She has at least two or three lengths up her sleeve here.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Winx at $1.25+ for 20 units

R7 Thousand Guineas Group 1 3YO Fillies SW

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 2 of past 5 winners have come via the Tranquil Star (Thousand Guineas Prelude)
  • 2 of past 5 SP favourites have won ($1.45 & $1.70)
  • 5 of past 5 winners 4th up or more

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Rail True, Good 3

1st – Stay With Me – SP $8 55.5kg BR 4 – 4th up, 2 weeks 6th Tranquil Star G3 1400m Caulfield
2nd – Jameka – SP $8.50 55.5kg BR9 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 2nd Tranquil Star G3 1400m Caulfield
3rd – Badawiya – SP $5.50 55.5kg BR 10  – 6th up, 1 week 1st Edward Manifold G2 1600m Flemington

Rail True, Good 3

1st– Amicus – SP $10 55.5kg BR 9 – 4th up, 2 weeks 2nd Tranquil Star G3 1400m Caulfield

2nd – Traveston Girl – SP $15 55.5kg BR 10 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 4th Tranquil Star G3 1400m Caulfield

3rd – Sabatini – SP $19 55.5kg BR 2 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 5th Tranquil Star G3 1400m Caulfield

Rail True, Good 4

1st – Guelph – SP $1.45 fav 55.5kg BR 5 – 4th up, 10 days 1st Flight Stakes G1 1600m Randwick

2nd – May’s Dream – SP $7.50 55.5kg BR 3 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st 3YF Hcp 80k 1400m Caulfield

3rd –  Gregers – SP $10 55.5kg BR 2 – 5th up, 3 weeks 1st Tranquil Star G3 1400m Caulfield

Commanding Jewel – SP $10 55.5kg BR 6 – 5th up, 10 days 3rd Ed Manifold G2 1600m Flemington

Atlantic Jewel – SP $1.70 fav 55.5kg BR 4 – 4th up, 3 weeks 1st 3YF Hcp 70k 1400m Caulfield

Major Players 

1. Whispering Brook: Heavily backed in the Tranquil Star, she had a soft lead and was found wanting in the straight. Perhaps the stable had over-worked her in the lead up? Either way it’s hard to back her until we see a form reversal.

2. Miss Rock: She had little luck in the straight and finished on the heels of the Tranquil Star Winner Legless Veuve. The step up to 1600m looks ideal and at $12 appeals as the value runner of the Melbourne fillies. Might drift to a very attractive quote.

3. Global Glamour: She raced well without luck in her first two runs in Sydney this prep and was rewarded third up with an all the way victory in the Flight Stakes. She did it running into a solid breeze and was strong enough late to hold off the fast finishing Yankee Rose. That’s strong form for this.

4. Foxplay: Winner of the Furious & Tea Rose in Sydney, she steps up an additional 200m after bursting through a late gap at Randwick running 11.25 for her final 200m. That’s a good indication that the 1600m will suit her.

6. La Luna Rossa: She ran well in the Tranquil Star and finished off hard indicating the additional 200m here will suit. That was off a 3 week break and is sure to come on from the run. Like Missrock she’s a knockout runner.

8. Legless Veuve: A great job in the Tranquil Star sitting outside the favourite and holding off a wall of chasers. Has to be a good chance based on that win but she had everything to suit last time. $19 looks close to her right price of a soft draw.

10. Leotie: The forgotten horse of the Thousand Guineas. She’s run faultlessly at both her Caulfield starts. The step up to 1600m is the query but her closing sectionals indicate that she will run it out.

