The Betfair Insider: Caulfield, Saturday 15th October 2016 – Caulfield Cup

Posted: October 13, 2016

Current Track Rating: Good 3

Rail: +6m

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 14th – 20°C – 0% chance of rain

Saturday 15th – 23°C – 0% chance of rain

 

R8 Caulfield Cup G1 Handicap 2400m

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 3 of past 5 winners had start in Australian prior (2 used Turnbull Stakes & 1 Caulfield Stakes)
  • 2 of past 5 winners were International’s first up
  • 1 of past 5 winners have been the SP Favourite
  • 1 of past 5 winners has been a Mare (2011 Southern Speed – 4th Turnbull Stakes)
  • 2 of past 5 winners have been 4yo’s
  • 2 of past 2 International winners carried 58kg (2014 Admire Rakti & 2012 Dunaden)

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Rail +6m, Good 3

1st – Mongolian Khan 4yo Horse – SP $5 fav 55kg BR 6 – 4th up 1 week, 3rd Caulfield Stks G1 2000m Caulfield

2nd – Trip To Paris – SP $31 55kg BR 4 – 8 week let up, 5th Lonsdale Cup G2 3300m York

3rd – Our Ivanhowe – SP $26 56kg BR 13 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 2nd Bart Cummings G3 2520m Flemington

Rail +6m, Good 3

1st – Admire Rakti 7yo Horse – SP $11 58kg BR 7 – 1st up 24 weeks, 13th Tenno Sho G1 3200m Kyoto

2nd – Rising Romance – SP $12 56kg BR 14 – 4th up, 2 weeks 2nd Craven Plate G3 2000m Randwick

3rd – Lucia Valentina – SP $4 fav 53kg BR 10 – 4th up, 2 weeks 1st Turnbull Stakes G1 2000m Flemington

Rail +6m, Good 4

1st – Fawkner 6 yo Gelding – SP $11 55kg BR 10 – 4th up, 2 weeks 3rd Turnbull Stakes G1 2000m Flemington

2nd – Dandino – SP $11 56.5kg BR 16 – 9 weeks, 2nd USA St Ledger 382k 2700m Arlington

3rd – Dear Demi –SP $11 53kg BR 18 – 4th up, 2 weeks 8th Turnbull Stakes G1 2000m Flemington

Dunaden 7 yo Horse – SP $14 58kg BR 18 – 1st up 13 weeks, 6th King George VI G1 2400m Ascot

Southern Speed 4 yo Mare – SP $10 52.5kg BR 3 – 6th up, 2 weeks 4th Turnbull Stakes G1 2000m Flemington

Major Players 

3. Exospheric: A lightly raced, yet tough stayer for the UK. Exospheric boasts classy form lines highlighted by a fifth placing to Postponed in the Grade 1 Juddmonte International over 2080m. He was put into quarantine after that run and new trainers the Freedman brothers have been playing down their expectations on Saturday. Is there horse coming to the end of his preparation?

4. Scottish: He is at his best when he’s able to dictate back in the UK and has done the majority of his racing over 2000m. He’ll give a good sight but hard to have him ahead of the others considering his last run over 2400m was back in August 2015.

5. Sir Isaac Newton: Like Exospheric, Sir Isaac Newton is a lightly raced stayer from Europe. However, I prefer the fact the stable will train this horse and the Aiden O’Brien yard is renowned as one of the best. Once again, the majority of his racing has been around the 2000m but at his one attempt of 2400m he was only beaten 4.5L by Highland Reel. He boasts the classy Juddmonte (2080m) Grade 1 form lines and was doing his best work on the line. He’s my top pick of the Europeans and looks a great bet with even luck.

8. Sir John Hawkwood: The Metropolitan winner from a fortnight ago, Sir John Hawkwood has gone to a new career peak for the John Thompson stable. He’s an improving stayer but The Metropolitan traditionally rates well below that of the Turnbull and Caulfield Cup form so I think this will be a good springboard for him moving forward.

9. Articus: Lightly raced (9 starts, 4 wins) and appearing for the first time for new trainer Andreas Wohler. Hard to get a gauge on as he’s never raced beyond 2200m. Began his career in France before racing in Germany. Australian Bloodstock have purchased an interest in him so he must be respected based on their past history (Protectionist).

10. Tally: Racing well and appears ready to peak here list past fourth up winners. He needs to make amends for an ever widening 3.2L margin to Jameka, but did so facing the breeze for the majority of the Turnbull. Brenton Avdulla needs to produce the ride of his life from Barrier 19, the positive is that he knows Caulfield, is confident and has the ability to pull it off. I won’t be laying him.

11. Jameka: Clear top pick of the locals. She was running away from the rest of the field in the Turnbull Stakes and really held her action well through the line. Hartnell bypassing this race is an absolute godsend for her and the drop back to 52.5kg will ensure she will be in the finish. Clear top pick and looks to have gone to a new level this preparation as a 4YO mare. Not sure she has much improvement left in her but she may not need it.

12. Real Love: Racing well but was well accounted for by Jameka in the Naturalism (7L). She’s raced well over 2400m in the past and I think the Weir yard will have her primed here. Second pick of the locals and love the 5.5kg weight drop even though her last start was in a Group 3.

15. Sacred Master: Strong through the line in the Metropolitan. The race was run at a relatively slow pace so his true staying capabilities were not fully tested. He’s a real knockout for the Waller yard at a big price.

 

Betting Strategy

Jameka is well found in the market but she looks to have the locals covered based on exposed form. Of the Internationals. Sir Isaac Newton is clear top pick forgiving his last start, while Sacred Master for the Waller camp is my value selection after not getting the race run to suit in The Metropolitan.

 

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Jameka – 7 units at $4 or more.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Sir Isaac Newton – 3 units at $10 or more.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Sacred Master – 1 unit at $20 or more.

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

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