The Betfair Insider: Bendigo, Wednesday 26 October 2016 – Bendigo Cup

Posted: October 25, 2016 at 3:03 pm

Current Track Rating: Soft 5

Rail: +4m 1400m – 700m, True remainder

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 25th – Max 24, partly cloudy. 10% chance of rain

Saturday 26th – Max 22, shower or two. 50% chance of rain (0-1mm)

 

R8 Bendigo Cup Handicap G3 2400m

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 2 of past 5 winners have been first up
  • 1 of past 5 winners have been back in distance from their previous start
  • 4 of past 5 winners have 3 weeks or more between runs
  • 0 of past 5 winners have been the SP favourite

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Rail True, Good 4

1st – The Offer – SP $7.50 59kg BR 7 – 6th up, 1.5 weeks 4th City Tatts Cup LR 2400m Randwick

2nd – Divan – SP $7.50 54kg BR 1 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st BM70 2000m Pakenham

3rd – Kirramosa – SP $5.50 fav 54.5kg BR 2 – 5th up, 3.5 weeks 10th Epsom HCP Gr 1 1600m Randwick

Rail True, Good 3

1st – Bring Something – SP $8 54kg BR 2 – 4th up, 2 weeks 1st BM84 80k 2400m Caulfield

2nd – Massiyn – SP $4.40 54kg BR 6 – 4th up, 5 days 4th Handicap 100k 2040m Moonee Valley

3rd – Order Of The Sun – SP $2.25 fav 54 kg BR – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st BM90 85k 2000m Randwick

Rail True, Good 4

1st – Sertorius – SP $3.80 fav 55.5kg BR 4 – 4th up, 2 weeks 2nd Cranbourne Cup Listed 2025m Cranbourne

2nd – Massiyn – SP $8.50 56.5kg BR 11 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 4th Caulfield Stakes G1 2000m Caulfield

3rd – Kesampour – SP $7 57.5kg BR 9 – 4th up, 3 weeks 5th Herbert Power G2 2400m Caulfield

Puissance De Lune – SP $3.40 fav 54.5kg BR 12 – 4th up, 2 weeks 2nd BM89 50k 2200m WNBL

Tanby – SP $4.00 fav 54kg BR 4 – 6th up, 1 week 2nd Geelong Cup G3 2400m Geelong

Major Players 

1. Howard Be Thy Name: Sent out $4.00 in the Herbert Power Stakes, he had a perfect run ‘1 out 1 back’ in an evenly run race but was left flat footed as the pace went on from the 800m. He finished a disappointing 7.7 lengths from the winner (Assign) with no real excuses. He looks a likely drifter and a LAY at his early market price of $4.00.

2. Bring Something: After a pleasing return first up, Bring Something failed to fire in the Coogny Cup, beaten 12.3 lengths by Vanbrugh. He looks a run behind.

5. Ferro Nero: In hindsight he went around at crazy odds when winning at $41 last start at the Blue Sapphire meeting at Caulfield. He’s no star galloper but has been relaxing beautifully and finishing off well in his races this prep. He finished over the top of Data Point in the G3 Carbine Club Stakes at Randwick, who finished 1.6L behind He’s Our Rokkii. He was strong on the line (11.72 seconds final 200m) last start indicating the step to 2400m looks suitable.

6. Francis Of Assisi: Charlie Appleby’s yard has fired this time in Australia after Qewy saluted in last week’s Geelong Cup. This 7YO has done the majority of his racing over longer distances (3000-4000m) however, using his last start run as a guide, he actually hit the front over 2800m at Goodwood before the likes of Elidor and the afore mentioned Qewy outstayed him over the concluding 200m. That form fits in well for a Bendigo Cup, dropping 6kg here.

8. Our Century: The Lloyd Williams owned Our Century has had two starts in Australia with his latest being a victory in a BM84 at Caulfield over All I Survey and Firenze. He carried an additional 4.5kg on the runner up and drops 4.5kg down to 55kg here on Wednesday. His 0.4 lengths 2nd to Hartnell at Ascot is certainly a salivating form reference albeit three starts back in June 2014. Has to be in the mix with a last start victory at the distance.

9. Second Bullet: Ridden forward last start in the Turnbull Stakes, he dropped out terribly to be beaten by 18 lengths. Not a great platform to come into this race.

 

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Howard Be They Name – 5 units at $5 or less

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Ferro Nero – 2 units at $7 or more.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Francis of Assisi – 2 units at $7 or more.

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

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