The Betfair Insider: Caulfield, Saturday 27th August 2016

Current Track Rating: Good 4

Rail: +6m

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 26th – Max 13°C: 90% chance of rain (2-5mm)

Saturday 27th – Max 15°C: 30% chance of rain (0-0.4mm)

 

R5 Heath Stakes SWP 4YO+ 1100m Group 3  

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 3 of past 5 winners have won 1st up
  • 4 of past 5 winners raced in G3 or Listed races at their previous start
  • 5 of past 5 winners have started from barrier 9 or closer

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

1st Bounding – BR 7 57KG SP $3 – 1st up, 39 weeks + 2 trails, 2nd Mumm Stakes 1100m Group 3 Flemington

2nd Rich Enuff – BR 1 58KG SP $3.30 – 1st up, 40 weeks + 2 trails, 7th Coolmore Stud Stakes Group 1 1200m Flemington

3rd Miss Promiscuity – BR 5 55.5KG SP $7.50 – Let up, 8 weeks, 1st Monash Stakes 1100m Group 3 Caulfield

1st Flamberge – BR 2 58KG SP $8.50 –  1st up, 21 weeks, 1st Star Kingdom Group 3 1200m Randwick

2nd Rifleman – BR 7 56KG SP $15 – 3rd up, 3 weeks, 2nd BM85 1000m Randwick

3rd Hard Stride – BR 8 57KG SP $9 – 14th up, 2 weeks, 1st Regal Roller Listed 1200m Caulfield

1st Samaready – BR 4 57KG SP $5.50 – 1st up, 54 weeks, 4th Quezette Listed 1100m Caulfield

2nd Chiaramonte – BR 12 57KG SP $9 – 2nd up, 3 weeks, 2nd 1000m BM 0-90 1100m Caulfield

3rd Anise – BR 2 54KG SP $17 – 1st up, 15 weeks, 2nd Ortensia Stakes Listed 1100m Scone

Golden Archer – BR 7 58KG SP $1.85 – 3rd up, 3 weeks, 2nd Group 3 Aurie’s Star 1200m Flemington

Atomic Force – BR 9 57.5KG SP $5.50 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 3rd Starlight Stakes Listed 1100m Rosehill

Major Players 

1. Under the Louvre: Had a BSP of $6.80 in this race last year and was blown away by Bounding. He’s ran multiple placings over the following 12 months and eventually broke through in the G1 Stradbroke Handicap. When assessing his form, I notice that he is a horse that relies on a really strong first section of the race and a track that doesn’t allow those in front to skip away. If Sunday Escape goes as hard as he at his past two starts, his $3.30 early quote is justified.

2. Shiraz: Just a fair return in the Carlyon when beaten 4.2 lengths by Heatherly. Blinkers go on for the first time which tells me they were also disappointed with his performance first up. I’d expect a better showing but hard to come into him with confidence despite a more favourable set up.

3. Santa Ana Lane: A progressive horse from the Freedman yard. He’s a lightly raced 4YO and looks dangerous with a Group 3 win at the track and a Listed placing at Randwick over The Championships. He’s unbeaten first up and Dwayne Dunn has taken the ride over Under The Louvre which is an interesting switch. Will be charging late and looks over priced in the early market at $8.

4. Redzel: An enigmatic galloper from the Snowden yard. He won first up at the Canterbury Saturday meeting 35 days ago and will find a firmer track on Saturday. That looks a positive however is drawn wide in a race with plenty of speed engaged and I can see him working hard during the race which will dull his finish.

6. Hellbent: Returned under the Weir banner at Sandown 2.5 weeks ago and although easy in betting was able to get the job done. He ran good figures and should come on for the run second up.

13. Miss Promiscuity: Placed in the race last year behind Bounding in a high rating race and races well fresh. Her record at Caulfield over 1100m is superb with three wins from six starts, never further back then third. She maps to get a soft run from barrier four and provided Damien Lane can keep her run trouble free, she looks the one to beat.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Miss Promiscuity – 2 units at $7 or more.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Santa Ana Lane – 2 units at $7 or more.

R7 Memsie Stakes WFA 3YO+ 1400m Group 1

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 5 of past 5 winners have won 1st up
  • 4 of past 5 winners raced in G1 events at their last start
  • 3 of past 5 winners have been First up between 12-16 weeks
  • 4 of past 5 winners jumped from barrier 7 or closer

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Rail +6m Soft 6

1st Boban – SP $5.50 BR 4, 59kg – 1st up (2 trials), 12 weeks 2nd Stradbroke Handicap G1 1350m Doomben

2nd Entirely Platinum – SP $9.50, BR 6, 59kg – 1st up, 22 weeks, 11th Mornington Cup Listed 2400m Mornington

3rd Stratum Star – SP $8, BR 7, 58.5kg – 2nd up, 2 weeks 7th Regal Roller Stakes Listed 1200m Caulfield

Rail +6m Good 3

1st Dissident – SP $12, 58.5kg BR 5 – 1st up (2 Trials), 14 weeks 12th Doncaster G1 1600m Randwick

2nd Sweet Idea – SP $8, 56.5kg BR 10 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 1st Missile G2 1200m Randwick

3rd Puissance De Lune – SP $8 59kg BR 1 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 6th Lawrence Stks G2 1400 Caulfield

Rail +6m Soft 5

1st Atlantic Jewel – SP $2.20 Fav, 57kg BR 7 – 1st up (No Trials), 70 weeks 1st All Aged G1 1400m Rand.

