Current Track Rating: Good 4
Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au
Friday 30th – Max 36c, cloudy. 5% chance of rain (0mm)
Saturday 31st – Max 30c, possible shower. 30% chance of rain (0-0.4mm)
R7 Canterbury Classic 1200m LR Handicap
1.Ball Of Muscle – The class galloper of the field but is 18 months between victories. Drops back to listed level after spending the past year racing at group level. He’ll be up and on speed, will run honestly but lacks any real ‘upside’ from a profit perspective so will lay him up to $8.00
6. Flippant – She’s a last start winner of the Flemington Sprint at Listed level during the Spring Carnival and is still lightly raced with just the 11 starts for 5 wins. She’s pretty versatile on both wet and dry tracks, has a strong jockey booking (Blake Shinn) so can measure up with luck.
8. Sirbible – An honest sprinter who backs up from running second in the Razor Sharp Stakes two weeks ago. Will be on pace and is weighted well but expected to drift in the market with the jockey switch from Kerrin McEvoy to Wayne Kerford.
9. His Majesty – Travelled sweetly as the SP favourite in the Razor Sharp but wilted on his run when it looked as though he was about to let down. I think he’s a horse that wants a big field with plenty of natural pace so he can relax and finish off with one final burst. This race looks much more suitable for him and although he will need a stack of luck from gate 1 I think he will go much better this time around. Worth forgiving and could ease to better odds.
13. Grunderzite – Is renowned as ‘the Canterbury specialist’ where he is 6 starts for 5 wins. Returned this time in and has won twice at this track stepping from BM 75 to BM93 grade. Is weighted ideally but will have to do the hard way where he is likely to get posted 3 wide from the outside draw. Despite all this has found this race at the perfect time and looks a good bet at double figures.
14. Le Cordon Bleu – Was beaten just one length over 1100m when first up this prep by the exciting Spieth. That’s a strong formline for this race and also looks fantastic value at around $12 early if you can forgive the last start flop.
15. Denpurr – Another horse with a great chance after returning with two strong wins first up this time in. Drawn well to get a good smother and will be attempting to weave through late. The $21 on offer early looks overs and early shoppers could look at a ‘back to lay’ scenario.
LAY (WIN) Ball Of Muscle for 10 units.