12. Harlow Gold: She’s a horse on the rise and ran good time when taking out the Open Handicap at this course and distance three weeks ago. Appeals at good odds.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Foxplay for 5 units at $2.50+

R8 Caulfield Guineas G1 1600m 3YO

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 2 of past 5 winners have come via the Stan Fox
  • 4 of past 5 winners have been 2 weeks between runs
  • 3 of past 5 winners have been the SP favourite
  • 4 of past 5 winners have won from Barrier 8 or closer

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Rail True, Good 3

1st – Press Statement – SP $2.50 56.5kg BR 14 – 4th up, 2 weeks 1st Stan Fox G1 1500m Rosehill

2nd – Lizard Island – SP $19 56.5kg BR 2 – 5th up, 2 weeks 1st Pakenham Maiden 1600m Pakenham

3rd – Ready For Victory – SP $11 56.5kg BR 4 – 4th up, 2 weeks 9th Guineas Prelude G3 1400m Caulfield

Rail True, Good 3

1st – Shooting To Win – SP $7.50 56.5kg BR 8 – 5th up, 2 weeks 1st Stan Fox G2 1500m Rosehill

2nd – Rich Enuff – SP $1.80 fav 56.5kg BR 10 – 4th up, 2 weeks 2nd Guineas Prelude G3 1400m Caulfield

3rd – Wandjina – SP $101 56.5kg BR 5 – 4th up, 1 week 7th Yellow Vintage Listed 121k 1400m Flemington

Rail True, Good 4

1st – Long John – SP $3.80 fav 56.5kg BR 1 – 4th up, 2 weeks 3rd Guineas Prelude G3 1400m Caulfield

2nd – Divine Calling –  SP $13 56.5kg BR 10 – 4th up, 2 wks 1st Stutt Stakes G2 1600m Moonee Valley

3rd – Shamus Award –  SP $21 56.5kg BR 11 – 4th up, 2 wks 2nd Stutt Stakes G2 1600m Moonee Valley

All Too Hard – SP $12 56.5kg BR 3 – 4th up, 3 weeks 4th George Main G1 1600m Randwick

Helmet – SP $2.20 fav 56.5kg BR 8 – 4th up, 2 weeks 1st Guineas Prelude G3 1400m Caulfield

Major Players 

1. Sacred Elixir – A good winner of the Guineas Prelude first up from a spell. I’d expect him to come on from that run and has drawn well in barrier seven.

2. Impending – The Stan Fox winner has a great record in this race and he was really switched off on the line two weeks ago at Rosehill. The Blinkers were applied that day and he settled beautifully. My ratings have the Stan Fox around 4L stronger than the Guineas Prelude so he looks the one to beat for mine.

4. Divine Prophet – He ran well in the Stan Fox when second to Impending but he was no match on that day beaten fair and square. Barrier 1 could cause some issues.

5. Hey Doc – Undefeated this time in and won the Stutt Stakes in impressive fashion. I think his form is the best of the Melbourne brigade and presents as good value around $11.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Impending for 5 units at $4+

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Hey Doc  for 2 units at $10+

R9 Toorak Hcp G1 1600m

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 4 of past 5 winners have come through the Rupert Clarke
  • 4 of past 5 winners have been 3rd up
  • 3 of past 5 winners have carried 58kg

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

1st – Lucky Hussler – SP $6.00 58kg BR 4 –  3rd up, 2 weeks 6th Rupert Clarke G1 1400m Caulfield

2nd – Disposition – SP $5.00 55kg BR 7 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 2nd Rupert Clarke G1 1400m Caulfield

3rd –  Stratum Star – SP $8.00 57kg BR 2 – 4th up, 2 weeks 1st Rupert Clarke G1 1400m Caulfield

Rail True, Good 3

1st – Trust In A Gust – SP $4.60 fav 56.5kg BR 11 – 5th up, 2 weeks 1st Rupert Clarke G1 1400m Caulf

2nd – Speediness – SP $19 57.5kg BR 3 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 13th Rupert Clarke G1 1400m Caulfield

3rd – Desert Jueney – SP $61 53kg BR 1 – 4th up, 2 weeks 3rd Hcp 80k 1500m Moonee Valley