2nd Ferlax – SP $21, 58.5kg BR 2 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 7th Aurie’s Star G3 1200m Flemington

3rd Super Cool – SP $51, 59kg BR 7 – 1st up (No Trials), 42 weeks 9th Melb. Cup G1 3200m Flemington

Rail +6m Good 4

Sincero – SP $3.60, 59kg BR 4 – 1st up (2 Trials), 16 weeks 4th Doncaster G1 1600m Randwick

Rail +7m Good 3

King’s Rose – SP $7.50, 56.5kg BR 11 – 1st up (No Trials), 23 weeks 7th NZ Oaks G2 1400m Trentham

Major Players 

1. Prince of Penzance: The shock Melbourne Cup winner of 2015 was given 29 weeks off before contesting the R A Lee Stakes Group 3 (Morphettville) back in May and what a return it was. Off a slow tempo the horse was able to rattle off blistering sectionals to just miss at a BSP of $19. He’s obviously a late bloomer due to his early joint operations and colic attacks that he’s been able to overcome. Prince of Penzance contested this race back in 2015 and was only beaten 2.3L. Barrier 11 may be against him on Saturday but he’ll be flying late and perhaps the Caulfield Cup will be the race most suited to him this time in.

2. Black Heart Bart: Since transferring to the Melbourne stables of Darren Weir, Black Heart Bart has been able to take out two races including his first Group 1 the Goodwood Handicap. The start prior he placed in the Group 1 All Aged Stakes behind English and narrowly went down in the Stradbroke. Those races rated strongly and the step back to WFA actually looks a big advantage for him. He has the numbers on the board to win this race by a length or more and is drawn perfectly in five. Will SP a short favourite and is the profile horse.

3. Lord of the Sky: Did all the work in the P.B Lawrence going approx. 9.5L above average for that class & distance and to be fair was only beaten by a couple of lengths. His problem is that he races keenly and I don’t think its in his makeup to be able to relax at this distance. Oliver replacing Zahra is probably a slight positive however he’ll be relying on an on pace bias to be able to hold off the challengers on Saturday.

5. He Or She: Put his name up in lights after the Blamey Group 2 win back in March. He resumes off a 21 week break and races better fresh than most will assume. He’s got a lethal turn of foot and if Dwayne Dunn can find the back of Palentino he’s a knockout.

7. Alpine Eagle: The talented Alpine Eagle resumes after an injury plagued campaign. He was last seen when things didn’t quite go his way in the Group 3 R.A Lee at Morphettville. We hear he pulled up well from that run and resumes here from 12 weeks off plus a trial. The pedal bone injury is a hard one to come back from however I liked what I saw in the trial win over Almoonqith. The stable has changed most of the gear but added a pair of Blinkers and a lugging bit. It’s a good set up for this race and has the raw ability to win, but if the stable is serious about a Caulfield Cup tilt, I can’t back him here.

8. Mahuta: He’s put in two OK returns now including the latest 2.1 length defeat in the P.B Lawrence where he pulled up lame. There’s a possibility he’ll get a softer time up front with the possibility of connections trying to nurse Lord of the Sky a tad more as he failed to run out the distance last time. He’s third up now and is sure to be peaking which is ideal for the Weir stable. He’s a level below Tarzino & Palentino on what we’ve seen thus far.

9. Tarzino: Returns after a 21-week spell. He won the Group 1 Rosehill Guineas before not staying as $1.60 favourite in the ATC Derby. He meets older horses for the first time in his career and does it at WFA at a distance which appears on paper short of his best. However, there are two major’s factors here which work in his favour. 1) He was a ‘keen going’ horse so the drop back to 1400m should allow him to get into a solid rhythm and 2) His crop of 3YO’s (now 4YO’s) have been measuring up with the older horses with the likes of Mahuta, Snoopy and Jameka (to name a few) all fighting out finishes against older horses in the past month. He’s a dual Group 1 winner at 1600 and 2500m so a win at this level would look good for his stallion prospects.

11. Palentino: Resumed two weeks ago in the Regal Roller and was a nice enough return only beaten 3.4L when disadvantaged at the weights. He entered a bumping dual with Fast ‘n’ Rocking in the home straight so I’m considering that run a good barrier trial. Already a Group 1 winner at 1600m so like Tarzino the connections will be hungry for a win at 1400m this level. He’ll race just forward of midfield and will need the conditions to play his way (possible 3 wide) but looks the most dangerous of the 4YO’s given his natural ability to map closer to the speed.

13. Rising Romance: Only beaten 1.7L in the 2015 version of this race where taken back off a wide gate. She deserves a Group 1 after coming within a length and a half of a Group 1 on at least five occasions. With a smart rider engaged he’s got to find Mahuta’s back upon settling and if they don’t go crazy up front she’s a chance of stealing it.

14. Sofia Rosa: ATC Oaks winner that received glowing praise from Hugh Bowman despite proving a handful before, during and after the race. She has a ‘rogue’ like nature that can be a great trait in a class filly. Her first up record is 3 wins from 4 starts but her best numbers are between 1600-2000m. I think she’s a perfect horse for the Turnbull Stakes. Her trainer has indicated that the Cox Plate is her likely target and with that being the case she can cause an upset here at big odds from a soft draw.

 

Betting Strategy

An intriguing edition of the Memsie. Black Heart Bart looks very hard to beat and deserves his spot at the top of the market. I don’t see him as a value bet at the early market price so keen to make a book around him by backing the 4yo’s.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Palentino – 2.5 units at $8 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Tarzino – 1.5 units at $15 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Sofia Rosa – 1 unit at $19 or more

 

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

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