The Betfair Insider: Caulfield, Saturday 17th September 2016 – Naturalism Stakes

Posted: September 16, 2016 at 10:28 am

Current Track Rating: Soft 7

Rail: +9m

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 16th – Max 17°C – 20% chance of rain (0-1mm)

Saturday 17th – Max 19°C – 90% chance of rain (1-5mm)

 

R8 Naturalism Stakes (MRC Foundation Cup) 2000m Group 3 Handicap 3YO +

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 3 of past 5 winners came via the Heatherlie Handicap at Caulfield
  • 4 of past 5 winners carried 54kg
  • 4 of the 5 past winners have drawn 5 or closer
  • 4 of past 5 winners were 3rd up

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Magnapal – SP $5 54kg BR 5 – 3rd up, 3 weeks, 1st Heatherlie HCP LR 1700m Caulfield

Gris Caro – SP $16 54kg BR 11 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 7th Feehan Stakes Group 2 1600m Moonee Valley

Mr O’Ceirin – SP $7.50 56.5kg BR 15 – 2nd up, 3 weeks, 2nd Heatherlie HCP LR 1700m Caulfield

Folding Gear – SP $7.50 54kg BR 4 – 3rd up, 3 weeks, 13th Heatherlie HCP LR 1700m Caulfield

December Draw – SP $1.55 54kg BR 1 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 1st Girls Day Out 2000m Hcp 2000m Flemington

Major Players 

4. Real Love: She was 12 weeks between runs when she put in a really nice effort to run second in the Feehan Stakes at Group 2 level. She’ll improve to 2000m and she’s run well at Caulfield in the past. Barrier 10 looks OK for her and she will be running on late. The Queensland Carnival form is getting stronger each year and is a reasonable price in early markets.

6. Jameka: Was not afforded the best run in the Feehan when trapped out wide without cover. She’s a winner at Group 2 level over the 2040m against the makes in the Vase so the distance will suit her down to the ground. Expect her to push forward from a positive draw to stalk the leader pack and kick strongly off a good tempo. Looks the big danger to Tom Melbourne who looks well in at the weights.

7. Magnapal: Won this race last year and looks ready to return another good performance after sticking on quite well in the Heatherlie. At $15 on offer it looks great value for a horse that has a track / distance win and only goes up 1.5kg.

8. Set Square: Absolutely ready to peak here third up coming from another strong run, this time in the Feehan. Third up last time she ran third to Preferment and royal Descent in the Turnbull which is one of the form races of the carnivals. She has a horror draw but will motor home should that be possible on the day.

13. Tom Melbourne: A great first up run in the Heatherlie and comes here second up and is sure to strip fitter. He’s on the minimum, drawn well and has an imposing race record. The profile favours horses third up but he recorded a strong rating first up and if he’s not flattened by that run is the horse to beat.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Tom Melbourne – 4 units at $4 or more.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Jameka – 4 units at $5 or more.

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

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