The Betfair Insider: Ballarat, Saturday 19th November 2016 – Ballarat Cup

Posted: November 17, 2016 at 3:43 pm

Current Track Rating: Good 3-4

Rail: +2m 450 – Winning Post

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 18th – Max 20. Cloudy 30% chance of a shower in the morning

Saturday 19th – Max 21. Sunny

 

R8 Ballarat Cup Listed 2200m

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 4 of past 5 winners have carried 56.5kg or less
  • 5 of past 5 winners have been males
  • 3 of past 5 winners were 5th up or deeper into their preparation
  • 3 of past 5 winner had their lead up run at Flemington at 1800m or further

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Junoob – SP $17 60kg BR 6 – 7th up, 4 weeks 12th Lexus G3 2500m Flemington

Mujadale – SP $13 55kg BR 4 – 4th up, 2 weeks 1st Ararat Cup 52k 2000m Ararat

The Offer – SP $4.00 fav 54kg BR 8 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 2nd BM85 85k 1800m Rosehill

King Diamond – SP $41 56.5kg BR 6 – 5th up, 3 weeks 1st Jubilee Listed 1800m Flemington

Domesky – SP $6.50 55kg BR 6 – 7th up, 2 weeks 2nd 0-95 101k 2000m Flemington

Major Players 

1. Turnitaround: Had a favourable run in transit in the Eclipse Stakes last weekend. The rise to 2200 is new to him but I’m confident he’ll run it out strongly. The biggest concern is 60kg and the race profile suggests it won’t be easy for him. Looks short enough at $10.

2. Lidari: Also comes from the Eclipse stakes. More suited out to 2200m but stays up in the weights and has drawn wide. Knockout runner but looks under the odds at single figures.

3. Rising Romance: Bounced back strongly from her failure in the Myer Classic to be beaten under 4 lengths in the Matriarch stakes. If she improves off that again she can be in the finish but with 58.5kg she may lack the killer punch.

4. Taiyoo: Good win in the Kyneton Cup with 60kg and gets some relief here. Has won out to 2600m so will keep hitting the line. Holds his form and will be in a winning position looking at the speed map.

6. Auvray: Another through the Eclipse that will improve out to 2200m. May get too far out of his ground but if they run along it’s easy to see a big spike in rating fourth up.

9. Lord Van Percy: Improved dramatically from the Sale Cup into the Eclipse and finally getting up to his right trip. Looks close to his peak but may need one more run so thinking a race like the Pakenham Cup could be Grand Final day for him.

10.Observational: Hype runner that found has plenty of hard luck stories due to his racing pattern of settling back in the field. His last start effort behind Boom time was full of merit without luck and now rises from 1600m to 2200m. Is lightly raced and is a knockout down in the weights.

14. Nozomi: Was there to win at Flemington over 2000m but looked very weak through the line. I’d need to see a gear change before I could back him.

15. Scherzoso: Looks a big player here dropping from 60kg in the BM90 at Flemington over 1800m where he fought on well after being up and on the speed. I expect them to ride him back from the wide gate which is been the best pattern for his career PB performances. He’s a genuine 2000m-2400m horse so I’m confident he’ll be well backed from $15 in early betting.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Scherzoso – 3 units at $10 or more.

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