Rail True, Good 4

1st – Solzhenitsyn –  SP $6 fav 58kg BR 7 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 3rd Rupert Clarke G1 1400m Caulfield

2nd – Trevieres – SP $12 54.5kg BR 8 – 9 week let up, 1st 3yo & UP HCP 126.5k 1600m Dueaville (FR)

3rd – Blackie – SP $21 54.5kg BR 5 – 9 week let up, 1st 4yo & UP HCP 80k 1500m Moonee Valley

Rail True, Good 4

1st – Solzhenitsyn – SP $5.00 52kg BR 3 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 3rd Rupert Clarke G1 1400m Caulfield

2nd – Spirit Song – SP $21 52kg BR 1 – 4th up, 2 weeks 2nd HCP 80k 1700m Caulfield

3rd – Yosei – SP $14 52.5kg BR 9 – 5th up, 1 week 8th Epsom Hcp G1 1600m Randwick

King Mufhasa – SP $9 58kg BR 11 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 2nd Windsor Park G1 1600m Hastings (NZ)

Major Players 

1. Tosen Stardom: SCR

3. Bon Aurum: One of the stars of the Spring so far. With pretty good pace looks to get a nice run again although I suspect will be further back on this occasion. Those he beat meet him significantly better at the weights. I’m happy to risk him here.

4. He’s Our Rokkii: Won again with a minimum of fuss last start in a much weaker grade. This is his hardest test to date but is on an upwards spiral since blinkers applied. Deserved favourite and hard to beat.

7. Counterattack: Stuck on well after over racing in the Rupert Clarke when favourite. Every chance to bounce back and a much better price to find out if he can.

11. Thames Court: She was stiff not to run a place in the Rupert Clarke. Can improve again and be around the placings again.

 

Betting Strategy

 

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) He’s Our Rokkii for 3 units at $4+

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Counterattack for 1 unit at $8+

R10 Schillaci Stakes G2 1100m

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 4 of past 5 winners were 1st up in their preparation
  • 1 of past 5 winners were 3yo colts
  • 4 of past 5 winners had an SP less than $5.00
  • 2 of past 5 winners were Mares (2015 & 2011)

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Alpha Miss – SP $7.50 56.5kg BR 5 – 1st up, 52 weeks 4th Tea Rose G2 1400m Randwick

Rubick – SP $4.60 53kg BR 1 – 1st up, 31 weeks 4th Blue Diamond G1 1200m Caulfield

Unpretentious – SP $4.00 58.5kg BR 1 – 1st up, 44 wks 3rd Heffernan Listed 1300m Sandown

Buffering – SP $2.60 58.5kg BR 7 – 2nd up, 1st Moir Stakes G2 1200m M Valley

Black Caviar – SP $1.07 56.5kg BR 4 – 1st up, 21 weeks 1st BTC Cup 1200m Doomben

Major Players 

1. Flamberge: Failed badly at his last two starts after transferring from Moody to Ellerton and now to Weir. Most of his best runs have been first up and expect the stable to have finally found the key to him. Although Damian Lane from Barrier 4 appeals.

4. Hucklebuck: Some surprise that he comes back to 1100m here even though he was very good first up. Goes well second up but would prefer at 1200 or 1400m.

5. Fell Swoop: Tapered off at the end of last preparation after his second to Chautuaqua in the TJ Smith. Genuine Weight-For-Age sprinter who should get a nice run off the pace.

7. Malaguerra: Flies first up and can easily be forgiven for his failure last start in the Stradbroke. Happy to have on my side in this tough race.

12. Star Turn: Ran Astern to 0.2L beating Impending, who by this stage may be a Caulfield Guineas winner. Wary that his new Grand Final will be the Coolmore stud stakes so happy to risk for now despite obvious talent which the market has factored in.

 

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Star Turn for 6 units at less than $4

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Hucklebuck for 1.5 units at less than $12

 

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

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