The Betfair Insider: Caulfield, Saturday 24th September 2016

Current Track Rating: Good 3

Rail: True

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 23rd – Max 18°C – 5% Chance of rain 0mm

Saturday 24th – Max 20 – 40% Chance of rain (at night) 0-2mm

 

R5 Thousand Guineas Prelude G3 1400m

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 4 of the past 5 winners have carried 57kg or less
  • 5 of the past 5 winners have been 3rd or 4th up
  • 5 of the past 5 winners have drawn barrier 9 or closer
  • 2 of the past 5 winners competed against colts in their lead up (2013 & 2012)

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Miss Gunpowder – SP $4.20 55kg BR8 – 4th up, 3 weeks 1st Class 2 1250m Morphettville

Afleet Esprit – SP $6.50 56.5kg BR1– 4th up, 2 wks 1st Cap D’Antibes Listed 1100m Flemington

Gregers – SP $6.50 56kg BR2 – 4th up, 2 weeks 5th Danehill Stakes G2 1200m Flemington

Lady Of Harrods – SP $10 57kg BR 1 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 1st McNeil Stakes G3 Caulfield

Bliss Street – SP $21 57.5kg BR9- 3rd up, 1 week 6th 3YOF 70k 1200m Moonee Valley

Major Players 

1. Whispering Brook: She was huge resuming in the Atlantic Jewel off a wide barrier and has similar circumstances against her this time. Not convinced they will be out to ‘gas’ her from barrier 12 this time but if they can’t beat her this week I can’t see them turning the tables on 1000 guineas day.

3. Samara Dancer: Returned in great fashion against the males in the Danehill and her trainer indicated she’d need the run. She needs to find cover from the wide alley but looks capable if luck falls her way.

4. La Luna Rosa: Sparks interest looking at her win in the Sires Produce at Awapuni back in April where she defeated Saracino by a length. He won the Danehill Stakes first up so it’s easy to see this filly measuring up.

11. Leotie: Will have a big fitness edge on most of her rivals presenting 4th up here. Her ratings look a little soft in comparison to the fillies coming from the Atlantic Jewel and Danehill Stakes. This is her best chance of betting them with a kinder draw, down in the weights.

12. Sebring Dream: Went back and was given a soft run in transit first up in the Atlantic Jewel Stakes. She had no luck in the final 600m and connections now would be keen to lift her rating up and find out how good she is. I expect her to settle much closer in running from barrier five and with natural improvement can sit off the speed a win at a good price.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) La Luna Rosa – 1 unit at $15 or more.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Sebring Dream – 2 units at $7 or more.

R6 Caulfield Guineas Prelude G3 1400m

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 4 of the past 5 winners have come through Danehill Stakes or Golden Rose
  • 3 of the past 5 winners have drawn barrier 6 or closer
  • 5 of the past 5 winners settled in the first half of the field.
  • 5 of the past 5 winners have been 3rd up or deeper into their preparation

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Bon Aurum – SP $9.0 56.5kg BR 12 – 6th up, 2 weeks 1st Exford Plate 120k Listed 1400m Flemington

Rich Enuff – SP $3.70 57.5kg BR 13 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st Danehill G2 1200m Flemington

Éclair Big Bang – SP $13 55kg BR 6 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 3rd Danehill G2 1200m Flemington

Epaulette – SP $2 fav 58.5kg BR 2 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st Golden Rose G1 1400m Rosehill

Helmet – SP $2.60 fav 58.5kg BR 5 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 3rd Golden Rose G1 1400m Rosehill

Major Players 

1. Sacred Elixir: Nice starting point to kick off the star 2yo colt of the Brisbane winter carnival but expect him to be dropped out to the tail and have a casual pipe-opener. Staggering to believe he’s opened up so hard in the market and don’t back him until he’s third up.

2. Saracino: Is one of two of the profile standout runners in the race. Hard not to be impressed by this runner last start in the Danehill when leading all the way to win. He wasn’t comfortable throughout various stages of the race but dug deep to win. Expect he’ll be even better around a bend and the track will suit horses up and on the speed. Maps perfectly and will take beating.

3.Seaburge – The addition of blinkers is timely but I’m worried he’ll be giving away a big start to horses more suited by 1400m and with a class edge. Wants a mile or further to my eye so keen to wait.

6. Archives: Looked primed to win the Danehill Stakes and found one better in Saracino. The Kiwi had the fitness edge on that occasion and that might still be the advantage here given his wide draw. He’s might be better around a bend and is the clear second pick in a race of few genuine winning chances.

9. Evacuation: Visually impressive winner in a BM70 at Rosehill on a heavy rated surface. His ratings were a little soft on that occasion but he’s a very professional customer. He’ll need to lift dramatically to figure in the finish here and from Barrier 15 he’ll have to work hard to find position. I expect him to be more effective at 1600m or beyond so keen to lay him second up here.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Saracino – 5 units at $5 or more

Laying on Betfair LAY (E/W) Sacred Elixir – 10 units at $10 or less

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Evacuation – 10 units at $8 or less

R7 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes G1 Handicap 1400m

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 0 of the last 5 winners have been Fillies or Mares
  • 2 of the last 5 winners were trained by Darren Weir
  • 3 of the last 5 winners have been 3rd up
  • 2 of the last 5 winners have won the Bobbie Lewis at their previous start
  • 3 of the last 5 favourites have won the race

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

1st – Stratum Star – SP $9.00 54.5kg BR 15 – 3rd up (4wk fresh), 3rd Memsie Stakes G1 1400 Caulf

