The Betfair Insider: Caulfield, Saturday 13th August 2016

Posted: August 11, 2016

Current Track Rating: Good 4

Rail: +3m

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 12th – Max 14°C. Cloudy, 10% chance of rain.

Saturday 13th – Max 15°C. 50% chance of rain, 1mm.

 

R5 Vain Stakes 1100m Group 3 3YO Colts & Geldings

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 4 of the past 5 winners have been last start winners
  • 4 of the past 5 winners SP $6.50 or less
  • 4 of the past 5 winners have drawn barriers 1-5
  • 3 of the past 5 winner have been 1st up for 16 weeks (112 days) or more

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Gold Symphony – BR 5 55KG SP $6.50 – 3rd up, 4 weeks, 2nd 2YO Handicap 1200m Flemington

Get The Nod – BR 10 55KG $12 – 1st up, 23 weeks, 1st 2YO Handicap 1000m Morphetville

Safeguard – BR 3 56.5KG SP $3.50 – 1st up, 16 weeks, 1st Kindergarten Stakes Grp 3 1100m Randwick

Psychic Mick – BR 5 55KG SP $4.60– 3rd up, 9 weeks, 1st 2YO Handicap 1000m

Sepoy – BR 5 58.5KG SP $1.26 – 1st up, 19 weeks, 1st Golden Slipper Group 1 1200m Rosehill

Major Players 

1. Valliano: He did a good job as a 2YO winning two races in town but aside from his win over Missrock there might not be much depth to those races. He’s run ‘par times’ (the average) at both wins and folded badly in the high rating Blue Diamond. Natural improvement should see him somewhere in the finish but hard to rank him ahead of a few of these.

3. Cohesion: He burnt the candle at both ends his first career win over 1000m at Caulfield before knocking up against eventual Blue Diamond winner Extreme Choice. Has been given a 30 day freshen since a poor first up showing at Moonee Valley. Needs to bounce back.

5. Russian Revolution: The lone Sydney trained galloper in this field and comes to Melbourne with exciting prospects. He won at Canterbury on debut before heading to Rosehill and putting a gap in a field that included a next start metropolitan winner Morton’s Fork. What I like most about his Rosehill win was that he was the only horse to achieve ‘above benchmark figures’ on a day that was dominated by slow times. The 49 days between runs looks almost perfect as he steps back to 1100m.

6. Artie Dee Two: Undefeated from the Weir yard. Resumes from an 8 week freshen where putting away a handy field at Moonee Valley in very good time. A dangerous looking horse with the inside barrier who will be hard to run down out in front.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Russian Revolution – 5 units at $2.25 or more

R6 Quezette Stakes 1100m Group 3 3YO Fillies

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 4 of the past 5 winners have been last start winners
  • 3 of the past 5 winners SP $5 or less
  • 3 of the past 5 winners have drawn barriers 1-5
  • 1 of the past 5 winner have been 1st up

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Petits Filous – BR 5 55KG SP $1.85 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 1st 3YO Fillies 1000m Moonee Valley

Sabatini – BR 4 55KG SP $21 – 3rd up, 1.5 weeks, 1st 3YO Fillies Maiden Bendigo

Kiss A Rose – BR 2 55KG SP $11 – 1st up, 35 weeks, 1st 2YO Maiden 1000m Caulfield

Elite Elle – BR 10 56KG SP $4 – 4th up, 7 weeks, 1st 2YO Handicap 1200m Caulfield

Satin Shoes – BR 3 58.5KG SP $5 – 1st up, 19 weeks, 9th Golden Slipper Group 1 1200m Rosehill

Major Players 

1. Concealer: Super run first up in the Blue Diamond Prelude and then not much luck since. Returns after a nice trial and could be a first up specialist. The wide draw knocks a length or so off her expected performance but not convinced she’ll run past I Am A Star based on the speed map.

2. Sword of Light: Nice return when placed second to Derryn last start and has improved second up in the past. They ran very quick overall time on that occasion and three of the past five winners of this race had a fitness edge. Barrier one is of advantage but she may need luck getting out.

4. I Am A Star: Won in good style at Flemington in very fast time before going on with it at Morphetville. Her only failure was at Caulfield and despite Barrier 16 looking average, a fast tempo could suit her with cover three deep in the running line. Her trial was impressive and if she’s being trained as a 1100-1200m horse she’s hard to beat here.

5. Hot Dipped: The wraps from Tasmania were huge heading into the VRC Sires where she failed. The drop back to 1100m looks ideal and I like her fresh. Her figures look a little soft comparing her to the Melbourne brigade.

