The Betfair Insider: Caulfield, Saturday 30th July 2016 – Bletchingly Stakes

Current Track Rating: Good 4 or Soft 5

Rail: True

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 29th – Max 16°C. Cloudy, 50% chance of showers 0-2mm.

Saturday 30th – Max 16°C. Partly Cloudy, 60% chance of showers 0-2mm.

 

R7 Bletchingly Stakes Group 3 1200m WFA

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 4 of past 5 winners have been 3 weeks or more between runs
  • 0 of past 5 winners have been more than 6 weeks between runs
  • 1 of past 5 have SP’d at double figures ($19 Thiamandi)
  • 1 of past 5 winners has drawn outside barrier 7

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Smokin’ Joey – BR 9 58.5kg $6.50 – 4th up, 6 weeks, 1st Eye Liner Stakes LR 1350m Ipswich

Thiamandi – BR 3 56kg SP $19 – 4th up, 3 weeks, 1st 3YO Filly Handicap 1100m Caulfield

Second Effort – BR 6 58.5kg SP $5.50 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 3rd Sir John Monash Stakes LR  1100m Caulfield

Ready To Rip – BR 6 58.5kg SP $5 – 2nd up, 3 weeks, 1st Vic Sprint Series Final HCP 1200m Flemington

Mid Summer Music – BR 7 56.5kg SP $1.75 – 4th up, 3 wks, 2nd Vic Sprint Final HCP 1200m Flemington

Major Players 

1. Smokin’ Joey: He won this race last year but was only six weeks between runs after taking out the Eye Liner at Ipswich. He’s failed to fire at any of his past six runs and you would imagine is racing for his career this time in.

2. The Cleaner: One of Australia’s most popular race horses returns for a new stable after a much publicised ‘fallout’ between the owner and former Trainer Mick Burles. The Cleaner was a surprise nomination for the Bletchingly so it’s safe to assume he will not be at peak fitness. He’ll have to be the first horse in the past five years to win this race off an extended break and we’re happy to watch him run given he produces his best data between 1400 to 1600m.

3. Fast N Rocking: He’s won once in his past 18 starts but the majority of those races were at Group 1 level. Given his running pattern generally everything needs to go right for him to win. He’s drawn the outside gate here which will allow him clear running but I’d need to see a run on bias before I could jump into the $4 which is available.

4. Lord Of The Sky: A tough horse to catch however he ran well in the lead up race the Sir John Monash. He prefers a bit of sting out of the track, and any further rain would only enhance his chances. That was proven when he ran second to Chautauqua in the TJ Smith on a heavy Randwick. If he runs to his best he will be in the finish but he’s impossible to back with confidence.

10. Mahuta: Returns from a 21-week spell and takes on Open Class WFA for the for the first time. He built a remarkable record nine starts for six wins in his first campaign and is a horse that kept stepping up to the mark. On numbers, he needs to have improved around three lengths to take this race out which is certainly a possibility. However, at the distance and at WFA for the first time I’d much rather be against him than with him.

11. Odyssey Moon: Has run well up the Flemington straight but is zero from three starts at Caulfield. Clearly in peak form and has the numbers on the board to be competitive.

12. Runway Star: Goes extremely well first up, three wins from five starts, and has a wonderful record at this distance, five from nine starts. She ran well in the Group 1 Sangster and appears to have furnished into a nice mare. This looks a perfect race for her and will be in the finish based on all these positive elements. She’s well found but I’d expect her to drift out to a more backable price.

 

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Mahuta to lose 10 units <$3.40

Back on Betfair BACK (E/W) Runway Star for 1 unit at $8 or more.

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

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