2nd – Disposition – SP $4.00 fav 54kg BR 3 – 2nd up, 1st Tontonan Listed 121k 1400m Flemington

3rd – Under The Louvre – SP $5.50 56.5kg BR 5 – 3rd up, 2nd Bobbie Lewis G2 1200m Flemington

1st – Trust In A Gust – SP $6 Fav 52kg BR 9 – 4th up, 1 week 1st 80k Handicap 1400m Caulfield

2nd – Dissident – SP $6.5 58kg BR 5 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st Makybe Diva G1 1600m Flemington

3rd – Bull Point – SP $10 52kg BR 10 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 2nd Theo Marks G2 1400m Rosehill

1st – Rebel Dane – SP $ 5.50 Fav 55.5kg BR 14 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 4th Bobbie Lewis G3 1200m Flem

2nd – Fontelina – SP $18 55kg BR 4 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 9th Bobbie Lewis G3 1200m Flemington

3rd – Solzhenitsyn – SP $7.5 57.5kg BR 5 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 2nd Theo Marks G2 1400m Rosehill

Moment Of Change – SP $4.40 fav 52.5kg BR 15 – 3rd up, 3rd Tramway G3 1400m W Farm

Toorak Toff – SP $12 56.5kg BR 7 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 5th Bobbie Lewis G3 1200m Flemington

Major Players 

2. Xtravagant: Has failed badly at his only 2 Australian runs despite his obvious ability. Can’t be backed until he shows something here.

6. Counterattack: Was desperately unlucky first up in Sydney behind Mackintosh who is very talented. The market has recognised this and installed him as favourite. Looks skinny at the opening quotes and expect a small drift on raceday.

7. Voodoo Lad: Simply superb win last start after missing away and looping the field with sustained power over the last sections. Keen Array franked the form last week. Up to his eighth run this preparation but that just doesn’t seem to worry Darren Weir horses. Hard to knock but the barrier looks to provide a challenge on the map.

9. Tivaci: Comes through the Bobbie Lewis in which he was a very good second although he was in the right part of the track. Failed in the Australian Guineas last preparation but did “beat” Palentino in the C.S. Hayes via that protest. Would need to improve again and might be just below this grade despite fitting the race profile.

11. Bon Aurum: Flying this preparation. Unsuited first up but was strong to the line. Biggest win came last start when he had a nice run despite sitting wide. Needs to improve again but this looks well within his grasp given he looks to get a good smother here, has good acceleration and returns to his home track.

12. Thames Court: Draws the inside and will get a beautiful run in transit. Has a good overall record and beaten small margins by two good horses this preparation. Needs to lift to a career best but looks to have plenty of upside to her.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Bon Aurum – 5 units at $5 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Thames Court – 1 unit at $17 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (PLACE) Thames Court – 2 unit at $4 or more

R8 Underwood Stakes G1 1800m

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 2 of the last 5 winners have won the Dato Tan Chin Nam at their previous start
  • 3 of the last 5 winners have been New Zealand trained
  • 5 of the last 5 winners have been 2nd or 3rd up
  • 0 of the last 5 winners have been favourites

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

1st – Mourinho – SP $18 59kg BR 4 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 6th Dato Tan Chin Nam G2 1600m M Valley

2nd – Fawkner – SP $3.40 59kg BR 2 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st Makybe Diva Stakes G1 1600m Flemington

3rd – The Cleaner – SP $7.50 59kg BR 1 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 1st Dato Tan Chin Nam G2 1600m M Valley

1st – Foreteller – SP $6.50 59kg BR 2 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 3rd Dato Tan Chin Nam G2 1600m M Valley

2nd – Happy Trails – SP $10 59kg BR 6 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 8th Memsie Stakes G1 1400m Caulfield

3rd – Crackerjack King – SP $51 BR 5 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 8th Dato Tan Chin Nam G2 1600m M Valley

1st – It’s A Dundeel – SP $5.00 58kg BR 12 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 4th Memsie G1 1400m Caulfield

2nd – Atlantic Jewel – SP $1.60 Fav 57kg BR 7 – 3rd up, 1 week 1st Stocks Stks G2 1600m M Valley

3rd – Dear Demi – SP $71 56kg BR 6 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 7th Let’s Elope G2 1400m Flemington

Ocean Park – SP $8 58kg BR 5 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 1st Makfi Challenge G1 1400m Hastings NZ

Lion Tamer – SP $16 58kg BR 6 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 4th Makfi Challenge G1 1400m Hastings NZ

Major Players 

2.Black Heart Bart: Very good in the Makybe Diva when 2nd only to star stablemate Palentino. Jockey Oliver questioned his ability to stretch out to 1800m whilst admitting he got to the front too early. Last 600 and 400 were still very good. I’m not convinced he won’t get the 1800m but is on the short side to find out.

4.The Cleaner: Doubtful he can get back to his best at this stage but looks to get every chance on the map. A struggle to see him being able to win but will have a big influence over the race given he may get the chance to bowl along on his own.

6.Awesome Rock: Gets a nice run within a few lengths of The Cleaner. Knocked them all down to win last start in one of his biggest career performances. No luxury at the odds and happy to risk that he can repeat the performance without the helping hand he got last time.

11.Lucia Valentina: Was ridden more forward first up behind when she chased home ruling Cox Plate favourites Winx and Hartnell. Those 2 are flying and with Kris Lees having found the key to this girl in keeping her fresh I think she is the one to beat.

 

Betting Strategy 

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Lucia Valentina – 10 units at $3.8 or more

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