7. Modern Wonder: Impressed on debut in Adelaide in a Stakes race running good time and best figures on the day. Sent straight to the spelling paddock, which is a good thing and returns off a solid trial. Maps to perfection and will be the BSP favourite.

11. Merriest: Started $1.70 when beaten by I Am A Star. Happy to forgive that run as she may have trained off. She’s the value runner outside the favourites but may be exposed three deep on a hot tempo.

13. Conscious: Fantastic run on debut when beaten by the promising Weatherly. Put away after that run and saved for this. Tongue Tie applied should only lead to improvement.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Modern Wonder – 1 unit at $5 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) I Am A Star – 1 unit at $6 or more

R7 P.B. Lawrence Stakes 1400m Group 2

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 4 of the past 5 winners have been 1st up
  • 4 of the past 5 winners have drawn barrier 6 or closer
  • 2 of the past 5 winners last raced in the Australia Cup
  • 2 of the past 5 winners last raced in the Blamey Stakes
  • 0 of the past 5 winners were mares

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Mourinho – BR 1 59kg SP $8 – 1st up, 21 weeks, 13th Australia Cup 2000m Group 1 Flemington

Star Rolling – BR 10 59kg SP $10 – 1st up, 23 weeks, 9th Australia Cup 2000m Group 1 Flemington

Puissance De Lune – BR 6 59kg SP $3.50 – 1st up, 23 wks, 1st Blamey Stakes 1600m Group 2 Flemington

Second Effort – BR 5 59kg SP $9 – 2nd up, 5 weeks, 6th J Monash Stakes 1100m LR Caulfield

Whobegotyou – BR 3 59kg SP $2.45 – 1st up, 22 weeks, 1st Blamey Stakes 1600m Group 2 Flemington

Major Players 

2. The Cleaner: Resuming after a 35-week injury enforced layoff and stepping out for the Gelagotis stable for the first time. He ran a narrow second to Mourinho in this race last year when he was able to get a relatively easy lead (by his standards). The Cleaner as we knew him would prove very hard to get past in his typical front running style. I’ve rated him one length below where he was this time last year, only because of the additional time between runs so I am very wary of him here. His public trial 3 weeks ago looked impressive.

3. Lord Of The Sky: Had conditions to suit in the Bletchingly Stakes after being gifted the lead on a track that favoured leaders. He steps up an additional 200m and takes on a field with more depth. The race profile also tells us that class gallopers resuming have a great record in this race so there are many reasons why he appeals as a great lay bet on Saturday.

6. Awesome Rock: Went to a new level in the Autumn and raced well first up off a horror draw in the CF Orr Stakes behind Suavito. There’s some hidden merit in his form between 1200-1400m as a younger horse. He’s drawn to get a charmed run in behind a hot tempo and if the stable has kept him fresher this time in he’s a knockout runner at a big price.

11. Mahuta: He returned in the Bletchingly and ran well in a race that did not set up for him. Like we said last time, he’s yet to put the runs on the board at this level but expect him to be much better suited here and he will be ready to win here if good enough. I expect him to drift in the early market and this is D-Day.

12. Suavito: She shocked us all when she returned in the C.F Orr Stakes off a 45 week and put a way a quality Group 1 field at this track and distance. On that day she was able to handle the above average pace and power of the top of them. She is without doubt the one to beat and a repeat of that performance has her a couple of lengths clear of this field. Her recent jump out was flat by her standards and if she still has the zest for racing she’ll be a rock solid BSP favourite.

13. Set Square: She returns off a lengthy break, 40+ weeks after a stress fracture in her cannon bone, but If she has fully recovered I’m convinced she has the ability to run over the top of this field based on form around 1400-1600m. She ran approx. 1.5 seconds faster than the Memsie field (same track & distance) when she ran second first up last time to Abidewithme. Barrier 10 means she’ll be a mile off them but if they go too quick in front, she’ll be the one that’s most advantaged.

14. Miss Rose de Lago: She’s a quality mare with an impressive record at Caulfield (4 starts, 3 wins). The only thing against her on Saturday will be the expected strong tempo which should dull her finishing burst first up.  Great chance but is short enough in early betting.

15. Jameka: The Group 1 VRC Oaks winner from last year had a cracking Autumn despite not breaking through with a victory.  I expect her to finish the race off well as she out trialled Set Square. The big concern is knowing what her target race is and I expect her to peak around Turnbull Stakes day.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Suavito – 4 units at $5 or more.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Awesome Rock – 1 units at $15 or more.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Set Square – 1 units at $26 or more.

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

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